基于结构方程模型分析科研主体素养对科研创新绩效的影响机制

【目的】研究科研主体素养对科研创新绩效的影响路径机制。【方法】以新疆农业科学院的178名科研人员作为样本,通过使用结构方程模型对每一个样本中科研素养对创新投入和创新产出的影响路径和影响机理进行研究,并验证。【结果】科研修养、个人能力、思维风格和科研基础都显著的影响科研创新投入和科研创新产出,而且科研创新投入也显著的影响科研创新产出问题。科研人员的科研素养越高,越能促进创新投入和创新产出的增加。针对创新产出分为理论产出和成果产品类的产出两个部分,科研素养的影响方式并不相同。科研素养对理论产出的影响更为突出,科研素养可以直接影响一个人的论文发表的数量、质量以及著作的数量质量等理论成果。【结论】提升科研人员科研素养,可以对其科研创新的绩效产生明显的影响,有利于创新的驱动。

林业固定资产投资及产业结构变动对林业经济增长的影响分析——以浙江省为例

林业固定资产投资及产业结构变动对林业经济增长影响的研究对林业宏观决策有重要指导意义。应用边际资本产出比率、投资率、贡献率等指标及结构效应模型,研究浙江林业固定资产投资及产业结构变动对林业经济增长的影响,发现,林业经济增长主要来自林业产业结构效应。因此,浙江省应加大对林业第三产业的固定资产投资。

中国对外贸易商品结构和产业结构的关系研究

改革开放以来,我国的对外贸易商品结构和产业结构都有了不同程度的优化升级,但二者之间的种种矛盾也逐渐暴露出来。本文拟以我国的对外贸易商品结构和产业结构的关系作为研究对象,采用半对数模型以及结构效应模型对二者的关系进行实证检验,为研究对外贸易商品结构和产业结构的问题提供一个新的视角。

江苏省城镇居民家庭金融资产结构影响因素的实证分析

本文通过问卷调查,对江苏省城镇居民的家庭金融资产选择现状进行了分析,并采用tobit模型对城镇居民家庭金融资产结构的影响因素进行了实证研究。研究结果表明:江苏省城镇居民家庭金融资产内部存在严重的失衡现象,储蓄占绝对比重;居民家庭金融资产结构受家庭收入、受教育程度、风险偏好、金融发展作用和居民信任度的正向影响,房产对家庭金融投资产生"挤出"效应;居民家庭投资没有呈现出生命周期效应。

动态视角下中国货币政策的结构效应分析——基于TVP-SV-SFAVAR模型的实证研究

本文基于区域结构效应和产业结构效应的双重视角,利用带有随机波动的时变参数结构因子增强向量自回归(TVP-SV-SFAVAR)模型,对中国货币政策的结构效应进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,数量型货币政策和价格型货币政策均具有较为显著的产业结构效应和区域结构效应,且二者对不同区域内三次产业的调控作用具有一定的差异性。从货币政策调控效果的动态变化趋势来看,总体而言,危机期间货币政策的调控作用有所下降,危机后调控作用逐渐增强。在此基础上,本文简单分析了货币政策区域结构效应和产业结构效应产生的原因并给出了相关的政策建议。

服务的空间扩散:基于上海迪士尼的实证

体验经济是当代企业服务营销的重要组成,由于服务体验的扩散具有明显的空间效应,本研究通过建立服务扩散的空间溢出模型,在其中定义区域间的相对影响力和易感性,从而准确分离了本地区服务体验扩散和其他地区溢出扩散这两种空间影响效果.研究基于上海迪士尼乐园游客的移动数据,实证测量了迪士尼服务群体的空间扩散效应、省份和区域层次服务扩散的影响力、易感性与溢出效应.结果发现,迪士尼乐园服务群体的扩散效果主要受到本地游客的直接影响(占比38.6%)和来自其他地区游客的溢出影响(占比52.4%),受到的时间效应和媒体效应为8.7%和0.3%.此外,该模型还给出了各省游客对迪士尼服务效果传播的不同影响力,以及各省游客对该服务传播的易感性.本研究证实了服务扩散过程中地区空间影响的不对称性,开发的定量模型也为服务业营销人员进行以空间地理为导向的干预措施提供了精准参考.

