The economic crisis, which has spread all over the world, soon has become a major scoop for all media. We hear about the effects of the economic crisis on a daily basis----countries going bankrupt, toppled governments...The economic crisis, which has spread all over the world, soon has become a major scoop for all media. We hear about the effects of the economic crisis on a daily basis----countries going bankrupt, toppled governments, high unemployment rate, lay-offs, and suicides caused by hopeless situation. Montenegrin media also pay considerable attention to economic problems. However, judging by the headlines, the media have no aim to provide citizens with objective reporting of the circumstances in the country. Instead, in the circumstances of economic crisis and depending on their editorial policy, they are trying to manipulate the public. Some portray the situation better than it actually is, failing to provide realistic information of the issues such as unemployment rate, inflation, average wages, and protests of dissatisfied citizens, while the others are focused on attacking their political opponents by hyping up the effects of economic crisis and portraying the events in the worst possible light. Basically, both are driven primarily by their own interests and not by the interests of the citizens.展开更多
Recently, much dispute has occurred about the validity of the New Keynesian model from both theoretical and empirical views. However, a few studies have analyzed this model from the empirical perspective. Few other st...Recently, much dispute has occurred about the validity of the New Keynesian model from both theoretical and empirical views. However, a few studies have analyzed this model from the empirical perspective. Few other studies have analyzed this model directly or nearly directly. This article empirically examines the New Keynesian model focusing on inflation forecast. Generalized method of moments (GMM) is used to examine whether the typical Keynesian model with Taylor rule is empirically appropriate for the US, UK, Euro area, and Japan. The results showed: (1) the New Keynesian model fits well in most cases and explains the real economy well. Taylor rule also fits well for most cases; (2) Rational expectations for inflation rates may not be useful based on this model When AR (1) (time series analysis) model is used to capture inflation expectations instead of one-time ahead real values, the model fits well. With measured expectations, the relative weight of the forward-looking terms increase on the cost of lagged inflation and output terms, even up to the point at which the lagged inflation terms are no longer needed to rescue the new Keynesian model; and (3) Forward-looking variables play more important roles than backward-looking ones in economic activity. Results with expectations with forward-looking terms perform better in general. This New Keynesian model may reduce the importance of lagged output in some cases展开更多
文摘The economic crisis, which has spread all over the world, soon has become a major scoop for all media. We hear about the effects of the economic crisis on a daily basis----countries going bankrupt, toppled governments, high unemployment rate, lay-offs, and suicides caused by hopeless situation. Montenegrin media also pay considerable attention to economic problems. However, judging by the headlines, the media have no aim to provide citizens with objective reporting of the circumstances in the country. Instead, in the circumstances of economic crisis and depending on their editorial policy, they are trying to manipulate the public. Some portray the situation better than it actually is, failing to provide realistic information of the issues such as unemployment rate, inflation, average wages, and protests of dissatisfied citizens, while the others are focused on attacking their political opponents by hyping up the effects of economic crisis and portraying the events in the worst possible light. Basically, both are driven primarily by their own interests and not by the interests of the citizens.
文摘Recently, much dispute has occurred about the validity of the New Keynesian model from both theoretical and empirical views. However, a few studies have analyzed this model from the empirical perspective. Few other studies have analyzed this model directly or nearly directly. This article empirically examines the New Keynesian model focusing on inflation forecast. Generalized method of moments (GMM) is used to examine whether the typical Keynesian model with Taylor rule is empirically appropriate for the US, UK, Euro area, and Japan. The results showed: (1) the New Keynesian model fits well in most cases and explains the real economy well. Taylor rule also fits well for most cases; (2) Rational expectations for inflation rates may not be useful based on this model When AR (1) (time series analysis) model is used to capture inflation expectations instead of one-time ahead real values, the model fits well. With measured expectations, the relative weight of the forward-looking terms increase on the cost of lagged inflation and output terms, even up to the point at which the lagged inflation terms are no longer needed to rescue the new Keynesian model; and (3) Forward-looking variables play more important roles than backward-looking ones in economic activity. Results with expectations with forward-looking terms perform better in general. This New Keynesian model may reduce the importance of lagged output in some cases