Bus transit travel time reliability evaluation based on automatic vehicle location data

In order to provide important parameters for schedule designing, decision-making bases for transit operation management and references for passengers traveling by bus, bus transit travel time reliability is analyzed and evaluated based on automatic vehicle location （AVL） data. Based on the statistical analysis of the bus transit travel time, six indices including the coefficient of variance, the width of travel time distribution, the mean commercial speed, the congestion frequency, the planning time index and the buffer time index are proposed. Moreover, a framework for evaluating bus transit travel time reliability is constructed. Finally, a case study on a certain bus route in Suzhou is conducted. Results show that the proposed evaluation index system is simple and intuitive, and it can effectively reflect the efficiency and stability of bus operations. And a distinguishing feature of bus transit travel time reliability is the temporal pattern. It varies across different time periods.

公路钢桥疲劳设计荷载标准研究

为推导我国公路钢桥疲劳设计荷载标准,从实际出发,根据我国现有高速公路交通荷载现状,实地调查我国高速公路正在运营的各种车辆荷载。根据实测、统计和分析结果,采用数理统计和可靠度理论分析的方法,通过建立典型公路钢桥车辆荷载谱和连接构件应力谱模型,进行疲劳荷载谱研究。研究结果表明:我国国土面积较大,各地车辆荷载形式众多,不能简单套用欧美标准,应根据各地车辆荷载的实际情况,并结合日后进行疲劳设计使用的方便性,从疲劳致伤理论的角度,根据实际计算、分析的结果,制定出标准疲劳车辆。这一结论为疲劳设计提供了标准车辆荷载谱,填补了我国公路钢桥疲劳设计中的空白,也为公路钢桥的运营管理和养护维修提供有力的参考依据,对提高桥梁的耐久性具有现实的指导意义。

Cranial morphometric study of four giant flying squirrels(Petaurista)(Rodentia:Sciuridae) from China

The present study revisited the controversial taxonomic status ofPetaurista yunanensis, P. philippensis, P. hainana, and P. petaurista by using a considerably extended set of morphometrical characters （26 cranial variables from 60 adult specimen skulls）. The results revealed no sexual dimorphism in any of the four species but confirmed significant craniometric differences among the four species in both the principal components analysis （PCA） and discriminant function analysis （DFA）, with the greatest distinction observed between P. petaurista and other Petaurista species. Both univariate and multivariate analysis indicated that the morphological differences between P. yunanensis and P. philippensis were less than that between P. philippensis and P. hainana. The morphometric results were concordant in geographic patterns with mtDNA data from previous studies and indicated that P. petaurista, P. hainana, P. philippensis, and P. yunanensis could be recognized as valid species.

ROTATING FIBER OPTIC GYRO STRAP-DOWN INERTIAL NAVIGATION SYSTEM WITH THREE ROTATING AXES

The principle of the inertial navigation system（INS） with rotating inertial measurement unit （IMU） is analyzed. A new IMU is established to rotate round each axis in three directions. Then, the related error models for the designed system during rotating are deduced and the improved system is built. Finally, the performance simulation of the proposed system is provided. The simulation result indicates that the designed system can improve the accuracy of the roll and the pitch as well as heading by rotating three axes, thus guaranting the heading accuracy. Moreover, based on the principle of rotation at six different positions, such structure can carry out real-time calibration, and improve the system performance.

Application of Statistic Analysis on the Selection of Quantitative Characteristics Listed in the DUS Test Guideline of Tagetes L.

[Objective] This paper researched how to use specific approach to select quantitative characteristics which would be listed in the DUS Test Guideline of Tagetes L. [Method] With the aid of statistic analysis, the uniformity, stability and correlation of 14 pre-selected characteristics were analyzed. [Result] The expression of peduncle length of terminal flower had low uniformity within a variety; the expres- sion of main stem thickness was not stable in continuous growing cycles; there were four pairs of quantitative characteristics which are （very） significantly correlated, namely, leaf length and leaf width, diameter of flower head and length of outer ligu- late floret, number of ligulate floret whorls and number of ligulate floret, leaf width and width of terminal leaflet of pinnate leaves. Based on the requirements of char- acteristic selection and the results of statistic analysis, five characteristics including peduncle length of terminal flower, thickness of the main stem, leaf width, length of outer ligulate floret and number of ligulate floret were deleted. [Conclusion] For the first time, this paper introduced the application of statistic analysis on the selection of quantitative characteristics.

