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计算高可靠性系统失效概率的统计估计蒙特卡罗方法 被引量:6
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作者 肖刚 苏光辉 +1 位作者 李天柁 贾斗南 《核科学与工程》 CAS CSCD 北大核心 2000年第1期25-31,共7页
在相似仿真方法的基础上 ,设计了计算系统失效概率的统计估计蒙特卡罗方法 ,包括直接统计估计和加权统计估计蒙特卡罗方法。介绍了统计估计蒙特卡罗可靠性仿真的基本原理 ,给出了统计估计蒙特卡罗计算方法的无偏估计量和具体算法。同时... 在相似仿真方法的基础上 ,设计了计算系统失效概率的统计估计蒙特卡罗方法 ,包括直接统计估计和加权统计估计蒙特卡罗方法。介绍了统计估计蒙特卡罗可靠性仿真的基本原理 ,给出了统计估计蒙特卡罗计算方法的无偏估计量和具体算法。同时采用直接仿真方法、限制抽样蒙特卡罗方法、强迫转换蒙特卡罗方法、直接统计估计和加权统计估计蒙特卡罗方法计算了一高可靠性系统的失效概率 ,结果表明 ,在高可靠性系统不可靠度计算中加权统计估计蒙特卡罗方法计算结果的方差最小 ,效率最高。 展开更多
关键词 统计估计蒙特卡罗方法 高可靠性系统 失效概率
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GEFA海气相互作用估计方法研究进展 被引量:3
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作者 温娜 刘征宇 江志红 《气象科技进展》 2012年第1期19-24,共6页
回顾了近十年海气相互作用统计估计方法研究的最新进展,重点介绍广义平衡反馈分析方法(GEFA)。该方法用于系统分离不同海区对气候异常的独立贡献。它的优越性在简单模式中得到了验证。在实际观测应用中,GEFA结果不仅验证了前人的一些研... 回顾了近十年海气相互作用统计估计方法研究的最新进展,重点介绍广义平衡反馈分析方法(GEFA)。该方法用于系统分离不同海区对气候异常的独立贡献。它的优越性在简单模式中得到了验证。在实际观测应用中,GEFA结果不仅验证了前人的一些研究成果,例如热带太平洋ENSO模对北美降水的影响等,还揭示了一些新的物理现象,像热带印度洋对热带太平洋海温异常强迫的干扰等。这些研究结果表明GEFA已成为海气相互作用研究中一种新的有效统计工具。 展开更多
关键词 统计估计方法 广义平衡反馈分析方法 海气相互作用
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月面着陆器与巡视器同波束差分时延相对定位算法
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作者 樊敏 黄勇 +3 位作者 李海涛 王宏 郝万宏 陈少伍 《航天器工程》 北大核心 2015年第2期14-20,共7页
针对月球着陆巡视探测活动中的月面着陆器与巡视器的相对定位问题,建立了月面双目标相对运动方程和状态方程,给出了同波束差分时延测量量关于双目标相对位置的测量方程,进而实现了基于统计估计方法解算双目标相对位置的算法。结合嫦娥... 针对月球着陆巡视探测活动中的月面着陆器与巡视器的相对定位问题,建立了月面双目标相对运动方程和状态方程,给出了同波束差分时延测量量关于双目标相对位置的测量方程,进而实现了基于统计估计方法解算双目标相对位置的算法。结合嫦娥三号探测器跟踪测量条件,利用该算法开展仿真分析。结果表明:在测量弧段达到5min以上、同波束干涉测量(SBI)时延仅有1ns随机误差的情况下,相对定位精度可达20m;测量数据存在3ns系统误差时,相对定位精度为200m,此时如果增加甚长基线干涉测量(VLBI)时延数据,可将相对定位精度提高到150m。利用嫦娥三号实测数据处理结果验证了此算法的正确性和仿真分析的有效性,可为合理制定月面双目标相对定位策略提供参考。 展开更多
关键词 月面探测 统计估计方法 相对运动方程 同波束干涉测量模型 甚长基线干涉测量
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简捷式与标准式回归系数的数量关系
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作者 唐建荣 《江苏统计》 1997年第2期18-19,共2页
简捷式与标准式回归系数的数量关系□文/唐建荣(一)最小二乘法或称最小平方法,是理论界倍受推崇的统计估计方法。一般认为,由最小二乘法拟合的曲线是最理想的趋势线。该趋势线满足以下二条件:(1)原数列与趋势线的离差平方和最... 简捷式与标准式回归系数的数量关系□文/唐建荣(一)最小二乘法或称最小平方法,是理论界倍受推崇的统计估计方法。一般认为,由最小二乘法拟合的曲线是最理想的趋势线。该趋势线满足以下二条件:(1)原数列与趋势线的离差平方和最小,即:∑(Yt-Yt)2=min... 展开更多
关键词 回归系数 标准式 最小二乘法 参数估计 趋势线 销售收入 数量关系 模型参数 直线趋势模型 统计估计方法
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A flexible lag definition for experimental variogram calculation 被引量:3
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作者 Cuba Miguel 《Mining Science and Technology》 EI CAS 2011年第2期207-211,共5页
Inferring the experimental variogram used in geostatistics commonly relies on the method-of-moments approach.Ideally,the available data-set used for calculating the experimental variogram should be drawn from a regula... Inferring the experimental variogram used in geostatistics commonly relies on the method-of-moments approach.Ideally,the available data-set used for calculating the experimental variogram should be drawn from a regular pattern.However,in practice the available data-set is typically sampled over a sparse pattern at irregularly spaced locations.Hence,some binning of the variogram cloud is required to obtain fair estimates of the experimental variogram.Grouping of the variogram data pairs as a result of conventional binning depends on parameters such as the main anisotropic directions and a regular definition of the lag vectors.These parameters are not based on the configuration of the variogram data pairs in the variogram cloud but on a segment of it that is arbitrarily predefined.Therefore,the conventional experimental variogram estimation approach is biased because of the strict configuration of the bins over the variogram cloud.In this paper,a new method of estimating experimental variograms is proposed.Lag vectors and their tolerances are decided in the proposed method from information in the variogram cloud:they are not influenced by any predefined directions.The proposed methodology is a well-founded,practicable and easy-to-automate approach for experimental variogram calculation using an irregularly sampled data-set.Comparison of results from the new method to those from the traditional approach is very encouraging. 展开更多
