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季节模型参数估计量的经验偏差和均方误差(英文) 被引量:1
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作者 金兰 柳京爱 马福顺 《延边大学学报(自然科学版)》 CAS 2000年第4期235-238,共4页
由MonteCarlo研究得到季节模型参数的通常的最小方差估计量、简单对称估计量和加权对称估计量的经验偏差和均方误差以及最小方差估计量对简单对称估计量和加权对称估计量的比率 .结果表明对非平稳序列最小方差估计量比其它两个估计量更... 由MonteCarlo研究得到季节模型参数的通常的最小方差估计量、简单对称估计量和加权对称估计量的经验偏差和均方误差以及最小方差估计量对简单对称估计量和加权对称估计量的比率 .结果表明对非平稳序列最小方差估计量比其它两个估计量更有效且较小季节值的有效性也较小 ,但当平稳序列参数的绝对值接近 1时 ,加权对称估计量和简单对称估计量比最小方差估计量更有效且较大季节值的有效性也较大 . 展开更多
关键词 均方误差 有效性 经验偏差 季节模型参数 最小方差估计量 简单对称估计量 加权对称估计量
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案件事实认定中法官的经验偏差防范研究 被引量:4
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作者 郑凯心 《河北法学》 CSSCI 北大核心 2021年第11期182-200,共19页
在司法审判中,案件事实的认定由法官运用经验常识进行证据推理得出。经验常识是法官案件事实认定的基础。但因其自带的盖然性特点,经验常识同时又是十分危险的。结合卡尼曼的双加工系统理论,法官在认定案件事实时会受到"经验—直觉... 在司法审判中,案件事实的认定由法官运用经验常识进行证据推理得出。经验常识是法官案件事实认定的基础。但因其自带的盖然性特点,经验常识同时又是十分危险的。结合卡尼曼的双加工系统理论,法官在认定案件事实时会受到"经验—直觉"系统和"理性—分析"系统的双重影响,这导致法官可能会从证据中提炼出错误的案件信息,排除相关证据或采纳不相关的证据。同时,经验常识在证据的演绎推理和归纳推理中都可能被错误运用,直觉性经验甚至还会对案件事实认定造成隐性偏差。法官的经验偏差可能成为错案的导火索。建议通过类案检索、专业法官会议或审判委员会、人民陪审员参审等程序,不断扩大法官自身经验范围,必要时运用间接相关证据证明经验或者运用图示法明示经验的推理过程,还可以利用当事人或控辩双方的质证纠正法官的经验偏差,从而保障案件事实认定的准确性。 展开更多
关键词 案件事实认定 法官经验 经验偏差 双加工系统 直觉
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Large Deviation Theorem for Empirical Measures of Degenerate Diffusion Processes
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作者 刘秀芹 席福宝 《Journal of Beijing Institute of Technology》 EI CAS 2001年第3期233-239,共7页
A class of multi dimensional degenerate diffusion processes X ε(t) in R r(r≥2) are considered and the asymptotic properties of empirical measures are investigated; here X ε(t) saitisfies the stochastic differen... A class of multi dimensional degenerate diffusion processes X ε(t) in R r(r≥2) are considered and the asymptotic properties of empirical measures are investigated; here X ε(t) saitisfies the stochastic differential equation dX ε(t)=σ(X ε(t)) d W(t)+B(X ε(t)) d t+ εσ~(X ε(t)) d W(t),ε>0. X ε(t) are small random perturbations of the degenerate diffusion process X(t), which satisfies the stochastic differential equation dX(t)=σ(X(t)) d W(t)+B(X(t)) d t. A large deviation theorem for projection measures ν on R r-n (n<r) of empirical measures μ are proved 展开更多
关键词 empirical measures large deviation diffusion process
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新会计准则下保险公司利源分析模型及应用 被引量:6
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作者 杜辉 杨玉波 +1 位作者 单小丹 陈戈 《保险研究》 CSSCI 北大核心 2013年第3期39-46,共8页
法定会计准则下利源分析报告在宏观层面进行监管决策和微观层面进行业务管理及绩效评估等方面发挥了重要作用。然而,随着新会计准则正式实施和执行,法定会计准则下利源分析报告的局限性日趋凸显出来,而目前国内尚没有相关文献对新会计... 法定会计准则下利源分析报告在宏观层面进行监管决策和微观层面进行业务管理及绩效评估等方面发挥了重要作用。然而,随着新会计准则正式实施和执行,法定会计准则下利源分析报告的局限性日趋凸显出来,而目前国内尚没有相关文献对新会计准则下利源分析的理论和实务问题进行论述。鉴于此,基于新会计准则下的利润,对新会计准则下利源分析的基本框架进行研究,并在此基础上进行理论推导,建立利源分析模型,最后以典型的两全分红保险为例进行实务分析。结果表明,当实际经营情况与预期一致时,利润由剩余边际和风险边际产生;当实际经营情况与预期不一致时,利润由剩余边际、风险边际和经验偏差组成。 展开更多
关键词 新会计准则 利源分析 边际 经验偏差
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LARGE DEVIATIONS FOR STATIONARY Φ-MIXING SEQUENCES IN τ-TOPOLOGY
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作者 Hu YIJUN Department of Mathematics, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China. 《Chinese Annals of Mathematics,Series B》 SCIE CSCD 1996年第2期149-158,共10页
