2006年度佳木斯火炬计划统计分析

为推动高新技术产业的发展,及时准确地掌握高新技术产业发展状况,根据部署对火炬计划统计的情况,作以简要的分析。

Application of neural network merging model in dam deformation analysis

In order to improve the prediction accuracy and test the generalization ability of the dam deformation analysis model, the back-propagation（BP） neural network model for dam deformation analysis is studied, and the merging model is built based on the neural network BP algorithm and the traditional statistical model. The three models mentioned above are calculated and analyzed according to the long-term deformation observation data in Chencun Dam. The analytical results show that the average prediction accuracies of the statistical model and the BP neural network model are ~ 0.477 and ＋- 0.390 mm, respectively, while the prediction accuracy of the merging model is ~0. 318 mm, which is improved by 33% and 18% compared to the other two models, respectively. And the merging model has a better generalization ability and broad applicability.

Regional Difference in Social Capital and Its Impact on Regional Economic Growth in China

Social capital has played an increasingly important role in regional development.China is a country with high stocks of social capital.Using several different indicators of social capital,this study tries to research the regional disparities in social capital and the influence of social capital on economic growth of China in 1978-2004.Measuring social capital with indicators of associations,charities and blood donation rates,this study finds significant regional disparities in social capital at provincial level in China.Those indicators for social capital are highly correlated with regional economic performance.Statistical analysis shows that social capital has a significant and positive effect on a long-term provincial economic growth.This relationship exists after controlling policy,macro location factors,and per capita GDP in the initial year.The empirical findings indicate that institutions,culture and social relations are critical for regional development in China.Therefore,the creation and support of social capital should be paid more attention to when making regional policy.

R/S AND WAVELET ANALYSIS ON EVOLUTIONARYPROCESS OF REGIONAL ECONOMIC DISPARITY IN CHINA DURING PAST 50 YEARS

This paper shows the dynamic process of regional disparity of economic development in China in the past 50 years from a new insight by using the rescaled range statistic (R/S) analysis and wavelet analysis of the Theil index sequence with different time scales. The main conclusions are: 1) The regional disparity of economic development in China, including the inter-provincial disparity, inter-regional disparity and intra-regional disparity, has existed for many years. Theil index by the comparative price has revealed the true trend for comparative disparity of regional economic development from 1952 to 2000. 2) Decomposition of Theil index indicates that the dynamic trend of comparative inter-provincial disparity in the coastal region is in line with dynamic trend of inter-provincial disparity in the whole China. 3) The R/S analysis results tell us that during 1966-1978, the Hurst exponent H=0.504 approximate to 0.5, which indicates that in that period the evolution of comparative inter-provincial disparity of economic development showed a random characteristic, and in the other periods, i.e. 1952-1965, 1979-1990 and 1991-2000, the Hurst exponent H>0.5, which indicates that in those periods the evolution of the comparative inter-provincial disparity of economic development in China had a long-enduring characteristic. 4) By using wavelet analysis at different time scale, we arrived at a conclusion that the evolutionary process of the disparity of economic development of China is not a simple inverted U shape but a compound of several U shapes. The result tells us that the evolutionary plot of inter-provincial disparity in China follows the inverted U on the whole at the higher scale, 24 ( 16 years). That is to say, the disparity tends to rise in the first stage of economic development, and fall slowly over the peak in the second stage of economic development. However, if we shorten the time scale to 23 ( 8 years), then a link of several U shapes will appear.

A new nonlinear empirical strength criterion for rocks under conventional triaxial compression

The failure criterion of rocks is a critical factor involved in reliability design and stability analysis of geotechnical engineering.In order to accurately evaluate the triaxial compressive strength of rocks under different confining pressures,a nonlinear empirical strength criterion based on Mohr-Coulomb criterion was proposed in this paper.Through the analysis of triaxial test strength of 11 types of rock materials,the feasibility and validity of proposed criterion was discussed.For a further verification,six typical strength criteria were selected,and the prediction results of each criterion and test results were statistically analyzed.The comparative comparison results show that the prediction results obtained by applying this new criterion to 97 conventional triaxial compression tests of 11 different rock materials are highly consistent with the experimental data.Statistical analysis was executed to assess the application of the new criterion and other classical criteria in predicting the failure behavior of rock.This proposed empirical criterion provides a new reference and method for the determination of triaxial compressive strength of rock materials.