关键词 GEOSTATISTICS Variogram cloud Experimental variogram Variogram modeling Self-organizing-map
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Design of motion control of dam safety inspection underwater vehicle 被引量:5
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作者 孙玉山 万磊 +2 位作者 甘永 王建国 姜春萌 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS 2012年第6期1522-1529,共8页
Plenty of dams in China are in danger while there are few effective methods for underwater dam inspections of hidden problems such as conduits,cracks and inanitions.The dam safety inspection remotely operated vehicle(... Plenty of dams in China are in danger while there are few effective methods for underwater dam inspections of hidden problems such as conduits,cracks and inanitions.The dam safety inspection remotely operated vehicle(DSIROV) is designed to solve these problems which can be equipped with many advanced sensors such as acoustical,optical and electrical sensors for underwater dam inspection.A least-square parameter estimation method is utilized to estimate the hydrodynamic coefficients of DSIROV,and a four degree-of-freedom(DOF) simulation system is constructed.The architecture of DSIROV's motion control system is introduced,which includes hardware and software structures.The hardware based on PC104 BUS,uses AMD ELAN520 as the controller's embedded CPU and all control modules work in VxWorks real-time operating system.Information flow of the motion system of DSIROV,automatic control of dam scanning and dead-reckoning algorithm for navigation are also discussed.The reliability of DSIROV's control system can be verified and the control system can fulfill the motion control mission because embankment checking can be demonstrated by the lake trials. 展开更多
关键词 dam safety inspection remotely operated vehicle (DSIROV) control system architecture embedded system automaticcontrol of dam-scanning dead-reckoning
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Modified Method for Estimating Organic Carbon Density in Discontinuous Karst Soil Using Ground-Penetrating Radar and Geostatistics 被引量:4
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作者 LI Lei XIA Yin-hang +6 位作者 LIU Shu-juan ZHANG Wei CHEN Xiang-bi ZHENG Hua QIU Hu-sen HE Xun-yang SU Yi-rong 《Journal of Mountain Science》 SCIE CSCD 2015年第5期1229-1240,共12页
The conventional method which assumes the soil distribution is continuous was unsuitable for estimating soil organic carbon density(SOCD) in Karst areas because of its discontinuous soil distribution. The accurate est... The conventional method which assumes the soil distribution is continuous was unsuitable for estimating soil organic carbon density(SOCD) in Karst areas because of its discontinuous soil distribution. The accurate estimation of SOCD in Karst areas is essential for carbon sequestration assessment in China. In this study, a modified method,which considers the vertical proportion of soil area in the profile when calculating the SOCD, was developed to estimate the SOCD in a typical Karst peak-cluster depression area in southwest China. In the modified method, ground-penetrating radar(GPR) technology was used to detect the distribution and thickness of soil. The accuracy of the method was confirmed through comparison with the data obtained using a validation method, in which the soil thickness was measured by excavation. In comparison with the conventional method and average-soil-depth method,the SOCD estimated using the GPR method showed the minimum relative error with respect to that obtained using the validation method. At a regional scale, the average SOCDs at depths of 0-20 cm and 0-100 cm, which were interpolated by ordinary kriging,were 1.49(ranging from 0.03-5.65) and 2.26(0.09-11.60) kgm-2based on GPR method in our study area(covering 393.6 hm2), respectively. Therefore, the modified method can be applied on the accurate estimation of SOCD in discontinuous soil areas such as Karst regions. 展开更多
