人口现代化效应研究——基于人口控制力的分析视觉

人口现代化效应是人口现代化研究的重要命题。本文首次引入人口控制力概念来阐释人口现代化的经济社会发展效应(或经济社会发展力)。人口控制力主要由生育文化力、政府控制力构成:生育文化力是生育文化对生育行为的影响和作用力量,它作用于经济社会发展所产生的效应通常表现在四个方面;政府控制力是政府为实现其人口战略目标和人口经济规划去干预人口运行、调控人口变动的能力。

Comprehensive Measurement for Carrying Capacity of Resources and Environment of City Clusters in Central China

Studying the carrying capacity of resources and environment of city clusters in the central China has important practical guidance significance for promoting the healthy, sustainable and stable development of this region. According to their influencing factors and reciprocity mechanism, using system dynamics approaches, this paper built a SD model for measuring the carrying capacity of resources and environment of the city clusters in the central China, and through setting different development models, the comprehensive measurement analysis on the carrying capacity was carried out. The results show that the model of promoting socio-economic development under the protection of resources and environment is the optimal model for promoting the harmony development of resources, environment, society and economy in the city clusters. According to this model, the optimum population scale of the city clusters in 2020 is 42.80×106 persons, and the moderate economic development scale is 22.055×1012 yuan (RMB). In 1996-2020, the carrying capacity of resources and environment in the city clusters took on obvious phase-change characteristics. During the studied period, it is basically at the initial development stage, and will come through the development process from slow development to speedup development.

Evaluation and Analysis of Provincial Differences in Resources and Environment Carrying Capacity in China

Resources and environment carrying capacity is central to not only regional sustainable development but also major function-oriented zoning. This paper presents an evaluation index system for resources and environment carrying capacity based on four aspects of carrying capacity(i.e., water resources, land resources, the environment, and ecosystems) by using a square deviation decision-making method, and on the basis of above effort evaluates the resources and environment carrying capacity across 31 provincial regions in China(not including Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan regions of China). In addition, this paper evaluates the current state of socio-economic development, and analyzes the spatial distribution of resources and environment pressure. The results showed that distinct spatial differences in resources and environment carrying capacity and pressure across provincial regions. Resources and environment pressure is affected by both comprehensive resources and environment carrying capacity and socio-economic development. Regions subjected to lower degrees of resources and environment pressure will be restricted by resources and environmental problems through future courses of development owing to excessively low carrying capacities. By contrast, regions with higher comprehensive resources and environment carrying capacity will be subjected to excessively high levels of resources and environment pressure because of rapid socio-economic development. Both of resources and environment carrying capacity and pressure must therefore be considered in the allocation of country-binding targets to provincial regions.

Dynamics of the Coordination of Economy-Society and Resource-Environment in Shandong Peninsula,China

Shandong Peninsula,as a more developed region in Shandong Province even the east coast of China,is facing challenges from resources and environment pressures.This paper tried to track and assess the coordination status and the dynamic between resource-environment and economy-society systems in Shandong Peninsula during 2001-2008 in order to provide decision support for regional sustainability.An appraisal index system was built including five aspects of harmony degree(A),sustainability degree(B),opening degree(C),stability degree(D) and controllability degree(E).The results showed that:1) The coordination level of resource-environment and economy-society in Shandong Peninsula has continuously grown,and it has undergone three stages:no coordinated degree(2001-2002),weak coordinated degree(2003-2006) and basically coordinated degree(2007-2008).2) Five indexes of criterion hierarchy also increased overall,but each index showed different trends.Harmony degree,sustainability degree and opening degree rose all the time,while stability degree and controllability degree alternately rose and fell.The improvement of controllability degree was the slowest.3) The aggravating trend of environmental pollution was slowing down.The economic growth was driven by industrial growth and urbanization typically and investment was still the main force to pull the regional economic growth.At the same time,technology and education were becoming more and more important for economic growth.The level of foreign capital utility declined and the geographical advantage of Shandong Peninsula was exerted.Meanwhile some characteristics of knowledge economy were presenting.Water resources become the main constraint factor of fast development in Shandong Peninsula.It is necessary to further strengthen the coordination ability of government on regional sustainable development.

