黄河流域水资源均衡调控理论与模型研究

变化环境下缺水流域正面临日益严峻的水资源供需矛盾,用水效率与公平协调难度极大。本文在梳理总结已有水资源调控理论的基础上,建立了适用于黄河等缺水流域的水资源均衡调控理论与方法。基于社会福利学原理构建了统筹用水效率与公平的水资源均衡调控函数,通过水资源均衡调控函数引导水资源配置。综合水资源经济价值、社会价值和生态价值,建立了用水效率表征指标;统筹地区公平和行业协调,建立了用水公平表征指标。以黄河流域为例,建立了黄河流域水资源均衡调控模型,进行黄河流域水资源均衡方案分析。实例研究结果证明,该模型通过兼顾用水效率与用水公平目标,为黄河“87”分水方案优化提供技术支撑,也可为其他缺水流域或区域的水资源均衡调控提供技术方法。

Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources in Diyala River Basin, Iraq

Diyala River is the third largest tributary of the Tigris River running 445 km length and draining an area of 32,600 km2. The river is the major source of water supply for Diyala City for municipal, domestic, agriculture and other purposes. Diyala River Basin currently is suffering from water scarcity and contamination problems. Up-to-date studies have shown that blue and green waters of a basin have been demonstrating increasing variability contributing to more severe droughts and floods seemingly due to climate change. To obtain better understanding of the impacts of climate change on water resources in Diyala River Basin in near 2046-2064 and distant future 2080~2100, SWAT （soil and water assessment tool） was used. The model is first examined for its capability of capturing the basin characteristics, and then, projections from six GCMs （general circulation models） are incorporated to assess the impacts of climate change on water resources under three emission scenarios： A2, AIB and B1. The results showed deteriorating water resources regime into the future.

Study on Water Pollution Control of Huaihe River and Countermeasures

Huaihe River is one of three major rivers in China with a large population and developed economy. By the 1970s, the water quality of Huaihe River was deteriorating daily and more than a hundred serious pollution accidents of water quality happened and caused the inestimable losses in the production, life and health of residents along the river and terribly damaged the ecological system of the river. Through the continuous large-scale treatment for more than 10 years, the deterioration of water quality in Huaihe River has been basically inhibited. Nevertheless, the water pollution in Huaihe River is, on the whole, still very serious for many reasons, including special climatic conditions, terrible lack of water resource, obsolete industrial structure and unsound management system for the river, etc. This essay deeply analyzes the rea- sons why the water pollution of Huaihe River is ＂chronic＂ and puts forward the corresponding countermeasures for how to continuously improve the water quality of the river. In the end, this essay argues that it still takes 30-50 years or even a longer period, even if every measures are implemented smoothly and strictly, to actually make the water of Huaihe River clean and gradually restore its normal ecological and environmental functions.

Benefits Evaluation of Water Resources Used for Ecosystem in Shiyang River Basin of Gansu Province

Among the numerous inland river basins in the arid northwest China,Shiyang River basin is known for its most serious water shortage that constrains its social and economic developments and for some of the worst ecological and environmental deterioration in China.The research on the value of water resources used for ecosystem is the basis for reasonable allocation of water resources between users of ecosystem and economic system.In this paper the concept of dynamic value for the ecosystem services is proposed.A modified coefficient for the ecosystem service value per unit area is proposed according to the cover degrees of biomes combined with expert consultation.Based on the developmental stage coefficient and scarcity of ecological resources,a dynamic evaluation method is proposed.The theoretical formula and simple calculation formula of the sharing benefits coefficient and benefits per unit ecological water utilization are proposed.The result shows that the benefit of unit ecological water utilization in the lower reach was greater than that in the upper reach in the Shiyang River basin.

