风电功率区间预测是应对大规模风电机组并网运行的有效手段之一。针对山东风电并网运行建立了一种考虑山东半岛不同风能特征的风电功率区间预测模型。对比了不同风能条件下半岛内风电场出力特征和风电功率历史预测误差分布特点,发现风...风电功率区间预测是应对大规模风电机组并网运行的有效手段之一。针对山东风电并网运行建立了一种考虑山东半岛不同风能特征的风电功率区间预测模型。对比了不同风能条件下半岛内风电场出力特征和风电功率历史预测误差分布特点,发现风电场出力分布范围随风速增加呈"先增后减"趋势,在出力分布范围较大的风速区间内,预测误差也相对较大。以风速、风向和预测功率为特征变量,在利用层次聚类法对样本数据进行聚类分析基础上,采用非参量核密度估计方法,建立了各类样本在不同风向条件下风速-风电功率预测误差的联合概率密度分布模型。将该模型与NARX(nonlinear auto regressive models with exogenous inputs)网络确定性风电功率预测结果相结合,得到一定置信水平的风电功率区间预测结果,最后通过实际算例验证了模型的有效性。展开更多
The effects of isotope substitution on stereodynamic properties for the reactions C^+ + H_2/HD/HT →CH^+ + H/D/T have been studied applying a quasi classical trajectory method occurring on the new ground state CH_2^+ ...The effects of isotope substitution on stereodynamic properties for the reactions C^+ + H_2/HD/HT →CH^+ + H/D/T have been studied applying a quasi classical trajectory method occurring on the new ground state CH_2^+ potential energy surface [J. Chem. Phys. 142(2015) 124302]. In the center of mass coordinates applying the quasi classical trajectory method to investigate the orientation and the alignment of the product molecule. Differential cross section and three angle distribution functions P(θ_r), P(ф_r), P(θ_r, ф_r) on the potential energy surface that fixed the collision energy with a value is 40 kcal/mol have been studied. The isotope effect becomes more and more important with the reagent molecules H_2 changing into HD and HT. P(θ_r, ф_r) as the joint probability density function of both polar angles θ_r and ф_r, which can illustrate more detailed dynamics information. The isotope effect is obvious influence on the properties of stereodynamics in the reactions of C^+ + H_2/HD/HT → CH^+ + H/D/T.展开更多
文摘风电功率区间预测是应对大规模风电机组并网运行的有效手段之一。针对山东风电并网运行建立了一种考虑山东半岛不同风能特征的风电功率区间预测模型。对比了不同风能条件下半岛内风电场出力特征和风电功率历史预测误差分布特点,发现风电场出力分布范围随风速增加呈"先增后减"趋势,在出力分布范围较大的风速区间内,预测误差也相对较大。以风速、风向和预测功率为特征变量,在利用层次聚类法对样本数据进行聚类分析基础上,采用非参量核密度估计方法,建立了各类样本在不同风向条件下风速-风电功率预测误差的联合概率密度分布模型。将该模型与NARX(nonlinear auto regressive models with exogenous inputs)网络确定性风电功率预测结果相结合,得到一定置信水平的风电功率区间预测结果,最后通过实际算例验证了模型的有效性。
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.11474141,11274149,11544015the Program for Liaoning Excellent Talents in University under Grant No.LJQ2015040the Scientific Research Foundation for the Returned Overseas Chinese Scholars,State Education Ministry(2014-1685)
文摘The effects of isotope substitution on stereodynamic properties for the reactions C^+ + H_2/HD/HT →CH^+ + H/D/T have been studied applying a quasi classical trajectory method occurring on the new ground state CH_2^+ potential energy surface [J. Chem. Phys. 142(2015) 124302]. In the center of mass coordinates applying the quasi classical trajectory method to investigate the orientation and the alignment of the product molecule. Differential cross section and three angle distribution functions P(θ_r), P(ф_r), P(θ_r, ф_r) on the potential energy surface that fixed the collision energy with a value is 40 kcal/mol have been studied. The isotope effect becomes more and more important with the reagent molecules H_2 changing into HD and HT. P(θ_r, ф_r) as the joint probability density function of both polar angles θ_r and ф_r, which can illustrate more detailed dynamics information. The isotope effect is obvious influence on the properties of stereodynamics in the reactions of C^+ + H_2/HD/HT → CH^+ + H/D/T.
