异质出行群体的合理划分是提升出行需求预测准确性和实施主动式交通管理的关键,针对目前城市多方式出行群体划分研究的不足,在分析出行习惯与偏好差异影响因素的基础上,提出基于潜在类分析(Latent Class Cluster Analysis,LCCA)的城市...异质出行群体的合理划分是提升出行需求预测准确性和实施主动式交通管理的关键,针对目前城市多方式出行群体划分研究的不足,在分析出行习惯与偏好差异影响因素的基础上,提出基于潜在类分析(Latent Class Cluster Analysis,LCCA)的城市异质出行群体识别方法.以北京市为例,应用揭示性偏好调查进行基础数据收集,运用Mplus软件编程实现LCCA模型估计.模型将出行者划分为三类异质出行群体,群体1:低出行+方式均衡组(20.4%),群体2:中高出行+小汽车偏好组(30.3%),群体3:高出行+绿色交通组(49.3%).模型回归结果表明:群体2、3的百分比与北京市小汽车、公共交通出行比例之差均不超过2%,证明提出的出行群体识别方法有效,个人属性、出行者对各交通方式的认知与态度对群体隶属影响显著.针对各异质出行群体提出了相应的绿色交通发展措施,为城市交管部门的精细化出行管控提供重要依据.展开更多
We propose an aggregation model of a two-species system to mimic the growth of cities＇ population and assets, in which irreversible coagulation reactions and exchange reactions occur between any two aggregates of th...We propose an aggregation model of a two-species system to mimic the growth of cities＇ population and assets, in which irreversible coagulation reactions and exchange reactions occur between any two aggregates of the same species, and the monomer-birth reactions of one species occur by the catalysis Of the other species. In the case with population-catalyzed birth of assets, the rate kernel of an asset aggregate Bκ of size k grows to become an aggregate Bκ＋1 through a monomer-birth catalyzed by a population aggregate Aj of size j is J（κ,j） = Jkjλ. And in mutually catalyzed birth model, the birth rate kernels of population and assets are H（k,j）=Hkjη and J（k,j） = Jkjλ, respectively. The kinetics of the system is investigated based on the mean-field theory. In the model of population-catalyzed birth of aseets, the long-time asymptotic behavior of the assets aggregate size distribution obeys the conventional or modified scaling form. In mutually catalyzed birth system, the asymptotic behaviors of population and assets obey the conventional scaling form in the case of η=λ =0, and they obey the modified scaling form in the case of η=0, λ=1. In the case of η = λ= 1, the total mass of population aggregates and that of asset aggregates both grow much faster than those in population-catalyzed birth of assets model, and they approaches to infinite values in finite time.展开更多
文摘异质出行群体的合理划分是提升出行需求预测准确性和实施主动式交通管理的关键,针对目前城市多方式出行群体划分研究的不足,在分析出行习惯与偏好差异影响因素的基础上,提出基于潜在类分析(Latent Class Cluster Analysis,LCCA)的城市异质出行群体识别方法.以北京市为例,应用揭示性偏好调查进行基础数据收集,运用Mplus软件编程实现LCCA模型估计.模型将出行者划分为三类异质出行群体,群体1:低出行+方式均衡组(20.4%),群体2:中高出行+小汽车偏好组(30.3%),群体3:高出行+绿色交通组(49.3%).模型回归结果表明:群体2、3的百分比与北京市小汽车、公共交通出行比例之差均不超过2%,证明提出的出行群体识别方法有效,个人属性、出行者对各交通方式的认知与态度对群体隶属影响显著.针对各异质出行群体提出了相应的绿色交通发展措施,为城市交管部门的精细化出行管控提供重要依据.
基金The project supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.10275048 and 10175008, and the Natural Science Foundation of Zhejiang Province of China under Grant No. 102067
文摘We propose an aggregation model of a two-species system to mimic the growth of cities＇ population and assets, in which irreversible coagulation reactions and exchange reactions occur between any two aggregates of the same species, and the monomer-birth reactions of one species occur by the catalysis Of the other species. In the case with population-catalyzed birth of assets, the rate kernel of an asset aggregate Bκ of size k grows to become an aggregate Bκ＋1 through a monomer-birth catalyzed by a population aggregate Aj of size j is J（κ,j） = Jkjλ. And in mutually catalyzed birth model, the birth rate kernels of population and assets are H（k,j）=Hkjη and J（k,j） = Jkjλ, respectively. The kinetics of the system is investigated based on the mean-field theory. In the model of population-catalyzed birth of aseets, the long-time asymptotic behavior of the assets aggregate size distribution obeys the conventional or modified scaling form. In mutually catalyzed birth system, the asymptotic behaviors of population and assets obey the conventional scaling form in the case of η=λ =0, and they obey the modified scaling form in the case of η=0, λ=1. In the case of η = λ= 1, the total mass of population aggregates and that of asset aggregates both grow much faster than those in population-catalyzed birth of assets model, and they approaches to infinite values in finite time.
