东海西北部中层冷水垂直热结构数值预报方法研究 Ⅰ.一维数值预报模式

文中,以水温垂直剖面的自模性将其由T-Z分布变为θ-η剖面为基础,在考虑海面加热,忽略热平流效应和来自海底的热通量情况下,将海洋分为4层,并在各层内利用其自模函数的积分趋于常量的特性,对引入自模函数的热传导方程进行推导运算,导出描述含中层冷水垂直热结构7个特征量的闭合方程组.当解得这些特征量之后,代入含有自模函数的温度表达式,即获得预报的整个水温剖面.为了检验模式的功能,我们利用东海西北部海域中27个测站,以5月5日和5月10日实测的特征量作为初值,分别试报了5月10日和5月15日的特征量及水温剖面.试报的结果表明:试报特征值和温度剖面与其实测值之间的平均绝对误差,特征温度小于或等于0.23℃,特征深度小于或等于1.18m,而水温剖面小于或等于0.20℃.由此可见,试报的效果是令人满意的.

黄、渤海盐度准三维数值预报模式

黄、渤海盐度的垂直结构具有典型的自模性,而其水平分布又受平流、水平扩散效应及径流等因素的影响。本文根据黄、渤海实测资料拟合了盐度垂直剖面的自模函数,并结合描述表、底层盐度及上均匀层厚度这三个特征量水平分布的方程,形成给出盐度三维结构的准三维模式。在模式中,综合考虑了海面风和热输入的强迫作用以及流场的平流、侧向混和及底层混和影响因素,同时还考虑了径流、蒸发及降水的作用,较客观地反映了盐度的三维分布及其变化的物理过程。试报结果分析表明,模式的功能较好,结果令人满意。

黄海、渤海盐度准三维数值预报模式

黄海、渤海盐度的垂直结构具有典型的自模性，而其水平分布又受平流、水平扩散效应及径流等因素的影响。本文根据黄海、渤海实测资料拟合了盐度垂直剖面的自模函数，并结合描述表、底层盐度及上均匀层厚度这３个特征量水平分布的方程，给出盐度三维结构的准三维模式。在模式中，综合考虑了海面风和热输入的强迫作用以及流场的平流、侧向混合及底层混合的影响因素，同时还考虑了径流、蒸发及降水的作用，较客观地反映了盐度的三维分布及其变化的物理过程。试报结果分析表明，模式的功能较好，结果令人满意。

New Structural Self-Organizing Fuzzy CMAC with Basis Functions

To improve the nonlinear approximating ability of cerebellar model articulation controller(CMAC), by introducing the Gauss basis functions and the similarity measure based addressing scheme, a new kind of fuzzy CMAC with Gauss basis functions(GFCMAC) was presented. Moreover, based upon the improvement of the self organizing feature map algorithm of Kohonen, the structural self organizing algorithm for GFCMAC(SOGFCMAC) was proposed. Simulation results show that adopting the Gauss basis functions and fuzzy techniques can remarkably improve the nonlinear approximating capacity of CMAC. Compared with the traditional CMAC,CMAC with general basis functions and fuzzy CMAC(FCMAC), SOGFCMAC has the obvious advantages in the aspects of the convergent speed, approximating accuracy and structural self organizing.

MODEL REFERENCE ADAPTIVE CONTROL BASED ON NONLINEAR COMPENSATION FOR TURBOFAN ENGINE

The design of a turbofan rotor speed control system, using model reference adaptive control（MRAC） method with input and output measurements, is discussed for the purpose of practical application. The nonlinear compensator based on functional link neural network is used to deal with the engine nonlinearity and the hardware-in-loop simulation is also developed. The results show that the nonlinear MRAC controller has the adequate performance of compensating and adapting nonlinearity arising from the change of engine state or working environment. Such feature demonstrates potential practical applications of MRAC for aeroengine control system.

Direct adaptive fuzzy control based on integral-type Lyapunov function

A new scheme of direct adaptive fuzzy controller for a class of nonlinear systems with unknown triangular control gain structure is proposed. The design is based on the principle of sliding mode control and the approximation capability of the first type fuzzy systems. By introducing integral-type Lyapunov function and adopting the adaptive compensation term of optimal approximation error, the closed-loop control system is proved to be globally stable, with tracking error converging to zero. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the approach.

Approximation to NLAR(p) with Wavelet Neural Networks

Recently, wavelet neural networks have become a popular tool for non-linear functional approximation. Wavelet neural networks, which basis functions are orthonormal scalling functions, are more suitable in approximating to function. Based on it, approximating to NLAR(p) with wavelet neural networks is studied.

