资产泡沫化与经济消长

近10年来，为东亚缔造繁荣局面的日本和中国台湾经济竞由绚丽变为黯淡的事实，令不少人诧异。难道这就是中国人常说的“三十年河东，三十年河西”的写照?我经常思考这个问题。为了寻求它的答案，我们不妨从二者经济发展的主导部门去观察。毋庸讳言。

Cointegration analysis with structural changes between consumption and economic growth in China

In order to investigate the existence of a stable long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and consumption in China, the relationship between the gross domestic product （GDP） and consumption in China was investigated by the cointegration analysis method. Using the Engle-Granger （EG） test and considering the possibility of structural changes, the impact of external economic shocks on the long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and consumption in China was analyzed. Analysis results show that without considering structural changes, the EG test cannot detect cointegration in the series subjected to structural changes; in considering structural changes, cointegration is successfully detected by specifying the dummy variable. In addition, the error correction models were constructed in different periods. This study verifies the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and consumption in China, and this relationship has significantly changed in 1989 and 1997, respectively.

LOCATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH:CASE STUDY IN CHINA

This paper explores how location could affect economic growth and it has always been omitted in economic analysis. Geographic factors can affect economic activities. Three mechanisms of location affecting economic growth have been studied: consumption, production and migration. The initial superior location will take such advantages as lower transport costs and lower price level, so it could have higher consumption utility, higher productivity, and attract more human capital, then lead higher growth. Those regions with the superior location will have higher utility due to more product varities and the comparative lower price, and higher wage due to the production technology, and it would attract more individuals with higher human capital to move to this location. It is a kind of agglomeration, meaning the superior location will hold more advantages and higher growth rate, otherwise those locations with poor geographic factor will be even worse. Based on Chinese provincial economic growth experiences of these years, this paper does some empirical analysis by regressing on some variables including the geographic ones. In this paper, the dummy variables and population density are used to measure the location factor. And we find evidences supporting the view that dominant locations such as coastal areas grow faster, on the contrary,middle and western provinces grow slower. Location does affect economic growth.

Threshold effects of renewable energy consumption on economic growth under energy transformation

China proposed that non-fossil energy consumption account for 20% in total energy consumption. EU increased the target of renewable energy consumption share from 27% to 35% in 2030.Energy transformation and increasing renewable energy consumption are important energy strategies for all countries at present. Then, is the impact of renewable energy consumption on economic growth positive or negative? Are there any differences in the direction or magnitude of the impact among countries or regions, and what are the determinants behind them? We apply panel threshold effect model to test threshold effects of renewable energy consumption on economic growth of EU. Empirical result shows: first, the impact of renewable energy consumption on economic growth is negative. Second, renewable energy consumption has significant threshold effects on economic growth. Third, now, energy consumption intensity and GDP per capita of most EU members are in the appropriate threshold regimes. In contrast, more and more EU members are in the high-subsidy group. Fourth, the average annual growth rates of renewable energy consumption showed no significant difference between high-subsidy and lowsubsidy countries from 1990 to 2014. Therefore, subsidy with high economic cost is not the onlyeffective means to increase renewable energy consumption.

Influence of stocking density on growth, body composition and energy budget of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar L. in recirculating aquaculture systems

Atlantic salmon Salmo salar were reared at four stocking densities--high density D1 （final density -39 kg/m^3）, medium densities DE （-29 kg/m^3） and D3 （~19 kg/m^3）, and low density D4 （-12 kg/m^3）- for 40 days to investigate the effect of stocking density on their growth performance, body composition and energy budgets. Stocking density did not significantly affect specific growth rate in terms of weight （SGRw） but did affect specific growth rate in terms of energy （SGRe）. Stocking density significantly influenced the ration level （RLw and RLe）, feed conversion ratio （FCRw and FCRe） and apparent digestibility rate （ADR）. Ration level and FCRw tended to increase with increasing density. Fish at the highest density D~ and lowest density D4 showed lower FCRe and higher ADR than at medium densities. Stocking density significantly affected protein and energy contents of the body but did not affect its moisture, lipid, or ash contents. The expenditure of energy for metabolism in the low-density and high-density groups was lower than that in the medium-density groups. Stocking density affected energy utilization from the feces but had no effect on excretion rate. The greater energy allocation to growth at high density and low density may be attributed to reduced metabolic rate and increased apparent digestibility rate. These findings provide information that will assist selection of suitable stocking densities in the Atlantic-salmon-farming industry.