Statistical and causes analysis of storm surges along Tianjin coast during the past 20 years

Based on tidal data statistical analysis for 20 years of Tanggu Marine Environmental Monitoring Station from 1991 to 2010, we concluded that an average of nearly 10 days of 100 cm above water increase took place at Tianjin coast every year. The maximum high tide and average tide of Tianjin coast occurred in summer and autumn, and the maximum water increase also occurred in summer and autumn. Days with water increase more than 100 cm mostly occurred in spring, autumn and winter. Then we summarized the causes of coastal storm surge disaster in Tianjin based on astronomical tide factors, meteorological factors, sea level rise, land subsidence, and geographic factors, et al. Finally, we proposed storm surge disaster prevention measures.

Effect of Climate Change on Cotton Lugus lucorum Occurrence Degree

[Objective] The aim was to analyze effect of climate change on occurrence degree of cotton Lugus lucorum in coastal areas of Jiangsu Province, in order to provide authentic references for better prevention. [Method] Statistical analysis was conducted on Information about occurrence degree of cotton Lugus lucorum in Binhai County in Jiangsu Province from 1985 to 2007 under guidance of Integral regression method. [Result] Because of climate change, cotton Lugus lucorum occurrence de- grees differed in different generations and growth stages in Binhai County. Tempera- ture and humidity constituted the main climate factors. In general, climate change hindered occurrence degree from increasing. We could make use of the period when occurrence degree of cotton Lugus lucorum is prone to significant increase and choose some periods, such as early April, late June and middle August, to improve prevention effect. In addition, attention should be paid to comprehensive measures, such as adjustment of industrial structure, which will reduce pesticide and minimize cotton Lugus lucorum damage and adverse impact from prevention measures. [Conclusion] The results provided authentic references for cotton Lugus lucorum preven- tion in Jiangsu coastal areas.

Application of neural network merging model in dam deformation analysis

In order to improve the prediction accuracy and test the generalization ability of the dam deformation analysis model, the back-propagation（BP） neural network model for dam deformation analysis is studied, and the merging model is built based on the neural network BP algorithm and the traditional statistical model. The three models mentioned above are calculated and analyzed according to the long-term deformation observation data in Chencun Dam. The analytical results show that the average prediction accuracies of the statistical model and the BP neural network model are ~ 0.477 and ＋- 0.390 mm, respectively, while the prediction accuracy of the merging model is ~0. 318 mm, which is improved by 33% and 18% compared to the other two models, respectively. And the merging model has a better generalization ability and broad applicability.

Research of NS dataflow mechanism and its analyzer implementation

This paper analyzes the main elements in NS network simulator, makes adetailed view of dataflow management in a link, a node, and an agent, respectively, and introducesthe information described by its trace file. Based on the analysis of transportation and treatmentof different packets in NS, a dataflow state machine is proposed with its states exchange triggeringevents and a dataflow analyzer is designed and implemented according to it. As the machine statefunctions, the analyzer can make statistic of total transportation flux of a specified dataflow andoffer a general fluctuation diagram. Finally, a concrete example is used to test its performance.

A New Approach for on-Line Blind Equalization and Channel Identification

A new approach for blind equalization and channel identification is proposed in this paper. The equalization scheme is based on over sampling technique and an independent component analysis network. The equalized sequence and its higher order statistics are used to identify the channel parameters. Compared to traditional equalization methods, the proposed approach is with a simple architecture, and does not need learning sequences. Computer simulations show the validity of the proposed method.

DAMAGE DETECTION FOR COMPOSITE STRUCTURE UNDER TEMPERATURE CHANGES USING LAMB WAVES

A two-step method is proposed for detection and identification of invisible impact damage in composite structure under temperature changes using Lamb waves.First,a statistical outlier analysis is employed to distinguish whether the changes of Lamb wave signals are induced by damage within a monitoring area or are only affected by temperature changes.Damage indices are defined after the Lamb wave signals are processed by Fourier transform,and a Monte Carlo procedure is used to obtain the damage threshold value for the damage indices at the undamaged state.If the damage indices in the operation state exceed the threshold value,the presence of damage is determined.Then,a probabilistic damage imaging algorithm displaying probabilities of the presence of damage within the monitoring area is adopted to fuse information collected from multiple actuator-sensor paths to identify the location of damage.Damage indices under damaged state are used to generate the diagnostic image.Experimental study on a stiffened composite panel with random temperature changes is performed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