Water Security Situation in Haihe River Basin after South-to-North Water Transfer Project

The over-exploitation of water resources in the Haihe River Basin （HRB） has now become a serious problem. This is clearly evidenced by the fact that many local rivers and lakes are drying up and the total amount of over-exploited groundwater has reached over 1000×10^8m^3. It is important to note that the exploitation of water resources in HRB was reasonable before 1979. After 1980, however, over-exploitation happened with an annual average amount of 40×10^8m^3. Both the dry season and rapid economic growth in HRB took place at the same time. Therefore, the over-exploitation of water in HRB was actually the negative result of the conjunction of a continuous dry season and rapid economic growth. So the over-exploitation would not be as serious as it is today if either of the above two stopped. After the first stage of south-to-north water transfer project, the water shortage problem in HRB could be eased for the following reasons： firstly, water transfer project will bring to the Basin 60x108m3 water resources; secondly, a wet season will come back eventually according to natural law of climate variability; finally, its agricultural and industrial use and total water consumption all have decreased from the peak value, so that the groundwater table will raise certainly and ecological water in rivers and lakes that were dried-up will be partly restored. In the future, the main problem of water resources security in HRB will include water pollution, operation risk of the south-to-north water transfer project, groundwater pollution and engineering geological hazards that may be brought by groundwater rise. The proposed countermeasures are as follows： keeping strengthening water demand management, raising water price as well as subsidies for the low- income family and improving other water related policies, preventing and dealing with water pollution seriously and getting fully prepared for the operation of south-to-north water transfer project.

Water Shortage Risk Assessment in the Haihe River Basin, China

This paper studies water balance in the Haihe River Basin, China and assesses water shortage risk for the period 1994–2007. The authors identify that there is a water shortage problem in this area and propose that the non-intake water consumption （NIWC） is a very important water balance element. The NIWC in the Haihe River Basin flow is 5.91×109m3 in normal years. It was concluded from our evaluation that the water shortage risk during 1994–2007 was very high. Using international water risk assessment theory, multiyear risk indicators in Haihe River Basin can be calculated. Water risk rate, resiliency, stability, and vulnerability for the Haihe River Basin for the period 1994–2007 were 0.786, 0.000, 0.154 and 0.173 respectively. With the use of counter-force factors and adoption of different priorities to different water consumers, the water shortage risk can be decreased. The integrated water shortage risk indicators of the Haihe River Basin are 0.095–0.328. In this study, water availability from the South-North Water Diversion Project is also considered. By the year 2014, about 5×109m3 of water will be diverted from the Yangtse River, and the water shortage risk in the Haihe River Basin will drop from 0.229–0.297 to 0.152–0.234 under an inflow water frequency of 50%–75%. However, a risk of water shortage in this area will persist.

Water storage variations of the Yangtze,Yellow,and Zhujiang river basins derived from the DEOS Mass Transport (DMT-1) model

In general, China is short of water resources and some regions even experience a shortage of daily water supply. This could threaten the stability and economic development of the nation. A study on the water storage variations is especially important for the water management and storage prediction in three largest river basins of China, namely, Yangtze, Yellow, and Zhujiang, where the most dense population and leading economic regions are located. The satellite gravity mission GRACE （Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment） provides an opportunity to macroseopically identify water （or mass） variations in the Earth＇s system with a spatial resolution of 300-400 km and a temporal resolution of about one month. We use the first release of the DEOS （Delft Institute of Earth Observation and Space Systems） Mass Transport （DMT-1） model based on GRACE data to analyze water storage changes in the three river basins. The DMT-1 model consists of monthly solutions, which are computed using an innovative methodology. The methodology includes, in particular, the application of a statistically optimal Wiener-type filter based on full varianee-covariance matrices of noise and signal. This results in particularly sharp mass variation maps. Taking one monthly solution as an example, we compare the results derived from the DMT-1 model with ones produced with the standard post-processing scheme based on a combination of the de-striping and Gaussian filtering. The comparison shows that the DMT-1 model outperforms the other models and is suitable for the analysis of the mass changes in river basins. A subset of the DMT-1 solutions in the interval between February 2003 and May 2008 is used to estimate the secular trends and seasonal variations for the three river basins. The estimated trends show that the water storage of the Yellow River basin does not have significant changes, while the Zhujiang and Yangtze river basins have a large and statistically significant water storage increase. The estimation of seasonal variations demonstrates that the water storage variations in Yangtze and Zhujiang river basins are almost in the same phase. The amplitude of variations in the Zhujiang River basin is larger than that in Yangtze. No clear annual variations are observed in the Yellow River basin. The observed water storage variations generally coincide with the observations and conclusions presented in the hydrological reports of the Chinese Ministry of Water Resources