Identification of rice seed varieties using neural network

A digital image analysis algorithm based color and morphological features was developed to identify the six varieties （ey7954, syz3, xsl 1, xy5968, xy9308, z903） rice seeds which are widely planted in Zhejiang Province. Seven color and fourteen morphological features were used for discriminant analysis, Two hundred and forty kernels used as the training data set and sixty kernels as the test data set in the neural network used to identify rice seed varieties. When the model was tested on the test data set, the identification accuracies were 90.00%, 88.00%, 95.00%, 82.00%, 74.00%, 80.00% for ey7954, syz3, xsl1, xy5968, xy9308, z903 respectively.

Integration Level for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations （ASEAN） Economic Community

The time has come for the constitution of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations （ASEAN） economic community and many facts have been analyzed regarding this topic. This paper presents the results of the statistical analysis applied to several economic parameters which firstly show how their integration pattern adjusts with a considerable good fitting to the optimum currency area model and to its extended version by Behrens; and secondly how the 10 members of this group are moving at relatively same speed in spite of their differences, that are also inferred for ranging.

Capital loss in China's agriculture

China’s agriculture has contributed a lot to industrialization but it has suffered a long run and severe capital loss. This paper provides an estimation model of capital loss in agriculture and gives some explanation in marginal approach. With an eye to a balanced and sustainable economy development, it is high time for government to do something for it.

Determinants of Female Employment Rate in the European Union

The aim of this paper is to provide a clear insight about the determinants of female employment rate in the European Union where we have used panel data analyses of 27 countries members of the European Union from 1995 till 2009. Applying dynamic modeling, i.e, generalized method of moments （GMM） econometrics findings have driven us to system estimated model where the following institutional variables have been tested： maternity leave, child care facilities, college education, fertility rate, GDP growth, female unemployment rate and part-time employment. We expect these variables to have a positive impact on the female employment rate except for the female unemployment rate and maternity leave

Application of artificial neural networks and multivariate statistics to estimate UCS using textural characteristics

Before any rock engineering project,mechanical parameters of rocks such as uniaxial compressive strength and young modulus of intact rock get measured using laboratory or in-situ tests,but in some situations preparing the required specimens is impossible.By this time,several models have been established to evaluate UCS and E from rock substantial properties.Artificial neural networks are powerful tools which are employed to establish predictive models and results have shown the priority of this technique compared to classic statistical techniques.In this paper,ANN and multivariate statistical models considering rock textural characteristics have been established to estimate UCS of rock and to validate the responses of the established models,they were compared with laboratory results.For this purpose a data set for 44 samples of sandstone was prepared and for each sample some textural characteristics such as void,mineral content and grain size as well as UCS were determined.To select the best predictors as inputs of the UCS models,this data set was subjected to statistical analyses comprising basic descriptive statistics,bivariate correlation,curve fitting and principal component analyses.Results of such analyses have shown that void,ferroan calcitic cement,argillaceous cement and mica percentage have the most effect on USC.Two predictive models for UCS were developed using these variables by ANN and linear multivariate regression.Results have shown that by using simple textural characteristics such as mineral content,cement type and void,strength of studied sandstone can be estimated with acceptable accuracy.ANN and multivariate statistical UCS models,revealed responses with 0.87 and 0.76 regressions,respectively which proves higher potential of ANN model for predicting UCS compared to classic statistical models.

