储蓄率与经济增长的关系研究

本文采用了1992到2012年间国内生产总值指数、消费总额、劳动就业人数等数据,来研究储蓄与经济增长之间的关系。本文首先对所采用的数据序列进行协整检验,以验证它们之间存在某种长期均衡关系。为检验经济增长和储蓄之间的关系,在长期均衡关系的假设下对国内生产总值增长率和储蓄增长率进行格兰杰因果关系检验,结果显示储蓄是经济增长的格兰杰原因。

一类非均衡经济的稳定增长

本文运用非均衡经济思想,提出并讨论了描述某种形式的社会主义经济体制改革时期的一类宏观经济模型.首先对所讨论的经济体制作了明确的约定.在此基础上建立了一种短缺信号与价格信号双重调节的宏观经济模型.其次,通过对模型的分析,指出了模型的非 Walras 性质,阐明了在这种经济体制下短缺均衡轨道的存在性;并抓住经济增长率与短缺率这两个基本概念,从数学和经济两个角度讨论了短缺均衡形成的条件,形成过程及稳定性;还研究了各类经济参数的调整对均衡位置的不同影响和对实现政策目标的不同效果.

Supply-Side Structural Reforms and China's Potential Economic Growth Rate

This paper examines the effect of supply-side structural reforms on China＇s potential economic growth rate in the coming decade according to the data the authors have gathered. Under the rapid growth scenario with the implementation of supply-side structural reforms, China＇s potential economic growth rate will reach an average of 6.5% and 5.8% respectively in the 13th Five-year Plan （2016-2020） and 14th Five-year Plan （2021-2025） periods. These rates are 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points higher, respectively, than that under the baseline scenario with the inertia of historic trends. In implementing supply-side structural reforms, China must transform governmental functions, break monopolies, create a comprehensive competitive market environment, foster the creation of pro-innovation mechanisms, refocus on quality and efficiency, and raise capital utilization and labor productivity.

China’s Potential Economic Growths during 2015-2025 under Different Scenarios~

China has entered a crucial period of further growth and restructuring that will last until 2025. Based on a review of the major factors affecting China＇s potential economic growth, this paper has created an integrated economic system model consisting of system dynamics, econometrics, and input-output for the forecast of China＇s economic size and structure by 2025. Analysis shows that prior to 2025, China will be able to maintain a potential annual economic growth rate of 5.7%-7.2%. Faced with an international environment of a possible slowdown of advanced economies and diminishing demographic dividends, China needs to further expedite its urbanization process, enhance R＆D and education spending, increase total factor productivity （TFP）, vigorously develop the tertiary sector, and expand consumption in order to achieve the optimistically estimated growth of 6.6%-7.4% during the period of 2015-2025. Economic growth should be accompanied by the upgrade of industry structure and improvement of investment and consumption structures.

国际货币基金组织预测今年日本经济增长2．3％

国际货币基金组织24日发表报告说，日本2007年的经济增长率预计将达到2．3％，2008年为1．9％，与过去两年的增幅相近。报告指出，尽管日本主要的出口市场之一美国的经济增长减速和油价上涨仍是日本经济面临的主要风险，但日本的国内消费预计将上升。

Effect of Seawater Stress on Physiological and Biochemical Responses of Five Jerusalem Artichoke Ecotypes

Three treatments consisting of 0%,15%,and 30%seawater were investigated to analyse the ecotypic variabilities among five populations of Jerusalem artichoke(Helianthus tuberosus)regarding their responses to seawater stress under a hydroponic culture system.Analyses were done 2,4,and 6 days after treatments.The 15%and 30%seawater treatments reduced the growth rates of roots and shoots of H.tuberosus populations.The activities of superoxide dismutase, peroxidase,and catalase majored in the leaves were stimulated under the seawater stress.The electrolyte leakage and malondialdehyde contents of the leaves were also stimulated owing to seawater stress.The contents of proline and soluble- sugars in the leaves increased significantly with increasing seawater concentrations.The concentrations of Na+,K+,and Cl-in the aerial parts and roots increased with an increase in the seawater concentration throughout the experimental period.There were ecotypic differences among the five populations of H.tuberosus as evidenced by the analyses of the above items in both aerial parts and roots under seawater treatment.The magnitude of the ecotypic variance components indicated that a substantial proportion of the total variation for these physiological and biochemical responses were owing to ecotype,indicating the possibility of improvement through hybridization and selection.