Elasticity Ratio of Resource Consumption and the Resource Consumption

Today the resources are becoming scarcer, which should not be regarded as unexhausted any more. Correspondingly, the production would be constrained by the scarcity of resources clearly. Then the economic researchers would pay much more attention to reducing the consumption of natural resources in the future. Therefore this paper brings foreword the conception of elasticity ratio of resource consumption based on the concept of elasticity and analyzes the relationship between the parameters. For the certain relationships between the elasticity ratio of resource consumption and resource consumption, this paper will try to reveal, to keep economy growing while resource consumption reducing, what conditions should be met as to the relationships among resource productivity, its growth rate, energy saving efficiency, economic growth rate and elasticity ratio of resource consumption. This paper proves the relationship between the China＇s energy consumption and economy growth using statistic data from 1978 to 2003.

Unit GDP Energy Consumption in 2006:Moving from Increase to Decline

On July 12, Xie Fuzhan, Commissioner of National Bureau of Statistics of China attended the press conference held by State Council Information Office, and delivered the report on China＇s national unit GDP energy consumption in 2006, presenting with major indicators of unit GDP energy consumption both at national and regional levels in the year 2006.

China＇s Contributions to the World： Economic Growth, Resource . Consumption and Global Imbalance

This paper makes systematic observations of China＇s contributions to global macroeconomic growth and bulk commodity consumption. Our observations suggest that while China＇s economic size is relatively small on a per capita basis, its contributions are large in terms of overall volume; moreover, the economy has experienced tremendous growth. Quantifying these characteristics that are unique to China＇s development creates a realistic background upon which China can re-examine its trade and economic policies and strategic thinking.

Don＇t Overlook GDP and Investment： An Analysis of China＇s Current Economic Trend

In this paper, we first examine various causes of China＇s unexpected low economic growth rate since the beginning of 2012. Particularly, we propose the possibility of one tendency masking the other tendency. That is, there is a tendency of neglecting and downplaying GDP while making fewer efforts to develop economy in some regions that oppose GDP worship and irrational pursuit of and competition for GDP,, which deserves our full attention. We further propose in this paper that the decline of China＇s potential economic growth rate should keep a gradual process and the government should favor consumption while not overlooking investment, given that a certain amount of moderate investment will remain the key impetus to China＇s economic growth over a certain period in the future.

Low-carbon scenario and technologies in modern city——Case study of Shenyang

From a multi-dimensional perspective of economic development,carbon dioxide and industrial pollutant emission and resource consumption in the case study of Shenyang,this paper analyzes the resource consumption and environmental impact in the process of urban economic development and low-carbon transition and evaluates the emission reduction potential and scenario of various technologies. The results show that city plays a key role in global low-carbon economic construction,and it is pointed out that emission reduction technology in urban scale can reduce total amount of carbon emission to substantial extent. From the aspect of future development,the input of technology and economic growth pattern should be strengthened so as to realize economic development as well as the total amount reduction of pollutant emission.

Research on Tax Preference Policy of Venture Capital

In the last few decades, the economy increased rapidly, but the rapid growth is at the cost of high consumption of resources and high pollution of environment. It is imperative to transform the economic growth pattern. Tax policy relating to venture capital is very important to build innovative country and encourage the development of venture capital. Based on the background, the paper researches the tax preference policy of venture capital in developed countries and in our country, and draws relevant conclusions.

Empirical Analysis on the Relation Between Electronic Industry Development and Energy Consumption

Data from 1996 to 2012 is used to conduct co-integration test, VAR model and Granger causality test in order to examine the relation between China＇ s electronic industry added-value and energy consumption. The result of co-integration test illustrates the long-term equilibrium of the relationship between the electronic industry development and energy consumption. The dynamic analysis of VAR model shows that there is a positive response from the economic growth of the electronics industry to energy consumption, while the impact of energy consumption on economic growth is a slightly negative response. It has been proved that the electronic industry development and energy consumption are mutual Granger causality. According to these conclusions, some suggestions are proposed in the end, including accelerating the development of China＇ s electronic industry to promote high-teeh electronic products, improving energy efficiency, enhancing research efficacy, creasing the effort for energy development and implementing rational energy policies.

The Transformation of government economy management function on a sustainable development of the environment

The ever-changing and developing ecological environment determines the functions of government to be followed by changes in economic management. The pursuit of short-term economic growth, ignoring the social promotion, will lead to excessive consume the earth＇ s resources and deteriorate environment, which pose a serious threat for the overall development of the human. Reality shows that the traditional development model faced with severe challenges. Thus, to solve environmental problems and achieve sustainable human development has become starting point and destination for the world＇ s governments to consider all issues. Government, as the actors on the path of sustainable development, is imperative to change the government＇ s economic management functions to genuinely achieve economic, social and environmental comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable development. Implementation the strategy of sustainable development requires the Chinese government at least to adopt the ideology of overall and coordinated development in the head, follow the objective law and transfer the functions of government management of the economy on the basis of sustainable development.