On the True Face of the Economic Statistics

In 2012, China National Ministry of Education issued a new undergraduate course catalog, economic statistics to be classified as a second level discipline of applied economics. However, what specific content should be included in the second level discipline has become a very important issue. What should be taught to students or how can they adapt to the needs of the social market aroused a wide attention. For this case, the National Ministry of Education has given a clearly provision for economic statistics＇ core courses, but whether these main courses can reflect the actual needs and characteristics of economic statistics or not still needs some considerations and discussions. This article started from the angle of the studies on China and the U.S. Journals concerning economic statistics. Using text mining by R, a recent mainstream statistical analysis software, gives a comparative analysis on the contents of economic statistics for recent decades. We created wordcloud about the contents of core statistical journals by R which can help us visually examine the course of economic statistics discipline development for the comparative study. Besides, we drew a conclusion that there were significant differences between China and America＇s economic statistics, the main difference is the United States pay more attention to the exploration of new methods and be able to adapt to market demand, the development of China＇s economic statistics are still more traditional, it need a better understanding of the multi-disciplinary knowledge of education, such as Bayesian and dynamics. Another is that the curriculum of China＇s economic statistics are corrected for China＇s actual situation, a new training program pay more attention to students＇ practical ability and social practice. There are a lot of practical problems remain untouched or unsolved which need efforts of decades probably.

The Diversification Motivation of Downward Performance Listed Companies in China： A Descriptive Statistics Analysis

This paper intends to examine the motivation of diversification. We choose the Shanghai listed companies that adopted a diversification strategy in 2011 but realized a declined performance in 2012 as the study samples, and come to the following conclusions： （1） The macro environment will affect the implementation of the diversification strategy for some industries, such as extractive industry, wood furniture industry, rubber industry, and the building industry; （2） As to the sample of downward performance diversified companies, the shareholders＇ benefits transfer motivation is an important consideration. Further analysis shows that there are some differences in the degree of diversification, benefits transfer motivation, and the degree of income impairment when the sample is classified by corporate nature, growth stage, and firm size. The differences are more obvious in different corporate natures; and （3） A clear correlation between the management ability and the degree of income impairment is not found. But there are some correlations between ownership concentration and the degree of income impairment.

Impacts of Total Energy Consumption Control and Energy Quota Allocation on China′s Regional Economy Based on A 30-region Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

This paper examined the impacts of the total energy consumption control policy and energy quota allocation plans on China′s regional economy. This research analyzed the influences of different energy quota allocation plans with various weights of equity and efficiency, using a dynamic computable general equilibrium(CGE) model for 30 province-level administrative regions. The results show that the efficiency-first allocation plan costs the least but widens regional income gap, whereas the outcomes of equity-first allocation plan and intensity target-based allocation plan are similar and are both opposite to the efficiency-first allocation plan′ outcome. The plan featuring a balance between efficiency and equity is more feasible, which can bring regional economic losses evenly and prevent massive interregional migration of energy-related industries. Furthermore, the effects of possible induced energy technology improvements in different energy quota allocation plans were studied. Induced energy technology improvements can add more feasibility to all allocation plans under the total energy consumption control policy. In the long term, if the policy of the total energy consumption control continues and more market-based tools are implemented to allocate energy quotas, the positive consequences of induced energy technology improvements will become much more obvious.

Research on The Elderly Spiritual Demand in China

Spiritual demand as one of the basic requirements of human, has more important significance for the elderly group. Descriptive statistic analysis shows that in the CLHLS, the elderly spiritual demand and supply is in a state of disequilibrium in our country, supply is far less than demand. The main factors of restricting the old people＇s spiritual need are not being met, including economic factors, intergenerational relations factors, emotional factors and the particularity of spiritual demand, etc. So we need to change our ideas, with the demand of the old structure and strength, by constructing a complete supply system of family, society and government to strengthen for the supply of the spiritual needs of old people, so that the elderly would be happy during his or her later lives.

Human rights and political and economic instability

The purpose of this paper is to use cross country regression analysis on a large set of countries from around the world for the year 2007 to test the hypothesis that greater instability, political or economic leads to reduced levels of human rights. The results of the paper＇s econometric analysis tend to support the hypothesis that increased levels of either political instability or economic instability are detrimental to human rights within countries.

