This paper computed the newest impact solutions of the potentially dangerous asteroid （99942） Apophis based on 4,138 optical observations from March 15.10789 UTC （Universal Time Coordinated）, 2004 to February 28.0...This paper computed the newest impact solutions of the potentially dangerous asteroid （99942） Apophis based on 4,138 optical observations from March 15.10789 UTC （Universal Time Coordinated）, 2004 to February 28.089569 UTC, 2014 and 20 radar observations from January 27, 2005 through March 15, 2013, as of June 20, 2014. Using the freely available the OrbFit software Package, this paper followed its orbit forward in the searching for close approaches with the Earth and possible impacts up to year 2116. With the different A2 non-gravitational parameter in the motion of the asteroid （99942） Apophis, this paper computed possible impact solutions using the JPL DE405 （Jet Propulsion Laboratory Development Ephemeris） and 25 additional massive perturbed asteroids. Additionally, this paper used weighing and selection methods adopted in the OrbFit software as prepared by the NEODyS （Near Earth Objects--Dynamical Side） Team. Moreover, this paper used method of computing the orbit of Apophis taking into account star catalog debiasing and an error model with assumed astrometric errors RMS （root mean square）, deduced from the observational material of the given observatories. JPL＇s Sentry and NEODyS＇s CLOMMON2, two automatic monitoring systems routinely scanning for possible impacts in the next hundred years. Only for several dangerous asteroids presented results are computed with the non-gravitational parameters. This paper detected possible impacts of the asteroid （99942） Apophis only with the non-gravitational parameter, A2 〉 0. It was appeared that impacts in 2068, 2087, 2105 and in 2111 were possible only when Apophis rotated in prograde direction.展开更多
文摘This paper computed the newest impact solutions of the potentially dangerous asteroid （99942） Apophis based on 4,138 optical observations from March 15.10789 UTC （Universal Time Coordinated）, 2004 to February 28.089569 UTC, 2014 and 20 radar observations from January 27, 2005 through March 15, 2013, as of June 20, 2014. Using the freely available the OrbFit software Package, this paper followed its orbit forward in the searching for close approaches with the Earth and possible impacts up to year 2116. With the different A2 non-gravitational parameter in the motion of the asteroid （99942） Apophis, this paper computed possible impact solutions using the JPL DE405 （Jet Propulsion Laboratory Development Ephemeris） and 25 additional massive perturbed asteroids. Additionally, this paper used weighing and selection methods adopted in the OrbFit software as prepared by the NEODyS （Near Earth Objects--Dynamical Side） Team. Moreover, this paper used method of computing the orbit of Apophis taking into account star catalog debiasing and an error model with assumed astrometric errors RMS （root mean square）, deduced from the observational material of the given observatories. JPL＇s Sentry and NEODyS＇s CLOMMON2, two automatic monitoring systems routinely scanning for possible impacts in the next hundred years. Only for several dangerous asteroids presented results are computed with the non-gravitational parameters. This paper detected possible impacts of the asteroid （99942） Apophis only with the non-gravitational parameter, A2 〉 0. It was appeared that impacts in 2068, 2087, 2105 and in 2111 were possible only when Apophis rotated in prograde direction.