The analysis of the influence factors of China＇s real estate prices

The real estate market is an ilnportant part of China＇s socialist market economy. Real estate price xs not only a profound role on the level of consumption of the residents, but a profound role on the steady development of the banking sector-based financial sector. Real estate price have a significant impact not only on the development ofmacroeconomic stability, but on the safety of financial system. Chinese economy is currently on the period of transition from investment and export promotion of economic growth mode to a demand-led growth, it is an important role to China＇s economic growth for sustained and healthy development of real estate market.

Structural Decomposition Analysis of the Decline in China's CO_2 Emission Intensity 2005–2010

Here we utilize input-output tables for 2005 and 2010 to calculate the change in carbon dioxide emission intensity. Results show that total carbon dioxide emissions were 6.79 and 9.30 billion tons, and carbon dioxide emission intensity was 0.37 and 0.33 ton per thousand CNY in 2005 and 2010, respectively. Carbon dioxide emission intensity declined 11% over these five years. We used structural decomposition analysis modeling to measure the effect of four factors on this reduction in intensity. We found that the contribution values of energy structure, energy efficiency, economic growth mode and economic structure were -0.001, -0.102, 0.050, and 0.013 ton per thousand CNY, respectively. Changes in energy efficiency and energy structure are major factors promoting decreases in carbon dioxide emission intensity; the effect of the former is more distinct than the latter. Economic growth mode and economic structure are major factors that increase carbon dioxide emission intensity, whereby the effect of the former is more distinct than the latter.

Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Agglomeration of China

Nowadays, increased attention is being paid to the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth. This paper attempts to examine the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth for China＇s Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei agglomeration, using annual data covering the period 1982- 2008. In this study, unit root tests, the Johansen co-integration test, and the Granger causality test are applied. The empirical results indicate that the two series （electricity consumption and economic growth） of the three locales （Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei） are non-stationary. But first differences of the two series are stationary. The results of the Johansen co-integration test indicate that electricity consumption and economic growth are co-integrated in Hebei and Tianjin while this is not the case in Beijing. The Granger causality test implies that there is causality running from electricity consumption to economic growth in all of the three locales. Causality running from economic growth to electricity consumption is found in Hebei and Beijing while this is not the case in Tianjin. This means that an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic growth and that economic growth also stimulates further electricity consumption in Hebei and Beijing. But in Tianjin, an increase in electricity consumption directly affects economic growth while economic growth cannot affect electricity consumption. These findings can provide useful information for local governments of the three locales to formulate sustainable energy and economic policies. The study is of great significance for circular economy and building a resource-conserving society.

China＇s Path to Overcoming the Double Middle-income Traps

China is at a crucial stage of overcoming the middle-income trap, with the factors that drive economic growth having undergone significant changes, and domestic consumption playing a more important role in economic growth. It is necessary, at this point, to promote mass consumption by expanding the middle-income group. The present paper puts forward the concept of the ＂double middle-income traps.＂ This refers to the situation in which an economy＇s per capita output stagnates and the size of the middle- income group is unable to expand for an extended period of time. These two factors are closely related. Based on data from the Chinese Social Survey conducted by the Institute of Sociology at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the present paper analyzes the scale and development of middle-income groups, and the relationship among middle- income groups, the middle-class and middle-class identity. The marginal consumption propensities of middle-income groups are also considered. The findings of the paper indicate that the expansion of the middle-income group plays an important role in promoting mass consumption, maintaining continuous and stable economic growth, and overcoming the double middle-income traps.

Why the Spending Spree?

In the first quarter,China’s retail sales of consumer goods totaled 8.58 trillion yuan（$1.25tril ion）,up by 10 percent over a year ago,according to the National Bureau of Statistics（NBS）on April 17.During this period,consumption contributed 77.2 percent to China’s economic growth.Days before the NBS figures were released,

A DIFFERENTIAL GAME MODEL FOR A DEVELOPING AND A DEVELOPED COUNTRY

A differential game (DG) model for a developing and a developed country is considered.Each player makes decisions about how much resource to be used to restrict the opponent's developmentso as to maximize his weighted sum of current consumption and final output.Current consumption isassumed to be preferred to final output for both players.The developing country is assumed to havea higher economic growth rate and a higher preference to final output,whereas the developed countryis assumed to have a higher initial income and a higher efficiency in restricting his opponent.Thisproblem is investigated under three kinds of information structures,i.e.,a zerosum,a nonzero-sum,anda Stackelberg game.Open-loop equilibrium solutions are obtained for all the three cases.Economicimplications of the result are provided.