针对传统组合预测模型大多是通过建立单一准则方程进行优化,而没有更好地考虑各单一模型之间互支持信息带来的不确定性问题,建立基于多准则的组合预测模型权重确定算法。首先,通过建立区间数模型构建样本区间距离并进行相关折算归一化...针对传统组合预测模型大多是通过建立单一准则方程进行优化,而没有更好地考虑各单一模型之间互支持信息带来的不确定性问题,建立基于多准则的组合预测模型权重确定算法。首先,通过建立区间数模型构建样本区间距离并进行相关折算归一化生成样本的基本概率分布BPA(basic probability assignment),作为单一预测模型的初级权重;然后,通过对D-S证据理论进行改进,建立证据可信度、证据精度和证据自冲突系数3个准则分别用于评价单一模型自身精度及其之间互相支持信息,通过对3个准则排序得到综合排序值作为单一模型初级权重的权重调整系数;最后,综合多时刻数据归一化后确定单一模型的最终权重用于组合预测。研究结果表明:经过权重调整后的组合预测精度得到显著提高,且经过调整系数R调整后的不变权组合预测模型最优。展开更多
This study deals with two novels of Eduar AI-Kharrat： Rama wal-Tinnin （Rama and the Dragon, 1979） and al-Zaman al-Akhar （The Other Time, 1985）. The text in both novels is of the pluralist, polyphonic and modernis...This study deals with two novels of Eduar AI-Kharrat： Rama wal-Tinnin （Rama and the Dragon, 1979） and al-Zaman al-Akhar （The Other Time, 1985）. The text in both novels is of the pluralist, polyphonic and modernistic type and the real and the imaginary are juxtaposed. The narrative imitates at its diverse levels the internal conflict, argument, and uncertainty of the protagonist Michael, who finally finds his self-realization in an imaginary time, ＂the other time＂, which is also the title of one of the novels. The present study focuses on the transformation and alternation of the perspectives and the narrative vision through the destruction of the narrator＇s identity and the text itself, the analysis of the narrative shift between the first and third person, the fragmentation of the self, the ambiguity of the signs, the severity of the crisis, and the psychological conflict at its diverse levels and multiplicities. Toward this plurality and shift, it is necessary to systematically depend upon what the theories of Bakhtin and Genette have to offer in order to cover the narrative levels and multiple voices prevailing in the texts.展开更多
The literature on disasters mainly focuses on natural disasters and looks at their coverage by the media. The paper argues that armed conflicts are also disasters and that Western relief agencies intervening in natura...The literature on disasters mainly focuses on natural disasters and looks at their coverage by the media. The paper argues that armed conflicts are also disasters and that Western relief agencies intervening in natural disasters and conflict are also proactive communicators. Taking a different approach from much of the available research, it explores agencies＇ communication work in these two types of crises and analyses the differences, challenges and dilemmas that they face in communicating their humanitarianism. It outlines the distinguished inherent characteristics of natural disasters and conflicts, and examines their impact on the understanding of the crises, the perception of affected populations, and the implementation of agencies＇ actions. It also investigates how, in turn, all these features influence agencies＇ communication practices that in natural disasters emergencies and conflict-related crises perform a different role and show different parameters. In this sense, the paper distinguishes between ＂humanitarian communication＂ to refer to the former, and ＂humanitarian advocacy＂ to refer to the latter. The paper briefly explores the operational challenges engendered by the contested interpretations of humanitarian advocacy, shows that the use of the parameters of humanitarian communication in conflict-related crises to overcome these problems caused additional concern, and presents two forms of humanitarian advocacy engendering less challenges and dilemmas.展开更多
The significance of biodiversity conservation has transformed from a concern for conservation of endangered species and landscapes into an increasingly diverse yet comprehensive set of conservation, social and economi...The significance of biodiversity conservation has transformed from a concern for conservation of endangered species and landscapes into an increasingly diverse yet comprehensive set of conservation, social and economic development goals. Community conservancy, a powerful extension of the PA system, has great potential to support biodiversity conservation, poverty eradication and conflict mitigation. Based on its policy environment and development characteristics, Kenya has implemented community conservation practices, and established over 160 conservancies across the country in the past decades. This paper reviews the development and experiences of community conservancies, discusses how they have been implemented in Kenya, and looks at the management paradigm, efficacy and challenges to help better understand the community conservancy approach. The development trajectory and lessons these conservancies have to offer can contribute to the sustainable utilization of natural resources and the enhancement of community wellbeing in Kenya and other countries alike.展开更多
Investigating the influence of international events on global maritime networks is a challenging task that must comprehensively incorporate geographical, political, and maritime sciences. Understanding global maritime...Investigating the influence of international events on global maritime networks is a challenging task that must comprehensively incorporate geographical, political, and maritime sciences. Understanding global maritime network dynamics is an initial and critical step in this investigation. This study proposes an automatic identification system(AIS)-based approach to understanding maritime network dynamics before and after international events. In this approach, a spatiotemporal modeling method is introduced to measure the similarity in shipping trends before and after international events. Then, a spatiotemporal analytic framework is proposed to understand the maritime network dynamics by grouping similar situation, and assessing possible indirect effects within a network. Finally, three case studies of international events, military conflict, lifted economic sanctions, and government elections, were used to investigate the observed network dynamics possibly affected by international events. The results indicate that container, tanker, and bulk shipping between India and its connected countries all declined more than 69% after military conflicts between India and Pakistan in August 2015. Tanker shipping between Iran and the United Arab Emirates increased 51% after economic sanctions on Iran were lifted. Container shipping between Sri Lanka and Singapore, Malaysia, and India increased more than 74% after the general election in Sri Lanka. These investigations demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach in assessing the possible effects of international events on maritime network dynamics.展开更多
