The generally used methods of forecasting coal requirement quantity include the analogy method, the outside push method and the cause effect analysis method. However, the precision of forecasting results using these m...The generally used methods of forecasting coal requirement quantity include the analogy method, the outside push method and the cause effect analysis method. However, the precision of forecasting results using these methods is lower. This paper uses the grey system theory, and sets up grey forecasting model GM (1, 3) to coal requirement quantity. The forecasting result for the Chinese coal requirement quantity coincides with the actual values, and this shows that the model is reliable. Finally, this model are used to forecast Chinese coal requirement quantity in the future ten years.展开更多
The System Resource Constraint Theory intends to research growth of economy under different classes of system resource constraint. By analogy between ecology system and economic system, from the angle of total nature ...The System Resource Constraint Theory intends to research growth of economy under different classes of system resource constraint. By analogy between ecology system and economic system, from the angle of total nature resource, total supply ability and total market volume, the theory focuses on the constraint condition and development characteristic of economy as well as the various game characteristics among economies such as independence, competition, and joint competition. According to the math deduction, the author finds that Logistic model is relative with Marthus＇s model and Zero-growth model.展开更多
The paper tries to explore circular economy from the viewpoint of the system theory. Circular economy is a kind of complicated economic activity, and it is a wholly new ecotype economy proposed by Western countries af...The paper tries to explore circular economy from the viewpoint of the system theory. Circular economy is a kind of complicated economic activity, and it is a wholly new ecotype economy proposed by Western countries after they had summed up many experiences and lessons from traditional economy. It is an entirety and has many layers. It keeps an open and dynamic balance. Because the system theory is the theoretical foundation of circular economy, we should systemically analyze and study circular economy from the macroscopic view, correctly grasp its operational laws, improve its service functions, and realize human beings' sustainable development. The paper introduces the content and general characteristics of the system theory and the idea of circular economy. Then it analyzes circular economy based on the system theory. The paper concludes that the integration of circular economy and the system theory can promote the functions of circular economy.展开更多
Choosing a strategy for sustainable development is national level aimed at the simultaneous fulfillment of economic, a fundamental problem that requires non-trivial approaches at the social and environmental goals. Th...Choosing a strategy for sustainable development is national level aimed at the simultaneous fulfillment of economic, a fundamental problem that requires non-trivial approaches at the social and environmental goals. This contradiction is possible to be adequately described in the complex game-theoretic models. But analysis of them is complicated by the problems of algorithmic solvability and the payoff functions construction. Also, the volume of data required creates considerable complexity increased by the conditions of situations uncertainty and conflict. At the same time, international organizations, such as UN （United Nations）, ITU （International Telecommunications Union）, are widely used index system. Indices, built on the aggregation of elementary indicators, allow the estimation of the components of the system and its overall development. The paper discusses the basic concepts of game-theoretic approach to the problems of finding strategies for sustainable development, using indicative analysis techniques. In the proposed approach, estimating of sustainability is considered as the result of finding the optimal values of the payoff functions in general game-theoretical model where the players are matched indices. The interests of the player are to increase of the corresponding index and the optimal situation is implemented as a set of optimal payoff functions values. This allows switching from processing of large amounts of data describing the behavior of the ecological-economic system by the aid of indicators to aggregate estimations, which significantly reduce the sample, and also facilitates the interpretation of the results.展开更多
文摘The generally used methods of forecasting coal requirement quantity include the analogy method, the outside push method and the cause effect analysis method. However, the precision of forecasting results using these methods is lower. This paper uses the grey system theory, and sets up grey forecasting model GM (1, 3) to coal requirement quantity. The forecasting result for the Chinese coal requirement quantity coincides with the actual values, and this shows that the model is reliable. Finally, this model are used to forecast Chinese coal requirement quantity in the future ten years.
文摘The System Resource Constraint Theory intends to research growth of economy under different classes of system resource constraint. By analogy between ecology system and economic system, from the angle of total nature resource, total supply ability and total market volume, the theory focuses on the constraint condition and development characteristic of economy as well as the various game characteristics among economies such as independence, competition, and joint competition. According to the math deduction, the author finds that Logistic model is relative with Marthus＇s model and Zero-growth model.
基金supported by national soft science item of sciencetechnology department in China (Grant No: 2005DGQ4D130).
文摘The paper tries to explore circular economy from the viewpoint of the system theory. Circular economy is a kind of complicated economic activity, and it is a wholly new ecotype economy proposed by Western countries after they had summed up many experiences and lessons from traditional economy. It is an entirety and has many layers. It keeps an open and dynamic balance. Because the system theory is the theoretical foundation of circular economy, we should systemically analyze and study circular economy from the macroscopic view, correctly grasp its operational laws, improve its service functions, and realize human beings' sustainable development. The paper introduces the content and general characteristics of the system theory and the idea of circular economy. Then it analyzes circular economy based on the system theory. The paper concludes that the integration of circular economy and the system theory can promote the functions of circular economy.
文摘Choosing a strategy for sustainable development is national level aimed at the simultaneous fulfillment of economic, a fundamental problem that requires non-trivial approaches at the social and environmental goals. This contradiction is possible to be adequately described in the complex game-theoretic models. But analysis of them is complicated by the problems of algorithmic solvability and the payoff functions construction. Also, the volume of data required creates considerable complexity increased by the conditions of situations uncertainty and conflict. At the same time, international organizations, such as UN （United Nations）, ITU （International Telecommunications Union）, are widely used index system. Indices, built on the aggregation of elementary indicators, allow the estimation of the components of the system and its overall development. The paper discusses the basic concepts of game-theoretic approach to the problems of finding strategies for sustainable development, using indicative analysis techniques. In the proposed approach, estimating of sustainability is considered as the result of finding the optimal values of the payoff functions in general game-theoretical model where the players are matched indices. The interests of the player are to increase of the corresponding index and the optimal situation is implemented as a set of optimal payoff functions values. This allows switching from processing of large amounts of data describing the behavior of the ecological-economic system by the aid of indicators to aggregate estimations, which significantly reduce the sample, and also facilitates the interpretation of the results.