Experimental study of fatigue degree quantification for multi-feature fusion identification

A comprehensive quantification method of fatigue degree is proposed concerning subjective and objective quantifications.Using the fatigue degree test software,fatigue degree is objectively quantified by analyzing the reaction and operation abilities of drivers about traffic signals.By comparison experiment with that EEG signal based,multivariate statistical analysis and fusion identification based on BP neural network(BPNN) results show that the experimental procedure is simple and practical,and the proposed method can reveal the correlation between fatigue feature parameters and fatigue degree in theory,and also can achieve accurate and reliable quantification of fatigue degree,especially under the associated action of multiple fatigue feature parameters.

Illumination of parameter contributions on uneven break： phenomenon in underground stoping mines

One of the most serious conundrum facing the stope production in underground metalliferous mining is uneven break （UB： unplanned dilution and ore-loss）. Although the UB has a huge economic fallout to the entire mining process, it is practically unavoidable due to the complex causing mechanism. In this study, the contribution of ten major UB causative parameters ha,; been scrutinised based on a published UB predicting artificial neuron network （ANN） model to put UB under the engineering management. Two typical ANN sensitivity analysis methods, i.e., connection weight algorithm （CWA） and profile method （PM） have been applied. As a result of CWA and PM applications, adjusted Qrate （AQ） revealed as the most influential parameter to UB with contribution of 22,40% in CWA and 20,48% in PM respectively. The findings of this study can be used as an important reference in stope design, production, and reconciliation stages on underground stoping mine.

Adaptive and local analysis of climate data

This paper focuses on how to extract physically meaningful information from climate data,with emphases placed on adaptive and local analysis. It is argued that many traditional statistical analysis methods with rigorous mathematical footing may not be efficient in extracting essential physical information from climate data;rather,adaptive and local analysis methods that agree well with fundamental physical principles are more capable of capturing key information of climate data. To illustrate the improved power of adaptive and local analysis of climate data,we also introduce briefly the empirical mode decomposition and its later developments.

Hirschsprung's disease:Is there a relationship between mast cells and nerve fibers?

AIM:To define the topography of mast cells and their numbers in cases of Hirschsprung's disease(HD)and non-HD,assess neural hypertrophy using imaging software and to study the relationship between mast cells and nerve fibers.METHODS:HE stained sections of 32 cases of chronic constipation in the age group of 0-14 years were reviewed for ganglion cells.AChE staining was performed on frozen sections of colonic and rectal biopsies.Based on their findings cases were divided into HD and non-HD and mast cells stained by toluidine blue were evaluated.Image analysis by computerized software was applied to S-100 stained sections for assessment of neural hypertrophy.RESULTS:Difference between number of mast cells in HD group(mean=36.44)and in non-HD group(mean =14.79)was statistically significant.Image analysis morphometry on S-100 stained sections served as a useful adjunct.The difference between number,size,and perimeter of the nerve fibers between HD and non-HD group was statistically significant.CONCLUSION:Mast cells are significantly increased in HD and their base line values are much higher in Indian children than that reported in Western literature.Their role in HD needs further research.Morphometry of S-100 stained nerve fibers is a useful adjunct to conventional methods for diagnosis of HD.

Assumptions Regarding the Development of Selected Europe 2020 Objectives in Terms of Public Finances in the Slovak Republic and the Czech Republic

This paper uses regression analysis and econometric modeling foundations to track public expenditures in the Slovak Republic and the Czech Republic （Fejesova, 2011） and their influences on the development of the following two targets of the Europe 2020 Strategy： to increase the employment of the selected population groups to a predetermined percentage level and to reduce the number of people at risk of poverty. In addition to the selection of monitored indicators, we included other indicators from the social sphere, which are funded by mandatory national public expenditure budgets and which are expected to have a positive development in terms of improving the demographic structure of the country--the unemployment rate and the number of live births.