文摘针对传统组合预测模型大多是通过建立单一准则方程进行优化,而没有更好地考虑各单一模型之间互支持信息带来的不确定性问题,建立基于多准则的组合预测模型权重确定算法。首先,通过建立区间数模型构建样本区间距离并进行相关折算归一化生成样本的基本概率分布BPA(basic probability assignment),作为单一预测模型的初级权重;然后,通过对D-S证据理论进行改进,建立证据可信度、证据精度和证据自冲突系数3个准则分别用于评价单一模型自身精度及其之间互相支持信息,通过对3个准则排序得到综合排序值作为单一模型初级权重的权重调整系数;最后,综合多时刻数据归一化后确定单一模型的最终权重用于组合预测。研究结果表明:经过权重调整后的组合预测精度得到显著提高,且经过调整系数R调整后的不变权组合预测模型最优。
文摘This study deals with two novels of Eduar AI-Kharrat： Rama wal-Tinnin （Rama and the Dragon, 1979） and al-Zaman al-Akhar （The Other Time, 1985）. The text in both novels is of the pluralist, polyphonic and modernistic type and the real and the imaginary are juxtaposed. The narrative imitates at its diverse levels the internal conflict, argument, and uncertainty of the protagonist Michael, who finally finds his self-realization in an imaginary time, ＂the other time＂, which is also the title of one of the novels. The present study focuses on the transformation and alternation of the perspectives and the narrative vision through the destruction of the narrator＇s identity and the text itself, the analysis of the narrative shift between the first and third person, the fragmentation of the self, the ambiguity of the signs, the severity of the crisis, and the psychological conflict at its diverse levels and multiplicities. Toward this plurality and shift, it is necessary to systematically depend upon what the theories of Bakhtin and Genette have to offer in order to cover the narrative levels and multiple voices prevailing in the texts.
文摘The literature on disasters mainly focuses on natural disasters and looks at their coverage by the media. The paper argues that armed conflicts are also disasters and that Western relief agencies intervening in natural disasters and conflict are also proactive communicators. Taking a different approach from much of the available research, it explores agencies＇ communication work in these two types of crises and analyses the differences, challenges and dilemmas that they face in communicating their humanitarianism. It outlines the distinguished inherent characteristics of natural disasters and conflicts, and examines their impact on the understanding of the crises, the perception of affected populations, and the implementation of agencies＇ actions. It also investigates how, in turn, all these features influence agencies＇ communication practices that in natural disasters emergencies and conflict-related crises perform a different role and show different parameters. In this sense, the paper distinguishes between ＂humanitarian communication＂ to refer to the former, and ＂humanitarian advocacy＂ to refer to the latter. The paper briefly explores the operational challenges engendered by the contested interpretations of humanitarian advocacy, shows that the use of the parameters of humanitarian communication in conflict-related crises to overcome these problems caused additional concern, and presents two forms of humanitarian advocacy engendering less challenges and dilemmas.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(3136114036041401068)
文摘The significance of biodiversity conservation has transformed from a concern for conservation of endangered species and landscapes into an increasingly diverse yet comprehensive set of conservation, social and economic development goals. Community conservancy, a powerful extension of the PA system, has great potential to support biodiversity conservation, poverty eradication and conflict mitigation. Based on its policy environment and development characteristics, Kenya has implemented community conservation practices, and established over 160 conservancies across the country in the past decades. This paper reviews the development and experiences of community conservancies, discusses how they have been implemented in Kenya, and looks at the management paradigm, efficacy and challenges to help better understand the community conservancy approach. The development trajectory and lessons these conservancies have to offer can contribute to the sustainable utilization of natural resources and the enhancement of community wellbeing in Kenya and other countries alike.
基金Key Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,No.ZDRW-ZS-2016-6-3The National Key Research and Development Program of China,No.2017YFB0503802+1 种基金National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.40971233,No.41771473LIESMARS Special Research Funding
文摘Investigating the influence of international events on global maritime networks is a challenging task that must comprehensively incorporate geographical, political, and maritime sciences. Understanding global maritime network dynamics is an initial and critical step in this investigation. This study proposes an automatic identification system(AIS)-based approach to understanding maritime network dynamics before and after international events. In this approach, a spatiotemporal modeling method is introduced to measure the similarity in shipping trends before and after international events. Then, a spatiotemporal analytic framework is proposed to understand the maritime network dynamics by grouping similar situation, and assessing possible indirect effects within a network. Finally, three case studies of international events, military conflict, lifted economic sanctions, and government elections, were used to investigate the observed network dynamics possibly affected by international events. The results indicate that container, tanker, and bulk shipping between India and its connected countries all declined more than 69% after military conflicts between India and Pakistan in August 2015. Tanker shipping between Iran and the United Arab Emirates increased 51% after economic sanctions on Iran were lifted. Container shipping between Sri Lanka and Singapore, Malaysia, and India increased more than 74% after the general election in Sri Lanka. These investigations demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed approach in assessing the possible effects of international events on maritime network dynamics.