Hazard degree identification of goafs based on scale effect of structure by RS-TOPSIS method

In order to precisely predict the hazard degree of goaf(HDG), the RS-TOPSIS model was built based on the results of expert investigation. To evaluate the HDG in the underground mine, five structure size factors, i.e. goaf span, exposed area, goaf height, goaf depth, and pillar width, were selected as the evaluation indexes. And based on rough dependability in rough set(RS)theory, the weights of evaluation indexes were identified by calculating rough dependability between evaluation indexes and evaluation results. Fourty goafs in some mines of western China, whose indexes parameters were measured by cavity monitoring system(CMS), were taken as evaluation objects. In addition, the characteristic parameters of five grades' typical goafs were built according to the interval limits value of single index evaluation. Then, using the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS), five-category classification of HDG was realized based on closeness degree, and the HDG was also identified.Results show that the five-category identification of mine goafs could be realized by RS-TOPSIS method, based on the structure-scale-effect. The classification results are consistent with those of numerical simulation based on stress and displacement,while the coincidence rate is up to 92.5%. Furthermore, the results are more conservative to safety evaluation than numerical simulation, thus demonstrating that the proposed method is more easier, reasonable and more definite for HDG identification.

Investigation of acoustic scale effects and boundary effects for the similitude model of underwater complex shell-structure

In this paper, the acoustic scale effects and boundary effects for the similitude model of underwater complex shell-structure are investigated. The similitude conditions and relations between the similitude model and its prototype were studied in the references. This paper investigates the acoustic scale effects for the similitude model, which are influenced by loss factor, shear and rotatory inertia. At the same time, the boundary effects which are influenced by surface sound reflection are investigated in the experiment of similitude model. The results show that the acoustic scale effects may be controlled with model designing, the boundary effects can be controlled with experimental designing between the similitude model and its prototype.

Macroeconomic Impacts of Contemporary Electricity Reform： 19 OECD and Seven Australian States

This paper examines the impacts of market-oriented electricity reform on macroeconomic variables. It develops an ad hoc econometric model for this purpose, using a panel data of 19 developed countries plus seven Australian States for the period of 1970-2008. Significance of the impacts is firstly tested against three distinct institutional features of electricity reform, namely： （1） organizational restructuring （i.e., functional unbundling of traditionally vertically integrated industry）; （2） market restructuring （introduction of mandatory bid-based spot market）; and （3） privatization. The extents of the impacts are, then, quantified in terms of relative contribution of such institutional changes to aggregate output growth in short-run, medium-run and long-run. The results reveal that only functional unbundling has made significant contribution to output growth. The results, further, specify that functional unbundling has made, on average, an additional 0.06% and 2.7% contribution to output growth rate in medium-run and long-run respectively.

Scatter of fatigue data owing to material microscopic effects

A common phenomenon of fatigue test data reported in the open literature such as S-N curves exhibits the scatter of points for a group of same specimens under the same loading condition.The reason is well known that the microstructure is different from specimen to specimen even in the same group.Specifically,a fatigue failure process is a multi-scale problem so that a fatigue failure model should have the ability to take the microscopic effect into account.A physically-based trans-scale crack model is established and the analytical solution is obtained by coupling the micro-and macro-scale.Obtained is the trans-scale stress intensity factor as well as the trans-scale strain energy density(SED)factor.By taking this trans-scale SEDF as a key controlling parameter for the fatigue crack propagation from micro-to macro-scale,a trans-scale fatigue crack growth model is proposed in this work which can reflect the microscopic effect and scale transition in a fatigue process.The fatigue test data of aluminum alloy LY12 plate specimens is chosen to check the model.Two S-N experimental curves for cyclic stress ratio R=0.02 and R=0.6 are selected.The scattering test data points and two S-N curves for both R=0.02 and R=0.6 are exactly re-produced by application of the proposed model.It is demonstrated that the proposed model is able to reflect the multiscaling effect in a fatigue process.The result also shows that the microscopic effect has a pronounced influence on the fatigue life of specimens.