Research of CRP-based irregular 2D seismic acquisition

Seismic exploration in the mountainous areas of western Chinese is extremely difficult because of the complexity of the surface and subsurface, which results in shooting difficulties, seismic data with low signal-to-noise ratio, and strong interference. The complexity of the subsurface structure leads to strong scattering of the refl ection points; thus, the curved-line acquisition method has been used. However, the actual subsurface structural characteristics have been rarely considered. We propose a design method for irregular acquisition based on common refl ection points（CRP） to avoid difficult-to-shoot areas, while considering the structural characteristics and CRP positions and optimizing the surfacereceiving line position. We arrange the positions of the receiving points to ensure as little dispersion of subsurface CRP as possible to improve the signal-to-noise ratio of the seismic data. We verify the applicability of the method using actual data from a site in Sichuan Basin. The proposed method apparently solves the problem of seismic data acquisition and facilitates seismic exploration in structurally complex areas.

A Novel Three-parameter Flow Cytometric Analysis for Cell Cycle

To set up a three-parameter method for cell cycle analysis by two-laser flowcy-tometer, which can detect two types of cyclin plus DNA content in one measurement, and thatanalyze unscheduled expression of cyclins. Methods: Three-color fluorescence was used for analysisof two types of cyclins and DNA content simultaneously in individual cells by two-laser flowcytometry. MOLT-4 cells were used to study the expression of major cyclins in mammalian cells. ATriton-X100 permeabilization procedure was optimized for detection of two types of cyclins. Onecyclin was stained directly with a FITC-conjugated monoclonal antibody (mAb), and the other,indirectly with RPE-Cy5-conjugated secondary antibody, while DNA was stained with the fluorochromeDAPI. mAMSA and mimosine treated MOLT-4 cells were used to test this three-parameter method.Results: Permeabilization with 0.5% Triton-XlOO in PBS containing 1% BSA for 5 min on ice providedoptimal conditions for the simultaneous labelling of two cyclins plus DNA in single cells. It wasfound that the emission spectrum of the three dyes (DAPI, FITC and RPE-Cy5) could be measured withno compensation. Based on cyclinA/cyclinE/DNA flow cytometric analysis, asynchronously growingMOLT-4 cells could be divided into 6 compartments (G1o, G1e, G1l, S, G2, and M) simultaneously,allowing for analysis of cell cycle phase specific perturbations without the necessity of cellsynchronization. Unscheduled cyclin B1 expression was observed in G1 cells treated with mimosine andcyclin E in G2 cells treated with mAMSA. We found that unscheduled cyclin expression paralleledexpected cyclin expression. Conclusion: Thus, three-color FCM analysis of cells may not only beapplied to measure unscheduled vs. expected cyclin expression but may also be used to estimate thefraction of cycling cells in up to 6 cell populations.

辽宁大洼地区风能资源研究

通过对大洼地区风向季节性频率的变化和年最多风向、风速等风的气象数据的统计,本文对大洼地区风能资源进行分析。

Performance Monitoring and Diagnosis of Multivariable Model Predictive Control Using Statistical Analysis

A statistic-based benchmark was proposed for performance assessment and monitoring of model predic- tive control; the benchmark was straightforward and achievable by recording a set of output data only when the control performance was good according to the user’s selection. Principal component model was built and an auto- regressive moving average filter was identified to monitor the performance; an improved T2 statistic was selected as the performance monitor index. When performance changes were detected, diagnosis was done by model validation using recursive analysis and generalized likelihood ratio (GLR) method. This distinguished the fact that the per- formance change was due to plant model mismatch or due to disturbance term. Simulation was done about a heavy oil fractionator system and good results were obtained. The diagnosis result was helpful for the operator to improve the system performance.

Statistical Analysis on Field Efficacy Trial of Pesticide Using Visual Basic

[Objective] To introduce a convenient and easy way for the statistical anal- ysis on field efficacy trials of pesticide by using Visual Basic. [Method] The calcula- tion procedure of using Visual Basic to conduct statistical analysis on the field efficacy of pesticides was introduced, and an example was used to illustrate the usage and skill of the program. [Result] The procedure could quickly and accurately con- duct statistical analysis on the field efficacy of pesticide by only inputting initial data of the test, and it could compare the significance of differences between various fac- tors. Its calculated results were consistent with the results of the specialized statisti- cal software DPS. [Conclusion] It is a quick and simple method with high accuracy and reliability, which can greatly improve the efficiency of pesticide formulation opti- mization.