The results of Bryc on large deviations for empirical measures of stationary Φ-mixing sequences are extended. Bryc states his results in the usual weak topology on the space ofprobability measures. In this paper, und... The results of Bryc on large deviations for empirical measures of stationary Φ-mixing sequences are extended. Bryc states his results in the usual weak topology on the space ofprobability measures. In this paper, under somewhat weaker assumptions than those of Bryc,the author extends Bryc's results by taking the finer topology which is generated by the integralsover bounded measurable functions. 展开更多
关键词 Large deviation Empirical measure Stationary sequence Φ-MIXING τ-topology
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MARSHALLIAN DEVIATION:NEW OBSERVABLE CRITERION TO MEASURE TRANSACTION PATHS IN DOUBLE AUCTION MARKETS
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作者 ZHANWenjie WANGShouyang 《Journal of Systems Science & Complexity》 SCIE EI CSCD 2002年第3期261-277,共17页
In measuring the trade process in a double auction (DA) market, there is not any observable criterion that is able to describe the matching pairs and their transaction order dynamically. In this paper, we propose a ne... In measuring the trade process in a double auction (DA) market, there is not any observable criterion that is able to describe the matching pairs and their transaction order dynamically. In this paper, we propose a new observable criterion called Marshallian deviation. It can be used to measure the distance of a transaction path deviating from the Marshallian path mathematically, and to answer the question why buyers with high values will trade with sellers with low costs in advance in some types of DA but not in others. Furthermore, three factors influencing the Marshallian deviations both in the CDA and in the PDA are also studied. They are respectively the strategic algorithm, the transaction duration and the number of traders. A few interesting findings are presented. 展开更多
关键词 Double auction Marshallian deviation transaction path experimental economics.
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Superiority of empirical Bayes estimator of the mean vector in multivariate normal distribution
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作者 YUAN Min WAN ChongLi WEI LaiSheng 《Science China Mathematics》 SCIE CSCD 2016年第6期1175-1186,共12页
In this paper, the Bayes estimator and the parametric empirical Bayes estimator(PEBE) of mean vector in multivariate normal distribution are obtained. The superiority of the PEBE over the minimum variance unbiased est... In this paper, the Bayes estimator and the parametric empirical Bayes estimator(PEBE) of mean vector in multivariate normal distribution are obtained. The superiority of the PEBE over the minimum variance unbiased estimator(MVUE) and a revised James-Stein estimators(RJSE) are investigated respectively under mean square error(MSE) criterion. Extensive simulations are conducted to show that performance of the PEBE is optimal among these three estimators under the MSE criterion. 展开更多
关键词 multivariate normal distribution mean vector MVUE PEBE RJSE mean square error
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