目的探讨昼夜温差(diurnal temperature range,DTR)影响慢性肾脏病(chronic kidney diseases,CKD)日住院人次的影响。方法收集2019年1月1日至2020年12月31日乌鲁木齐市4所三甲医院、4所二甲医院、1所一甲医院CKD日住院人次数据,同期气...目的探讨昼夜温差(diurnal temperature range,DTR)影响慢性肾脏病(chronic kidney diseases,CKD)日住院人次的影响。方法收集2019年1月1日至2020年12月31日乌鲁木齐市4所三甲医院、4所二甲医院、1所一甲医院CKD日住院人次数据,同期气象及污染物数据来自于乌鲁木齐市主城区的6个国控监测点,采用分布滞后非线性模型,控制星期几效应、假期效应、长期时间趋势及其它因素,分析DTR与CKD日住院人次的关系。结果CKD日住院人次与DTR(滞后0~21 d)的暴露-反应曲线呈“N”形,CKD患者住院风险随DTR的升高呈先上升后下降趋势。低度和高度DTR对CKD患者住院的影响存在一定的滞后效应,中度DTR对住院影响较小;DTR=5℃时,单日效应出现在第3天[RR=1.081,95%CI(1.020,1.145),P<0.05],最大效应出现在第21天[RR=1.090,95%CI(1.014,1.173),P<0.05];高度DTR=14℃(P_(95))时,单日效应出现在第4天[RR=1.086,95%CI(1.007,1.172),P<0.05],最大效应出现在第5天[RR=1.089,95%CI(1.009,1.176),P<0.05],累积滞后均暂未发现有统计学差异。男性和年龄<65岁的CKD患者更易受到DTR的影响,寒冷季节和四季更替时DTR变化对CKD患者住院的影响更大。结论男性与<65岁CKD患者更易受到DTR的影响,在寒冷季节和四季交替DTR变化时更应重点保护易感人群免受DTR的影响。展开更多
设随机序列Y={Yn,n∈N},N={0,±1,±2,…}满足下列线性模型 Yn=sum from j=1 to p(αieinλj)+Xn,n∈N其中αj,λj,1≤j≤p为确定的常数,X={Xn,n∈N}为实平稳序列。这是时间序列分析的理论和应用中经常讨论的一种模型。它表明...设随机序列Y={Yn,n∈N},N={0,±1,±2,…}满足下列线性模型 Yn=sum from j=1 to p(αieinλj)+Xn,n∈N其中αj,λj,1≤j≤p为确定的常数,X={Xn,n∈N}为实平稳序列。这是时间序列分析的理论和应用中经常讨论的一种模型。它表明被观察到的Yn是由决定性的周期变化项sum from j=1 to p(αieinλj)和随机干扰Xn迭加而成的。从统计分析的角度来考虑,首先需要解决的是如何根据观察到的Y的现实来估计αj,λj,p及平稳序列X的统计特征。其中关于隐蔽周期λj,1≤j≤p的估计问题,[1]中已提出了δ-隔离周期图极大估计的方法。展开更多
For the sustainable development and attention on the environment and energy, the study on the energy effective is important to the theory and the practice. The regional characters of china 31 provincial economic devel...For the sustainable development and attention on the environment and energy, the study on the energy effective is important to the theory and the practice. The regional characters of china 31 provincial economic development and energy effective were analyzed through the spatial statistical model and Moran I index to Panel Data, It is concluded that the provincial regional economic development and energy effective have obvious spatial correlation and cluster in the geographical space, the latter is influenced by its own economic development and the energy effective of neighbor region, so traditional ignoring the point will lead to deviation of model design and the deflection of the result.展开更多
This paper mainly deals with the Bayesian statistical inference theory on the VAR(p) forecasting model based on the parameters’ Minnesota conjugate prior distribution,including the prior distribution’s structure, th...This paper mainly deals with the Bayesian statistical inference theory on the VAR(p) forecasting model based on the parameters’ Minnesota conjugate prior distribution,including the prior distribution’s structure, the parameters’ posterior distribution, and compares the forecasting accuracy of AR,VAR and BVAR model.展开更多
文摘设随机序列Y={Yn,n∈N},N={0,±1,±2,…}满足下列线性模型 Yn=sum from j=1 to p(αieinλj)+Xn,n∈N其中αj,λj,1≤j≤p为确定的常数,X={Xn,n∈N}为实平稳序列。这是时间序列分析的理论和应用中经常讨论的一种模型。它表明被观察到的Yn是由决定性的周期变化项sum from j=1 to p(αieinλj)和随机干扰Xn迭加而成的。从统计分析的角度来考虑,首先需要解决的是如何根据观察到的Y的现实来估计αj,λj,p及平稳序列X的统计特征。其中关于隐蔽周期λj,1≤j≤p的估计问题,[1]中已提出了δ-隔离周期图极大估计的方法。
文摘For the sustainable development and attention on the environment and energy, the study on the energy effective is important to the theory and the practice. The regional characters of china 31 provincial economic development and energy effective were analyzed through the spatial statistical model and Moran I index to Panel Data, It is concluded that the provincial regional economic development and energy effective have obvious spatial correlation and cluster in the geographical space, the latter is influenced by its own economic development and the energy effective of neighbor region, so traditional ignoring the point will lead to deviation of model design and the deflection of the result.
文摘This paper mainly deals with the Bayesian statistical inference theory on the VAR(p) forecasting model based on the parameters’ Minnesota conjugate prior distribution,including the prior distribution’s structure, the parameters’ posterior distribution, and compares the forecasting accuracy of AR,VAR and BVAR model.