The Contribution of Marketization to China＇s Economic Growth

Market-oriented economic transition since 1978 has led to remarkable economic development in China. In this study, we use the National Economic Research Institute （NERI） Index of Marketization and a panel data model to investigate the quantitative contributions of marketization to China＇s total factor productivity （TFP） and economic growth. Our results indicate that marketization contributed 1.45 percentage points on average to China＇s annual economic growth rate during the period from 1997 to 2007 and accounted for 39.2 percent of the increase in TFP. Marketization significantly improved resource allocation. However, economic transition in China has not yet been completed and sustainability of future growth will depend on further market-oriented reforms.

Examination of Resource Curse Hypothesis: Mineral Resources Exploitation and Economic Growth in Xinjiang Autonomous Region

The mineral resources exploitation stage and the economic growth rate are various in different regions of Xinjiang Autonomous region. Using the method of location quotient, this paper identifies and classifies the intensive regions of three types of mineral resources, known as coal, oil and natural gas, respectively. The intensive regions of economic growth were also identified, according to the rate of per capita GDP growth at prefecture, autonomous prefecture and city. The relationships between different mineral resources and economic growth are different, for example, the relationship between economic growth and coal resource is positive, while the relationship between economic growth and oil resource, or natural gas resource is negative. This study empirically examines the effects of natural resources on economic growth of Xinjiang. The results show that whilst natural resources have a positive impact on growth, and can make a negative impact on growth through the transmission channels, such as investment, manufacture, human capital, and scientific and technologic innovation. Moreover, it studies the transmission channels, that is, the effect of natural resources on the other explanatory variables, and calculates the indirect effect of natural resources on growth for each transmission channel, and comprehensive effects of natural resources on growth. The calculated result of comprehensive effects indicates that the positive direct effects of natural resources on growth are shown to outweigh the negative indirect effect of Xinjiang autonomous region.

China＇s Economic Slowdown under Supply-Side Perspective

This paper creates an analytical framework for ongoing China＇s economic slowdown and reveals the major.factors affecting potential growth rate. First, proceeding from the factors that led to a decline in China ＇s potential growth rate, this paper demonstrates that the slowdown since 2012 is not caused by demand-side shock.s＇ but is a natural result of the demographic transition and the change of economic development stage that stemmed from supply-side factors. It is therefore suggested that the demand- side perspective for cyclical analysis must be abandoned and the supply-side perspective for growth analysis ought to be followed Secondly, this paper argues that it is theoretically unjounded and empirically unconvincing for existing literature based on the growth perspective to simply apply the statistical pattern of ＂regression towards the mean＂ to forecast China ＇s growth outlook and thus arrive at pessimistic conclusions. On this basis, this paper identifies a host of initiatives that can significantly increase potential growth rates and proposes policy recommendations for deriving reform dividends foom supply-side structural reform.

Influence of stocking density on growth, body composition and energy budget of Atlantic salmon Salmo salar L. in recirculating aquaculture systems

Atlantic salmon Salmo salar were reared at four stocking densities--high density D1 （final density -39 kg/m^3）, medium densities DE （-29 kg/m^3） and D3 （~19 kg/m^3）, and low density D4 （-12 kg/m^3）- for 40 days to investigate the effect of stocking density on their growth performance, body composition and energy budgets. Stocking density did not significantly affect specific growth rate in terms of weight （SGRw） but did affect specific growth rate in terms of energy （SGRe）. Stocking density significantly influenced the ration level （RLw and RLe）, feed conversion ratio （FCRw and FCRe） and apparent digestibility rate （ADR）. Ration level and FCRw tended to increase with increasing density. Fish at the highest density D~ and lowest density D4 showed lower FCRe and higher ADR than at medium densities. Stocking density significantly affected protein and energy contents of the body but did not affect its moisture, lipid, or ash contents. The expenditure of energy for metabolism in the low-density and high-density groups was lower than that in the medium-density groups. Stocking density affected energy utilization from the feces but had no effect on excretion rate. The greater energy allocation to growth at high density and low density may be attributed to reduced metabolic rate and increased apparent digestibility rate. These findings provide information that will assist selection of suitable stocking densities in the Atlantic-salmon-farming industry.

