The purpose of this study is to analyze economic impacts of reducing greenhouse gases emissions significantly. A large amount of emissions reductions are required throughout this century to avoid dangerous climate cha...The purpose of this study is to analyze economic impacts of reducing greenhouse gases emissions significantly. A large amount of emissions reductions are required throughout this century to avoid dangerous climate change, and understanding the economic consequences under such situations is important and meaningful. The AIM/CGE [Global] model, a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model on a global scale, is applied to analyze carbon prices and changes in GDP when implementing five policy scenarios represented by emissions pathways, respectively. As a result of the analysis, higher carbon prices and larger decreases in GDP compared to the baseline emissions scenario are observed when emissions are reduced more deeply. However, such GDP losses are rather small and insignificant compared to the GDP growth observed throughout the century. These results suggest that although it is challenging to reduce emissions until the level to avoid dangerous climate change, there is a sufficient possibility to achieve it from economic perspectives.展开更多
We evaluate economic and environmental impacts of climate change mitigation in a country scale considering various time horizons in the analysis applying a single-country dynamic computable general equilibrium model w...We evaluate economic and environmental impacts of climate change mitigation in a country scale considering various time horizons in the analysis applying a single-country dynamic computable general equilibrium model with endogenous technological change. Although there is a possibility that Gross Domestic Product （GDP） becomes larger for the abatement cases than the baseline case in the earlier years, it tends to be lower than that in the later years. The longer the time horizon and/or the more severe the abatement, the larger the negative impacts will be. When subsidizing R＆D investment, increase in GDP compared to the baseline case is realized in the middle of the time horizon, and the larger increase tends to be observed for the longer-term cases. These results would be due to technological change induced by the subsidies and emission abatement. Environmental indicators are also improved. We showed that the results were influenced by the target time horizon when using an intertemporal dynamic model.展开更多
文摘The purpose of this study is to analyze economic impacts of reducing greenhouse gases emissions significantly. A large amount of emissions reductions are required throughout this century to avoid dangerous climate change, and understanding the economic consequences under such situations is important and meaningful. The AIM/CGE [Global] model, a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model on a global scale, is applied to analyze carbon prices and changes in GDP when implementing five policy scenarios represented by emissions pathways, respectively. As a result of the analysis, higher carbon prices and larger decreases in GDP compared to the baseline emissions scenario are observed when emissions are reduced more deeply. However, such GDP losses are rather small and insignificant compared to the GDP growth observed throughout the century. These results suggest that although it is challenging to reduce emissions until the level to avoid dangerous climate change, there is a sufficient possibility to achieve it from economic perspectives.
文摘We evaluate economic and environmental impacts of climate change mitigation in a country scale considering various time horizons in the analysis applying a single-country dynamic computable general equilibrium model with endogenous technological change. Although there is a possibility that Gross Domestic Product （GDP） becomes larger for the abatement cases than the baseline case in the earlier years, it tends to be lower than that in the later years. The longer the time horizon and/or the more severe the abatement, the larger the negative impacts will be. When subsidizing R＆D investment, increase in GDP compared to the baseline case is realized in the middle of the time horizon, and the larger increase tends to be observed for the longer-term cases. These results would be due to technological change induced by the subsidies and emission abatement. Environmental indicators are also improved. We showed that the results were influenced by the target time horizon when using an intertemporal dynamic model.
