Precise comprehensive evaluation of flood disaster loss is significant for the prevention and mitigation of flood disasters. Here, one of the difficulties involved is how to establish a model capable of describing the...Precise comprehensive evaluation of flood disaster loss is significant for the prevention and mitigation of flood disasters. Here, one of the difficulties involved is how to establish a model capable of describing the complex relation between the input and output data of the system of flood disaster loss. Genetic programming (GP) solves problems by using ideas from genetic algorithm and generates computer programs automatically. In this study a new method named the evaluation of the grade of flood disaster loss (EGFD) on the basis of improved genetic programming (IGP) is presented (IGP-EGFD). The flood disaster area and the direct economic loss are taken as the evaluation indexes of flood disaster loss. Obviously that the larger the evaluation index value, the larger the corresponding value of the grade of flood disaster loss is. Consequently the IGP code is designed to make the value of the grade of flood disaster be an increasing function of the index value. The result of the application of the IGP-EGFD model to Henan Province shows that a good function expression can be obtained within a bigger searched function space; and the model is of high precision and considerable practical significance. Thus, IGP-EGFD can be widely used in automatic modeling and other evaluation systems.展开更多
With the development of the global economy, interaction among different economic entities from one region is intensifying, which makes it significant to consider such interaction when constructing composite index for ...With the development of the global economy, interaction among different economic entities from one region is intensifying, which makes it significant to consider such interaction when constructing composite index for each country from one region. Recent advances in signal extraction and time series analysis have made such consideration feasible and practical. Singular spectrum analysis （SSA） is a well-developed technique for time series analysis and proven to be a powerful tool for signal extraction. The present study aims to introduce the usage of the SSA technique for multi-country business cycle analysis. The multivariate SSA （MSSA） is employed to construct a model-based composite index and the two dimensional SSA （2D-SSA） is employed to establish the multi-country composite index. Empirical results performed on Chinese economy demonstrate the accuracy and stability of MSSA-based composite index, and the 2D-SSA based composite indices for Asian countries confirm the efficiency of the technique in capturing the interaction among different countries.展开更多
基金The authors would like to acknowledge the funding support of the National Natural Science Foundation of China （No. 50579009, 70425001）.
文摘Precise comprehensive evaluation of flood disaster loss is significant for the prevention and mitigation of flood disasters. Here, one of the difficulties involved is how to establish a model capable of describing the complex relation between the input and output data of the system of flood disaster loss. Genetic programming (GP) solves problems by using ideas from genetic algorithm and generates computer programs automatically. In this study a new method named the evaluation of the grade of flood disaster loss (EGFD) on the basis of improved genetic programming (IGP) is presented (IGP-EGFD). The flood disaster area and the direct economic loss are taken as the evaluation indexes of flood disaster loss. Obviously that the larger the evaluation index value, the larger the corresponding value of the grade of flood disaster loss is. Consequently the IGP code is designed to make the value of the grade of flood disaster be an increasing function of the index value. The result of the application of the IGP-EGFD model to Henan Province shows that a good function expression can be obtained within a bigger searched function space; and the model is of high precision and considerable practical significance. Thus, IGP-EGFD can be widely used in automatic modeling and other evaluation systems.
基金supported by the National Science Foundation of China under Grant No.71101142Presidential Award of Chinese Academy of Sciences
文摘With the development of the global economy, interaction among different economic entities from one region is intensifying, which makes it significant to consider such interaction when constructing composite index for each country from one region. Recent advances in signal extraction and time series analysis have made such consideration feasible and practical. Singular spectrum analysis （SSA） is a well-developed technique for time series analysis and proven to be a powerful tool for signal extraction. The present study aims to introduce the usage of the SSA technique for multi-country business cycle analysis. The multivariate SSA （MSSA） is employed to construct a model-based composite index and the two dimensional SSA （2D-SSA） is employed to establish the multi-country composite index. Empirical results performed on Chinese economy demonstrate the accuracy and stability of MSSA-based composite index, and the 2D-SSA based composite indices for Asian countries confirm the efficiency of the technique in capturing the interaction among different countries.