An Improved Solow- Swan Model

In this paper,under the assumption that the labor force function increases strictly and is bounded and the labor force growth rate function decreases monotonically from a positive value to zero,we obtain an improved Solow Swan model. We prove that the per capita capital trends stabilitily to the steady state of the classical Solow Swan model with zero the labor force growth rate. Two comparison theorems,a limited theorem and a stability theorem are given. At the end of this paper,we give an example and discuss the economic meaning of this model and the theorems.

Threshold effects of renewable energy consumption on economic growth under energy transformation

China proposed that non-fossil energy consumption account for 20% in total energy consumption. EU increased the target of renewable energy consumption share from 27% to 35% in 2030.Energy transformation and increasing renewable energy consumption are important energy strategies for all countries at present. Then, is the impact of renewable energy consumption on economic growth positive or negative? Are there any differences in the direction or magnitude of the impact among countries or regions, and what are the determinants behind them? We apply panel threshold effect model to test threshold effects of renewable energy consumption on economic growth of EU. Empirical result shows: first, the impact of renewable energy consumption on economic growth is negative. Second, renewable energy consumption has significant threshold effects on economic growth. Third, now, energy consumption intensity and GDP per capita of most EU members are in the appropriate threshold regimes. In contrast, more and more EU members are in the high-subsidy group. Fourth, the average annual growth rates of renewable energy consumption showed no significant difference between high-subsidy and lowsubsidy countries from 1990 to 2014. Therefore, subsidy with high economic cost is not the onlyeffective means to increase renewable energy consumption.

Elasticity Ratio of Resource Consumption and the Resource Consumption

Today the resources are becoming scarcer, which should not be regarded as unexhausted any more. Correspondingly, the production would be constrained by the scarcity of resources clearly. Then the economic researchers would pay much more attention to reducing the consumption of natural resources in the future. Therefore this paper brings foreword the conception of elasticity ratio of resource consumption based on the concept of elasticity and analyzes the relationship between the parameters. For the certain relationships between the elasticity ratio of resource consumption and resource consumption, this paper will try to reveal, to keep economy growing while resource consumption reducing, what conditions should be met as to the relationships among resource productivity, its growth rate, energy saving efficiency, economic growth rate and elasticity ratio of resource consumption. This paper proves the relationship between the China＇s energy consumption and economy growth using statistic data from 1978 to 2003.

Culture techniques and growth characteristics of Dinophysis acuminata and its prey

The dinoflagellate Dinophysis acurninata Claparede ＆ Lachrnann is a toxic alga that causes diarrhetic shellfish poisoning. No Dinophysis species were maintained in culture for a long period of time until 2006 when Park successfully established D. acuminata in culture using a three-step feeding protocol in which the cryptophyte, Geminigera cryophila, is fed to Myrionecta rubra （=Mesodinium rubrum）, a ciliate that is in turn fed to D. acuminata. In this paper, we present the details of culturing D. acuminata from the Northeastern United States. The protocols described herein can be adopted for laboratory studies of this species. The effects of temperature on the growth and ingestion rates of D. acuminata were also examined. The results show that D. acuminata growth rate was 0.23/d at 10℃ and 0.11/d at 4℃when fed M. rubra prey. The maximum prey ingestion rate was 2.80 Dinophysis cell/d at 10℃, although the rate decreased slightly at 4℃. In overall, temperature showed a greater influence on growth rate of D. acuminata than on the ingestion rate under the study conditions, and the quantity of available food was also an important regulator to D. acurninata growth.

The Real Source of China's Economic Growth

In this paper,the authors have made the following findings after the fitting of China's economic growth rate series using an improved STR model:since 1949,great changes have taken place in China's economic growth pattern but factor input remains to be the major source of China's economic growth,as reflected by the extensive pattern of economic growth;with the exception of capital,the marginal output of all other production factors has been on the increase,which suggests that the efficiency of China's factor allocation has been continuously improved;the marginal output of capital has been on the decline,which explains that the dependency on investment for economic growth has led to excessive investment;reform and opening up and reform of marketization have substantially increased the sustainability of China's economic growth.In addition,the authors have investigated the internal momentum of China's growth transformation and developed relevant policy recommendations.

