The risk and performance of ST stocks are studied.The SVM method is applied on 100 general stocks and 100 ST stocks selected from the website,and a criterion is gotten to select stocks,then the risk of these sample st...The risk and performance of ST stocks are studied.The SVM method is applied on 100 general stocks and 100 ST stocks selected from the website,and a criterion is gotten to select stocks,then the risk of these sample stocks is analysed.In the performance evaluation,the SVM method is also applied on the 100 general stocks and 100 ST stocks according to the return per share,and 57 stocks which are all +1 are selected.Their equally weighted return rate is only-0.02%,but equally weighted return rate of 31 general stocks is 13.23%,that of 26 ST stocks is-96.15%.Naturally,we conclude that ST stocks are unsteady and do not deserve long-term investment.From the Chinese fund website,we know that equally weighted return rate of stock fund in 2004 was-3.3%,so the equally weighted return rate of the selected stocks(except ST stocks)is much higher than that of average return rate.展开更多
Recent studies analyzing the liquidity of emerging equity markets （EEM） focus mainly on two independent variables： （1） the turnover ratio and （2） value of equity traded. They ignore the impact of the market con...Recent studies analyzing the liquidity of emerging equity markets （EEM） focus mainly on two independent variables： （1） the turnover ratio and （2） value of equity traded. They ignore the impact of the market concentration of stock traded which could generate price distortion/manipulation. This study empirically estimates the impact of market structure （concentration） and liquidity （turnover ratio） on equity performance （price/returns） of 19 EEM. We use panel data for the period 1992-2000 and least square dummy variable regression technique that measure fixed effects and the dynamics of adjustment. The results show the significance of both independent variables. Liquidity favours investment, and market concentration suggests the potential for market/price manipulation that requires regulatory policies. These results indicate success of reform policies aimed at capital deepening to improve efficient capital allocation and provide profitable investment opportunities.展开更多
This paper focuses on a direct quantitative identification of crisis periods in selected emerging stock markets from four continent-based regions of Europe, Latin America, East Asia, and Middle East and North Africa ...This paper focuses on a direct quantitative identification of crisis periods in selected emerging stock markets from four continent-based regions of Europe, Latin America, East Asia, and Middle East and North Africa （MENA）, in the context of an influence of the 2007 U.S. subprime financial crisis. The 17 emerging stock markets and, for comparison, the U.S. stock market are investigated. A statistical method of dividing market states into bullish and bearish markets, based on monthly logarithmic returns of major stock market indexes, is employed. The analyzed sample period begins in January 2003 and ends in December 2013. As there is no unanimity in the literature about the crisis periods in the continent-based regions, a formal statistical identification of crises is worthwhile to conduct. Furthermore, the effect of increasing cross-market correlations in the crisis compared to the pre-crisis period in the context of contagion is examining. To address this issue, both standard contemporaneous cross-correlations and volatility-adjusted cross-correlations are applied. The results are consistent with the literature and confn＇m that tests for contagion based on cross-market correlations are problematic due to the bias introduced by changing volatility in market returns. As contagion can be confused with globalization, the globalization tests in the group of international investigated markets are employed. The results generally do not confirm a global world market integration effect, i.e. there is no reason to reject the research hypothesis of no globalization during the 2007-2009 financial crisis.展开更多
Current literature shows that short sellers earn positive returns on their trades and that the superior performance of short sellers is due to their better analytic skills. In this paper, we investigate, if it is poss...Current literature shows that short sellers earn positive returns on their trades and that the superior performance of short sellers is due to their better analytic skills. In this paper, we investigate, if it is possible for a short seller to make profits even if he does not have insider information or is not sophisticated. We use a one period model and assume that stock price follows a random walk with a positive drift to show that the＇ expected return for an uninformed short seller is always negative and his risks are always greater than the risks of a stock buyer. Hence a short seller would not trade unless he has superior trading skills and/or information. We also show that the market conditions when the stock＇s dividend yield is greater than the risk free rate gives the shortsellers advantage over stock buyers.展开更多
This study examines the association between corporate governance mechanisms （i.e., internal corporate governance, ownership structure, and external corporate govemance） and stock investment risk （i.e., idiosyncrati...This study examines the association between corporate governance mechanisms （i.e., internal corporate governance, ownership structure, and external corporate govemance） and stock investment risk （i.e., idiosyncratic risk, systematic risk, and total risk of non-financial listed firms in Thailand in 2007）. The multiple regression analysis is employed to test the hypotheses, and the results suggest that firms with higher market power have lower systematic risk. It implies that firms with higher market power can reduce the unavoidable risk when compared with firms that have lower market power. Firms with more media coverage will have higher systematic risk, which indicates that firms which publish more news will have higher unavoidable risk. This research may be the first to provide the evidence of the association between corporate govemance mechanisms and stock investment risk. Interestingly still, this study has utilized the data of Thailand, which is an emerging market economy with a capital market structure different from those of the developed market economies, and the results of this study are anticipated to be applicable to other similar studies in other emerging market economies.展开更多