Impact of Climate Change on Urban Agglomerations in China’s Coastal Region

Climate change and urbanization issues are the two key factors that make humans liable to be affected by disasters, which are overlapped in urban agglomeration. The five big urban agglomerations of China with strong economic power are the important engines for national economic and social development. However, being in the sea-land mutual interaction belts with a vast hazard-bearing body, they are affected by sea-land compound disasters, and are liable to suffer heavy disaster losses with climate change. It is suggested that government departments concerned should fully recognize the impact of climate change on coastal urban agglomerations, propose strategies as soon as possible, and integrate the impact of climate change and adaptation countermeasures into the various kinds of social-economic development plans for coastal urban regions.

Assessing Anthropogenic Pressure and Its Impact on Hippophae salicifolia Pockets in Central Himalaya,Uttarakhand

Natural habitat ofHippophae salicifolia in Central Himalaya is continuously being degraded due to habitat destruction and harvesting. Although logging is prohibited, habitat destruction has increased because of regular road construction, repairing and broadening activities. In addition, Hippophae resources are continuously being harvested by lopping （both partial and complete） for fuelwood, fodder and fruits in higher Himalayan region. This paper presents a detailed analysis of relationship between density, demographic structure, and harvesting of H. salicifolia growing pockets in the five major valleys （Gangotri, Yamunotri, Niti, Mana and Bhyundhar） of Uttarakhand in Central Himalaya, India. A total of 12o quadrats were laid randomly to study population structure, regeneration, sex ratio and lopping using quadrats of lOO m2 （a4 in each valley） in Hippophae growing patches. Our study shows that the density, size distribution, and regeneration of Hippophae vary considerably among the major valleys. Trees in the Yamunotri valley have the highest density of large trees but the lowest density of seedlings. In contrast, there are few large trees but many seedlings in the Mana valley. The number and size of lopped trees also varied among the valleys. Lopping was greatest in Bhyundhar （11.4%） and Yamunotri （19.7%） and least in Niti （3.9%）. The size of lopped trees differed substantially as well. In Bhyundhar, the largest trees were taken while saplings were taken in Yamunotri. Our study revealed that unsustainable harvesting from plants for fuel, fencing and fruits along with road broadening activities in Central Himalaya are the main cause ofhabitat destruction. Our research highlights the urgent need for in-situ and ex-situ conservation of Hippophae salicifolia so that it＇s potential can be harnessed sustainably by rural hill societies for their socio-economic development.

Women Empowerment in the Arab Region： Between the Anvil of Illiteracy and the Hammer of Passive Representative Bureaucracy

This paper emphasizes on enacting comprehensive mainstreaming institutional mechanisms to promote the role of women in socio-economic development in the Arab region. Sustainable development could never take place unless both the government and civil society are committed towards women empowerment and gender parity to achieve gender mainstreaming. However, cultural legacy, with its socioeconomic and political dimensions, is envisaged as the most challenging impediment. There are three critical areas of concern of substantive nature, which are high rates of women illiteracy, passive representative bureaucracy, as a result of underrepresentation at decision-making levels, as well as gender disparity. To investigate women empowerment challenges in the region, the study first presents the multifaceted hurdle of cultural legacy and identifies the relevant social, economic and political challenges from a multidisciplinary perspective. Thereafter, it looks at two inseparable issues facing women in the Arab region, illiteracy and underrepresentation at decision-making levels. The study, then, indicates the pressing need for policy changes to fill up the massive gender gap existing in the majority of Arab States, where not only a description of gender disparity profile of the Arab region is presented but also a comparative outlook vis-a-vis global trends is highlighted. Finally, the research identifies the indispensible roles of both the government and civil society to address key challenges in synchrony. It does not only call for placing women empowerment among the top priorities on the agenda of policy-makers in setting development plans, but also reiterates the significant role of civil society institutions in the areas of illiteracy eradication, civic education, and women fights advocacy. In this context, a framework of recommended policy actions is presented in an attempt to set effective women empowerment mechanisms to achieve gender mainstreaming and hence contribute to sustainable development.