Improved response surface method and its application in stability reliability degree analysis of tunnel surrounding rock

An approach of limit state equation for surrounding rock was put forward based on deformation criterion. A method of symmetrical sampling of basic random variables adopted by classical response surface method was mended, and peak value and deflection degree of basic random variables distribution curve were took into account in the mended sampling method. A calculation way of probability moment, based on mended Rosenbluth method, suitable for non-explicit performance function was put forward. The first, second, third and fourth order moments of functional function value were calculated by mended Rosenbluth method through the first, second, third and fourth order moments of basic random variable. A probability density the function（PDF） of functional function was deduced through its first, second, third and fourth moments, the PDF in the new method took the place of the method of quadratic polynomial to approximate real functional function and reliability probability was calculated through integral by the PDF for random variable of functional function value in the new method. The result shows that the improved response surface method can adapt to various statistic distribution types of basic random variables, its calculation process is legible and need not itemtive circulation. In addition, a stability probability of surrounding rock for a tunnel was calculated by the improved method, whose workload is only 30% of classical method and its accuracy is comparative.

Analysis of infections in the first 3-month after living donor liver transplantation

AIM:To identify factors related to serious postoperative bacterial and fungal infections in the first 3 mo after living donor liver transplantation(LDLT).METHODS:In the present study,the data of 207 patients from 2004 to 2011 were reviewed.The pre-,intra-and post-operative factors were statistically analyzed.All transplantations were approved by the ethics committee of West China Hospital,Sichuan University.Patients with definitely preoperative infections and infections within 48 h after transplantation were excluded from current study.All potential risk factors were analyzed using univariate analyses.Factors significant at a P < 0.10 in the univariate analyses were involved in the multivariate analyses.The diagnostic accuracy of the identified risk factors was evaluated using receiver operating curve.RESULTS:The serious bacterial and fungal infection rates were 14.01% and 4.35% respectively.Enterococcus faecium was the predominant bacterial pathogen,whereas Candida albicans was the most common fungal pathogen.Lung was the most common infection site for both bacterial and fungal infections.Recipient age older than 45 years,preoperative hyponatremia,intensive care unit stay longer than 9 d,postoperative bile leak and severe hyperglycemia were independent risk factors for postoperative bacterial infection.Massive red blood cells transfusion and postoperative bacterial infection may be related to postoperative fungal infection.CONCLUSION:Predictive risk factors for bacterial and fungal infections were indentified in current study.Pre-,intra-and post-operative factors can cause postoperative bacterial and fungal infections after LDLT.

Regional Difference in Social Capital and Its Impact on Regional Economic Growth in China

Social capital has played an increasingly important role in regional development.China is a country with high stocks of social capital.Using several different indicators of social capital,this study tries to research the regional disparities in social capital and the influence of social capital on economic growth of China in 1978-2004.Measuring social capital with indicators of associations,charities and blood donation rates,this study finds significant regional disparities in social capital at provincial level in China.Those indicators for social capital are highly correlated with regional economic performance.Statistical analysis shows that social capital has a significant and positive effect on a long-term provincial economic growth.This relationship exists after controlling policy,macro location factors,and per capita GDP in the initial year.The empirical findings indicate that institutions,culture and social relations are critical for regional development in China.Therefore,the creation and support of social capital should be paid more attention to when making regional policy.

A new nonlinear empirical strength criterion for rocks under conventional triaxial compression

The failure criterion of rocks is a critical factor involved in reliability design and stability analysis of geotechnical engineering.In order to accurately evaluate the triaxial compressive strength of rocks under different confining pressures,a nonlinear empirical strength criterion based on Mohr-Coulomb criterion was proposed in this paper.Through the analysis of triaxial test strength of 11 types of rock materials,the feasibility and validity of proposed criterion was discussed.For a further verification,six typical strength criteria were selected,and the prediction results of each criterion and test results were statistically analyzed.The comparative comparison results show that the prediction results obtained by applying this new criterion to 97 conventional triaxial compression tests of 11 different rock materials are highly consistent with the experimental data.Statistical analysis was executed to assess the application of the new criterion and other classical criteria in predicting the failure behavior of rock.This proposed empirical criterion provides a new reference and method for the determination of triaxial compressive strength of rock materials.