This paper applies Markov switching techniques to examine the different conditions of Chinese Stock Market from 1995 to 2004, Three contrasting regimes are identified： a bear market, a bull market and a speculative m...This paper applies Markov switching techniques to examine the different conditions of Chinese Stock Market from 1995 to 2004, Three contrasting regimes are identified： a bear market, a bull market and a speculative market, This paper also surveys the time period and probability of each regime, The timing of regime switching reflects the strong policy market feature of Chinese stock market.展开更多
For a Stock Market,the critical problem is the maintenance of its liquidity.Market liquidity can be described in various ways,in particular, in terms of the bid/offer spread and the market depth.Model of market liquid...For a Stock Market,the critical problem is the maintenance of its liquidity.Market liquidity can be described in various ways,in particular, in terms of the bid/offer spread and the market depth.Model of market liquidity dynamics has been proposed in Schmidt,A.B.'literate.In our study,we improve his model.On one hand,we think that trading volume is determined by the total number of traders,as well as the relations between the numbers of buyers and sellers,while the model of Schmidt only considers the first item.On the other hand,Schmidt assumes that the number of “newcomers”in the market is in proportion to the current number of trades.However,we all know that the continual rise or fall of the price will also attract more buyers or sellers,that is,“newcomers”,into the market,which he has not taken for granted.We also prove it to be a chaos model through analysis of Lyapunov exponent.On the assumption that price variation can be neglected,we discuss the conditions in which chaos will emerge.Finally,we implement a computer simulation of the model in MATLAB,and get more interesting results.展开更多
This paper studies an investment and consumption problem with stochastic interest rate,where interest rate is governed by the Vasicek model.The financial market is composed of one riskfree asset and one risky asset,in...This paper studies an investment and consumption problem with stochastic interest rate,where interest rate is governed by the Vasicek model.The financial market is composed of one riskfree asset and one risky asset,in which stock price dynamics is assumed to be generally correlated with interest rate dynamics.The aim is to maximize expected utility of consumption and terminal wealth in the finite horizon.Legendre transform is used to deal with this investment and consumption problem and the explicit solutions of the optimal investment and consumption strategies with power and logarithm preference are achieved.Finally,the authors add a numerical example to analyze the effect of market parameters on the optimal investment and consumption strategy and provide some economic implications.展开更多
An admissible manifold wavelet kernel is proposed to construct manifold wavelet support vector machine(MWSVM) for stock returns forecasting.The manifold wavelet kernel is obtained by incorporating manifold theory into...An admissible manifold wavelet kernel is proposed to construct manifold wavelet support vector machine(MWSVM) for stock returns forecasting.The manifold wavelet kernel is obtained by incorporating manifold theory into wavelet technique in support vector machine(SVM).Since manifold wavelet function can yield features that describe of the stock time series both at various locations and at varying time granularities,the MWSVM can approximate arbitrary nonlinear functions and forecast stock returns accurately.The applicability and validity of MWSVM for stock returns forecasting is confirmed through experiments on real-world stock data.展开更多
文摘The risk and performance of ST stocks are studied.The SVM method is applied on 100 general stocks and 100 ST stocks selected from the website,and a criterion is gotten to select stocks,then the risk of these sample stocks is analysed.In the performance evaluation,the SVM method is also applied on the 100 general stocks and 100 ST stocks according to the return per share,and 57 stocks which are all +1 are selected.Their equally weighted return rate is only-0.02%,but equally weighted return rate of 31 general stocks is 13.23%,that of 26 ST stocks is-96.15%.Naturally,we conclude that ST stocks are unsteady and do not deserve long-term investment.From the Chinese fund website,we know that equally weighted return rate of stock fund in 2004 was-3.3%,so the equally weighted return rate of the selected stocks(except ST stocks)is much higher than that of average return rate.
文摘Recent studies analyzing the liquidity of emerging equity markets （EEM） focus mainly on two independent variables： （1） the turnover ratio and （2） value of equity traded. They ignore the impact of the market concentration of stock traded which could generate price distortion/manipulation. This study empirically estimates the impact of market structure （concentration） and liquidity （turnover ratio） on equity performance （price/returns） of 19 EEM. We use panel data for the period 1992-2000 and least square dummy variable regression technique that measure fixed effects and the dynamics of adjustment. The results show the significance of both independent variables. Liquidity favours investment, and market concentration suggests the potential for market/price manipulation that requires regulatory policies. These results indicate success of reform policies aimed at capital deepening to improve efficient capital allocation and provide profitable investment opportunities.
