A statistical downscaling approach based on multiple-linear-regression(MLR) for the prediction of summer precipitation anomaly in southeastern China was established,which was based on the outputs of seven operational ...A statistical downscaling approach based on multiple-linear-regression(MLR) for the prediction of summer precipitation anomaly in southeastern China was established,which was based on the outputs of seven operational dynamical models of Development of a European Multi-model Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction(DEMETER) and observed data.It was found that the anomaly correlation coefficients(ACCs) spatial pattern of June-July-August(JJA) precipitation over southeastern China between the seven models and the observation were increased significantly;especially in the central and the northeastern areas,the ACCs were all larger than 0.42(above 95% level) and 0.53(above 99% level).Meanwhile,the root-mean-square errors(RMSE) were reduced in each model along with the multi-model ensemble(MME) for some of the stations in the northeastern area;additionally,the value of RMSE difference between before and after downscaling at some stations were larger than 1 mm d-1.Regionally averaged JJA rainfall anomaly temporal series of the downscaling scheme can capture the main characteristics of observation,while the correlation coefficients(CCs) between the temporal variations of the observation and downscaling results varied from 0.52 to 0.69 with corresponding variations from-0.27 to 0.22 for CCs between the observation and outputs of the models.展开更多
The main objectives of this study were to introduce an integrated method for effectively identifying soil heavy metal pollution sources and apportioning their contributions, and apply it to a case study. The method co...The main objectives of this study were to introduce an integrated method for effectively identifying soil heavy metal pollution sources and apportioning their contributions, and apply it to a case study. The method combines the principal component analysis/absolute principal component scores (PCA/APCS) receptor model and geostatistics. The case study was conducted in an area of 31 km2 in the urban-rural transition zone of Wuhan, a metropolis of central China. 124 topsoil samples were collected for measuring the concentrations of eight heavy metal elements (Mn, Cu, Zn, Pb, Cd, Cr, Ni and Co). PCA results revealed that three major factors were responsible for soil heavy metal pollution, which were initially identified as "steel production", "agronomic input" and "coal consumption". The APCS technique, combined with multiple linear regression analysis, was then applied for source apportionment. Steel production appeared to be the main source for Ni, Co, Cd, Zn and Mn, agronomic input for Cu, and coal consumption for Pb and Cr. Geostatistical interpolation using ordinary kriging was finally used to map the spatial distributions of the contributions of pollution sources and further confirm the result interpretations. The introduced method appears to be an effective tool in soil pollution source apportionment and identification, and might provide valuable reference information for pollution control and environmental management.展开更多
基金supported by the special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (Meteorology) (Grant No. GYHY200906018)the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant Nos. 2010CB950304 and 2009CB421406)the Knowl-edge Innovation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. KZCX2-YW-QN202)
文摘A statistical downscaling approach based on multiple-linear-regression(MLR) for the prediction of summer precipitation anomaly in southeastern China was established,which was based on the outputs of seven operational dynamical models of Development of a European Multi-model Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction(DEMETER) and observed data.It was found that the anomaly correlation coefficients(ACCs) spatial pattern of June-July-August(JJA) precipitation over southeastern China between the seven models and the observation were increased significantly;especially in the central and the northeastern areas,the ACCs were all larger than 0.42(above 95% level) and 0.53(above 99% level).Meanwhile,the root-mean-square errors(RMSE) were reduced in each model along with the multi-model ensemble(MME) for some of the stations in the northeastern area;additionally,the value of RMSE difference between before and after downscaling at some stations were larger than 1 mm d-1.Regionally averaged JJA rainfall anomaly temporal series of the downscaling scheme can capture the main characteristics of observation,while the correlation coefficients(CCs) between the temporal variations of the observation and downscaling results varied from 0.52 to 0.69 with corresponding variations from-0.27 to 0.22 for CCs between the observation and outputs of the models.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 40971269)
文摘The main objectives of this study were to introduce an integrated method for effectively identifying soil heavy metal pollution sources and apportioning their contributions, and apply it to a case study. The method combines the principal component analysis/absolute principal component scores (PCA/APCS) receptor model and geostatistics. The case study was conducted in an area of 31 km2 in the urban-rural transition zone of Wuhan, a metropolis of central China. 124 topsoil samples were collected for measuring the concentrations of eight heavy metal elements (Mn, Cu, Zn, Pb, Cd, Cr, Ni and Co). PCA results revealed that three major factors were responsible for soil heavy metal pollution, which were initially identified as "steel production", "agronomic input" and "coal consumption". The APCS technique, combined with multiple linear regression analysis, was then applied for source apportionment. Steel production appeared to be the main source for Ni, Co, Cd, Zn and Mn, agronomic input for Cu, and coal consumption for Pb and Cr. Geostatistical interpolation using ordinary kriging was finally used to map the spatial distributions of the contributions of pollution sources and further confirm the result interpretations. The introduced method appears to be an effective tool in soil pollution source apportionment and identification, and might provide valuable reference information for pollution control and environmental management.
