Data from the World Federation of Exchanges show that Brazil＇s Sao Paulo stock exchange is one of the largest worldwide in terms of market value. Thus, the objective of this study is to obtain univariate and bivariat...Data from the World Federation of Exchanges show that Brazil＇s Sao Paulo stock exchange is one of the largest worldwide in terms of market value. Thus, the objective of this study is to obtain univariate and bivariate forecasting models based on intraday data from the futures and spot markets of the BOVESPA index. The interest is to verify if there exist arbitrage opportunities in Brazilian financial market. To this end, three econometric forecasting models were built： ARFIMA, vector autoregressive （VAR）, and vector error correction （VEC）. Furthermore, it presents the results of a Granger causality test for the aforementioned series. This type of study shows that it is important to identify arbitrage opportunities in financial markets and, in particular, in the application of these models on data of this nature. In terms of the forecasts made with these models, VEC showed better results. The causality test shows that futures BOVESPA index Granger causes spot BOVESPA index. This result may indicate arbitrage opportunities in Brazil.展开更多
The paper proposes a new approach -- The decomposition-based vector autoregressive （DVAR） model to scrutinize the predictability of the UK stock market. Empirical studies performed on the monthly British FTSE100 ind...The paper proposes a new approach -- The decomposition-based vector autoregressive （DVAR） model to scrutinize the predictability of the UK stock market. Empirical studies performed on the monthly British FTSE100 index over 1984-2012 confirm that the DVAR model does provide informative forecasts for both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts. Trading strategies based on the DVAR forecasts can Significantly beat the simple buy-and-hold, which demonstrates the valuable information provided by technical analysis in the UK stock market.展开更多
文摘Data from the World Federation of Exchanges show that Brazil＇s Sao Paulo stock exchange is one of the largest worldwide in terms of market value. Thus, the objective of this study is to obtain univariate and bivariate forecasting models based on intraday data from the futures and spot markets of the BOVESPA index. The interest is to verify if there exist arbitrage opportunities in Brazilian financial market. To this end, three econometric forecasting models were built： ARFIMA, vector autoregressive （VAR）, and vector error correction （VEC）. Furthermore, it presents the results of a Granger causality test for the aforementioned series. This type of study shows that it is important to identify arbitrage opportunities in financial markets and, in particular, in the application of these models on data of this nature. In terms of the forecasts made with these models, VEC showed better results. The causality test shows that futures BOVESPA index Granger causes spot BOVESPA index. This result may indicate arbitrage opportunities in Brazil.
基金supported by Social Science Foundation of Ministry of Education of China under Grant No.12YJC790001National Social Science Foundation of China under Grant No.12CJY117+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.71003057 and 71373262the Program for Innovative Research Team and“211”Program in UIBE
文摘The paper proposes a new approach -- The decomposition-based vector autoregressive （DVAR） model to scrutinize the predictability of the UK stock market. Empirical studies performed on the monthly British FTSE100 index over 1984-2012 confirm that the DVAR model does provide informative forecasts for both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts. Trading strategies based on the DVAR forecasts can Significantly beat the simple buy-and-hold, which demonstrates the valuable information provided by technical analysis in the UK stock market.