文摘This paper focuses on a direct quantitative identification of crisis periods in selected emerging stock markets from four continent-based regions of Europe, Latin America, East Asia, and Middle East and North Africa （MENA）, in the context of an influence of the 2007 U.S. subprime financial crisis. The 17 emerging stock markets and, for comparison, the U.S. stock market are investigated. A statistical method of dividing market states into bullish and bearish markets, based on monthly logarithmic returns of major stock market indexes, is employed. The analyzed sample period begins in January 2003 and ends in December 2013. As there is no unanimity in the literature about the crisis periods in the continent-based regions, a formal statistical identification of crises is worthwhile to conduct. Furthermore, the effect of increasing cross-market correlations in the crisis compared to the pre-crisis period in the context of contagion is examining. To address this issue, both standard contemporaneous cross-correlations and volatility-adjusted cross-correlations are applied. The results are consistent with the literature and confn＇m that tests for contagion based on cross-market correlations are problematic due to the bias introduced by changing volatility in market returns. As contagion can be confused with globalization, the globalization tests in the group of international investigated markets are employed. The results generally do not confirm a global world market integration effect, i.e. there is no reason to reject the research hypothesis of no globalization during the 2007-2009 financial crisis.
文摘Current literature shows that short sellers earn positive returns on their trades and that the superior performance of short sellers is due to their better analytic skills. In this paper, we investigate, if it is possible for a short seller to make profits even if he does not have insider information or is not sophisticated. We use a one period model and assume that stock price follows a random walk with a positive drift to show that the＇ expected return for an uninformed short seller is always negative and his risks are always greater than the risks of a stock buyer. Hence a short seller would not trade unless he has superior trading skills and/or information. We also show that the market conditions when the stock＇s dividend yield is greater than the risk free rate gives the shortsellers advantage over stock buyers.
文摘This study examines the association between corporate governance mechanisms （i.e., internal corporate governance, ownership structure, and external corporate govemance） and stock investment risk （i.e., idiosyncratic risk, systematic risk, and total risk of non-financial listed firms in Thailand in 2007）. The multiple regression analysis is employed to test the hypotheses, and the results suggest that firms with higher market power have lower systematic risk. It implies that firms with higher market power can reduce the unavoidable risk when compared with firms that have lower market power. Firms with more media coverage will have higher systematic risk, which indicates that firms which publish more news will have higher unavoidable risk. This research may be the first to provide the evidence of the association between corporate govemance mechanisms and stock investment risk. Interestingly still, this study has utilized the data of Thailand, which is an emerging market economy with a capital market structure different from those of the developed market economies, and the results of this study are anticipated to be applicable to other similar studies in other emerging market economies.
文摘This paper applies Markov switching techniques to examine the different conditions of Chinese Stock Market from 1995 to 2004, Three contrasting regimes are identified： a bear market, a bull market and a speculative market, This paper also surveys the time period and probability of each regime, The timing of regime switching reflects the strong policy market feature of Chinese stock market.
基金This research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(79970115).
文摘For a Stock Market,the critical problem is the maintenance of its liquidity.Market liquidity can be described in various ways,in particular, in terms of the bid/offer spread and the market depth.Model of market liquidity dynamics has been proposed in Schmidt,A.B.'literate.In our study,we improve his model.On one hand,we think that trading volume is determined by the total number of traders,as well as the relations between the numbers of buyers and sellers,while the model of Schmidt only considers the first item.On the other hand,Schmidt assumes that the number of “newcomers”in the market is in proportion to the current number of trades.However,we all know that the continual rise or fall of the price will also attract more buyers or sellers,that is,“newcomers”,into the market,which he has not taken for granted.We also prove it to be a chaos model through analysis of Lyapunov exponent.On the assumption that price variation can be neglected,we discuss the conditions in which chaos will emerge.Finally,we implement a computer simulation of the model in MATLAB,and get more interesting results.
基金supported by the Humanities and Social Science Research Youth Foundation of Ministry of Education of China under Grant No.11YJC790006Center for Research of Regulation and Policy of Zhejiang Province of China under Grant No.13JDGZ03YB+1 种基金the project of National Statistical Science of China under Grant No.2013LY125the Higher School Science and Technology Development Foundation of Tianjin of China under Grant No.20100821
文摘This paper studies an investment and consumption problem with stochastic interest rate,where interest rate is governed by the Vasicek model.The financial market is composed of one riskfree asset and one risky asset,in which stock price dynamics is assumed to be generally correlated with interest rate dynamics.The aim is to maximize expected utility of consumption and terminal wealth in the finite horizon.Legendre transform is used to deal with this investment and consumption problem and the explicit solutions of the optimal investment and consumption strategies with power and logarithm preference are achieved.Finally,the authors add a numerical example to analyze the effect of market parameters on the optimal investment and consumption strategy and provide some economic implications.
基金the Hunan Natural Science Foundation(No. 09JJ3129)the Hunan Key Social Science Foundation (No. 09ZDB04)the Hunan Social Science Foundation (No. 08JD28)
文摘An admissible manifold wavelet kernel is proposed to construct manifold wavelet support vector machine(MWSVM) for stock returns forecasting.The manifold wavelet kernel is obtained by incorporating manifold theory into wavelet technique in support vector machine(SVM).Since manifold wavelet function can yield features that describe of the stock time series both at various locations and at varying time granularities,the MWSVM can approximate arbitrary nonlinear functions and forecast stock returns accurately.The applicability and validity of MWSVM for stock returns forecasting is confirmed through experiments on real-world stock data.