Modeling of rough surfaces with given roughness parameters

Modeling of rough surfaces with given roughness parameters is studied,where surfaces with Gaussian height distribution and exponential auto-correlation function(ACF) are concerned.A large number of micro topography samples are randomly generated first using the rough surface simulation method with FFT.Then roughness parameters of the simulated roughness profiles are calculated according to parameter definition,and the relationship between roughness parameters and statistical distribution parameters is investigated.The effects of high-pass filtering with different cut-off lengths on the relationship are analyzed.Subsequently,computing formulae of roughness parameters based on standard deviation and correlation length are constructed with mathematical regression method.The constructed formulae are tested with measured data of actual topographies,and the influences of auto-correlation variations at different lag lengths on the change of roughness parameter are discussed.The constructed computing formulae provide an approach to active modeling of rough surfaces with given roughness parameters.

Modeling of Rocks with Spatial Distributed Fractures by Random Medium Theory

By using the spectrum expanding theory of random processes and Hudson's crack model,we developed a random medium model for rocks with spatial random distributed number density of cracks. This model could connect the micro-parameters of the cracks with the macro- mechanical properties, and can be effectively applied to model the real inhomogeneous medium. Numerical example indicates that the random distribution characters could be different for different elastic constants under the same random distribution of number density of cracks. By changing the value of the autocorrelation length pair, it is possible to model the difference of the distribution in the two coordinate directions. Numerical modeling results for seismic wave propagating in rocks with random distributed fractures using a staggered high-order finite-difference (SHOFD) are also presented.

Electromagnetic Properties of S11 States in a Light Cone Quark Model

Using relativistic spin-flavor wave functions of a Lorentz-covariant light cone quark model, we calculate the electromagnetic form factors of two S11 resonances, N（1535） and N（1650）, and the helicity amplitudes A1/2 and S1/2 for electroexcitation of the S11 resonances from the nucleon. The electromagnetic form factors of these S11 resonances are found to be similar to those of the nucleon in shape, while the charge form factor of neutral N（1650） is nearly zero. The relative peak height of the S11 charge form factors is controlled by the mixing angle common to both resonance wave functions. As in most quark models, there is a systematic overestimate of A1/2 in both N（1535） and N（1650） cases at the photon point. A sizeable S1/2 for all cases is produced as suggested by experiments.

Using texture synthesis in fractal pattern design

Traditional fractal pattern design has some disadvantages such as inability to effectively reflect the characteristics of real scenery and texture. We propose a novel pattern design technique combining fractal geometry and image texture synthesis to solve these problems. We have improved Wei and Levoy (2000)’s texture synthesis algorithm by first using two-dimensional autocorrelation function to analyze the structure and distribution of textures, and then determining the size of L neighborhood. Several special fractal sets were adopted and HSL (Hue, Saturation, and Light) color space was chosen. The fractal structure was used to manipulate the texture synthesis in HSL color space where the pattern’s color can be adjusted conveniently. Experiments showed that patterns with different styles and different color characteristics can be more efficiently generated using the new technique.

A new robust fuzzy method for unmanned flying vehicle control

A new general robust fuzzy approach was presented to control the position and the attitude of unmanned flying vehicles(UFVs). Control of these vehicles was challenging due to their nonlinear underactuated behaviors. The proposed control system combined great advantages of generalized indirect adaptive sliding mode control(IASMC) and fuzzy control for the UFVs. An on-line adaptive tuning algorithm based on Lyapunov function and Barbalat lemma was designed, thus the stability of the system can be guaranteed. The chattering phenomenon in the sliding mode control was reduced and the steady error was also alleviated. The numerical results, for an underactuated quadcopter and a high speed underwater vehicle as case studies, indicate that the presented adaptive design of fuzzy sliding mode controller performs robustly in the presence of sensor noise and external disturbances. In addition, online unknown parameter estimation of the UFVs, such as ground effect and planing force especially in the cases with the Gaussian sensor noise with zero mean and standard deviation of 0.5 m and 0.1 rad and external disturbances with amplitude of 0.1 m/s2 and frequency of 0.2 Hz, is one of the advantages of this method. These estimated parameters are then used in the controller to improve the trajectory tracking performance.

Collective Hamiltonian for Multi-O（4） Model

The collective Bamiltonian up to the fourth order for multi-O（4） model is derived based on the self-consistent collective-coordinate （SCC） method, which is formulated in the framework of the time-dependent Hartree-Bogoliubov （TDHB） theory. The validity of the collective Hamiltonian is checked in the two special cases of the multi-O（4） model： the case where the number of the shells is equal to one （a single j-shell case）, and the case where the Hartree-Bogoliubov equilibrium point is spherical （the spherical case）. The collective Hamiltonian constitutes a good starting point to study nuclear shape coexistence.