关键词 Discontinuous soil Organic carbondensity Soil distribution Estimation method Ground penetrating radar KARST Peak clusterdepression
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The Future University Choices of Secondary Schools Students: Statistical Evaluations in Messina Side
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作者 Angela Alibrandi Massimiliano Giacalone 《Chinese Business Review》 2011年第8期632-639,共8页
In the last decades, especially since the 1990s, there was a gradual rising of educational levels, due to a growing schooling. This paper aims to analyze the propensity toward university enrolment in the Messina area,... In the last decades, especially since the 1990s, there was a gradual rising of educational levels, due to a growing schooling. This paper aims to analyze the propensity toward university enrolment in the Messina area, by means of appropriate statistical methods. In particular, we compared the students of different secondary school institutes in Messina, with reference to the choice of the future university career and other information about the scholastic profit and the scholastic context. Our comparative analysis has been performed through a non-parametric approach, using the Non Parametric Combination (NPC) test based on permutation test. This methodology was chosen for optimal characteristics of which it is characterized. 展开更多
关键词 university registration permutation test comparison among schools
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Effective condition numbers and small sample statistical condition estimation for the generalized Sylvester equation 被引量:1
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作者 DIAO HuaiAn SHI XingHua WEI YiMin 《Science China Mathematics》 SCIE 2013年第5期967-982,共16页
Abstract In this paper, we investigate the effective condition numbers for the generalized Sylvester equation (AX - YB, DX - YE) = (C,F), where A,D ∈ Rm×m B,E ∈ Rn×n and C,F ∈ Rm×n. We apply the ... Abstract In this paper, we investigate the effective condition numbers for the generalized Sylvester equation (AX - YB, DX - YE) = (C,F), where A,D ∈ Rm×m B,E ∈ Rn×n and C,F ∈ Rm×n. We apply the small sample statistical method for the fast condition estimation of the generalized Sylvester equation, which requires (9(m2n + mn2) flops, comparing with (-O(m3 + n3) flops for the generalized Schur and generalized Hessenberg- Schur methods for solving the generalized Sylvester equation. Numerical examples illustrate the sharpness of our perturbation bounds. 展开更多
关键词 generalized Sylvester equation Sylvester equation effective condition number perturbation bound small sample statistical condition estimation (SCE)
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Variable Selection of Varying Dispersion Student-t Regression Models 被引量:1
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作者 ZHAO Weihua ZHANG Riquan 《Journal of Systems Science & Complexity》 SCIE EI CSCD 2015年第4期961-977,共17页
The Student-t regression model is a useful extension of the normal model,which can be used for statistical modeling of data sets involving errors with heavy tails and/or outliers and provides robust estimation of mean... The Student-t regression model is a useful extension of the normal model,which can be used for statistical modeling of data sets involving errors with heavy tails and/or outliers and provides robust estimation of means and regression coefficients.In this paper,the varying dispersion Student-t regression model is discussed,in which both the mean and the dispersion depend upon explanatory variables.The problem of interest is simultaneously select significant variables both in mean and dispersion model.A unified procedure which can simultaneously select significant variable is given.With appropriate selection of the tuning parameters,the consistency and the oracle property of the regularized estimators are established.Both the simulation study and two real data examples are used to illustrate the proposed methodologies. 展开更多
关键词 LASSO SCAD Student-t distribution variable selection varying dispersion.
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