Collective Bargaining During the Crisis： The Portuguese Case

Following a period of significant development at the end of the 1990s, with economic growth rates greater than those of the European Union, the Portuguese economy stagnated in 2002 and even declined in 2003. The current context of international crisis has just interrupted the fragile growth trend initiated in 2004： In fact, real GDP, which increased by 1.9 percent in 2007, had a growth rate of zero in 2008 and declined by 2.9 percent in 2009. The crisis has abruptly increased the closure of companies and unemployment jumped from 7.3% in the second haft of 2008 to 10.1% in the forth quarter of 2009. Notwithstanding, social dialog was resilient to this situation of economic crisis, as shown by the number of collective agreements negotiated by the social partners, the number of workers covered by collective agreements and the observed increase in real wages. Additionally, social partners have agreed on a reform of the Labour Code. Are this data enough evidence of social concentration on crisis management？ This paper will analyze this issue, giving particular attention to collective bargaining in Portugal and the crisis impact on the industrial relations system and their actors

Don＇t Overlook GDP and Investment： An Analysis of China＇s Current Economic Trend

In this paper, we first examine various causes of China＇s unexpected low economic growth rate since the beginning of 2012. Particularly, we propose the possibility of one tendency masking the other tendency. That is, there is a tendency of neglecting and downplaying GDP while making fewer efforts to develop economy in some regions that oppose GDP worship and irrational pursuit of and competition for GDP,, which deserves our full attention. We further propose in this paper that the decline of China＇s potential economic growth rate should keep a gradual process and the government should favor consumption while not overlooking investment, given that a certain amount of moderate investment will remain the key impetus to China＇s economic growth over a certain period in the future.

Capital Account Openness,Exchange Rate Volatility and Economic Growth:International Experiences and Implications

Based on the Barro classical growth model, this paper introduces capital account openness and exchange rate volatility to conduct an empirical analysis using the panel data of 182 countries(regions) during 1970-2013 to examine the combined effects of capital account openness and exchange rate risks on economic growth. Our findings are as follows:(1) Without considering exchange rate volatility, capital account openness is subject to a threshold effect, i.e. capital account openness significantly promotes the economic growth of middle-and high-income countries but exerts the opposite effect on low-income countries; and(2) after exchange rate volatility is taken into account, the growth effect of capital account openness is reduced and the greater the exchange rate volatility is, the smaller the marginal effect of capital account openness will be; sample-specific results also proved the existence of the threshold effect. This paper offers the following implications:(1) The effect of capital account openness can be better examined based on risk factors;(2) moderately controlling exchange rate volatility is conducive to acquiring greater benefits from capital account openness; and(3) the threshold effect of capital account openness cannot be overlooked.

Effects of Stocking Density on Water Quality,Growth and Economic Benefits of Chinese Softshelled Turtle Pelodiscus sinensis in Ponds

The Chinese soft-shelled turtle Pelodiscus sinensis is a high-valued freshwater species cultured in China.This study investigated the effects of stocking density on water quality,growth performance and economic return of Pelodiscus sinensis cultured in ponds.P.sinensis were stocked at densities of 1 ind./m^2(LD:low stocking density) and 2 ind./m^2(HD:high stocking density) in 3 000-m^2 ponds,with three replicate ponds for each density.P.sinensis juveniles were fed with a commercial dry pellet feed of 46% crude protein and minced fillet of silver carp ans cultured for 122 days.The results showed that the levels of total nitrogen(TN),total phosphorous(TP),Chlorophyll-a(Chl.a) and turbidity in LD treatment were significantly lower than those in HD treatment(P<0.05).The mean TN and TP concentration in LD treatment was 29.3% and 35.7% lower compared to the HD treatment at the end of the experiment,respectively.Mean survival rates,final weight,average growth rates and PER were significantly higher in LD treatment compared with the HD treatment(P<0.05),respectively.Production was significantly affected by stocking density,which was higher in HD treatment,but the net income was higher in LD treatment.The results suggest that turtles with mean weight 55.6 g rearing at a low stocking density(1 ind./m^2) in ponds had a positive effect on overall economic return and was effective at improving turtle growth performance and water quality.

Sustainable development and upgrading mode of coal industry in China

It is an emerging realistic problem on how to promote a high level of technology in the coal industry, find new upgrading powers and create new competitive advantages, which are also the core problems to efficient transformation pattern of economic growth for coal industry in the ''twelfth five-year'' period, involving the key to China's energy supply and energy security. Through field surveys and inductive analyses, analyzing of the content of upgrading the coal industry as an entry point, this paper analyzes the sustainable development mechanisms for the coal industry from the aspects of work force, power, methods, goals, and so on; and puts forward corresponding developmental modes according to the mechanisms which can improve resource recovery and mineral resources utilization rates by putting them into practice.