Exact Generator and its High Order Expansions in Time-Convolutionless Generalized Master Equation:Applications to Spin-Boson Model and Exictation Energy Transfer

The time-convolutionless （TCL） quantum master equation provides a powerful tool to simulate reduced dynanfics of a quantum system coupled to a bath. The key quantity ill the TCL master equation is the so-called kernel or generator, which describes eflhcts of the bath degrees of freedom. Since the exact TCL generators are usually hard to calculate analytically, most applications of the TCL generalized master equation have relied on approximate generators using second and fourth order perturbative expansions. By using the hierarchical equation of motion （HEOM） and extended HEOM methods, we present a new approach to calculating the exact TCL generator and its high order perturbative expansions. The new approach is applied to the spin-boson model with diflhrent sets of parameters, to investigate the convergence of the high order expansiolls of the TCL generator. We also discuss circumstances where the exact TCL generator becomes singular for the spin-boson model, and a model of excitation energy transfer in the Fenna-Matthews-Olson complex.

Fuzzy adaptive genetic algorithm based on auto-regulating fuzzy rules

There are defects such as the low convergence rate and premature phenomenon on the performance of simple genetic algorithms （SGA） as the values of crossover probability （Pc） and mutation probability （Pro） are fixed. To solve the problems, the fuzzy control method and the genetic algorithms were systematically integrated to create a kind of improved fuzzy adaptive genetic algorithm （FAGA） based on the auto-regulating fuzzy rules （ARFR-FAGA）. By using the fuzzy control method, the values of Pc and Pm were adjusted according to the evolutional process, and the fuzzy rules were optimized by another genetic algorithm. Experimental results in solving the function optimization problems demonstrate that the convergence rate and solution quality of ARFR-FAGA exceed those of SGA, AGA and fuzzy adaptive genetic algorithm based on expertise （EFAGA） obviously in the global search.

Wavelets as Basis Functions in the Adaptation＇s Methods： Author＇s Model for Forecasting Short-Term

The aim of this article is to present author＇s application of wavelets to predict short-term macroeconomic indicators Proposed to predict short-term time series （in particular for predicting macroeconomic indicators）, proprietary model is based on wavelet analysis with Haar wavelets, Daubechies wavelets, and adaptive models; they are the trend crawling model and alignment exponential model. Adaptive models have been modified through the introduction of wavelet function and combined into a single forecast model. Obtained from conducted research results, it shows the model an effective instrument to predict the short-term.

Estimation of Number Of Small Cattle Through ARIMA Models in Turkey

In this study, the number of sheep and goats in Turkey were analysed by time series analysis method, and the number of great cattle for next years predicted through the most appropriate time series model.Time series was formed using the data on the number of sheep and goats belonging to the period between 1930 and 2014 in Turkey It was determined through autocorrelation function graphic that the series weren＇t stationary at first, but they became stationary after their first difference were calculated. A stagnancy test was performed through extended Dickey-Fuller test. So as to determine the suitability of the model, it was reviewed if autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation graphs were white noise series and also the results of Box-Ljung test were reviwed. Through the ＂tested models, the model estimations, of which parameter estimates were significant and Akaike information criterion （AIC） was the smallest, were performed. The most appropriate model in terms of both the number of sheep and goats is first-level integrated moving average model stated as ARIMA（0,1,1）. In this model, it was estimated that there would be an increase in the number of sheep and goats in Turkey between the years of 2015 and 2020, however, the increase in the number of sheep would be more than the increase in the number of goats.

A Lower Bound on Longitudinal Structure Function at Small x from a Self-Similarity Based Model of Proton

Self-similarity based model of proton structure function at small x was reported in the literature sometime back. The phenomenological validity of the model is in the kinematical region 6.2 × 10-7 ≤ x ≤ 10-2 and 0.045 ≤ Q2 ≤ 120 GeV2. We use momentum sum rule to pin down the corresponding self-similarity-based gluon distribution function valid in the same kinematical region. The model is then used to compute bound on the longitudinal structure function FL（X, Q2） for A1tarelli-Martinelli equation in QCD and is compared with the recent HERA data.

A Fuzzy Negotiation Model of E-commerce

We usually decide to accept or reject the offer based on the utility function in the traditional automatic negotiation of E-commerce so that we reject the offers whose utility is lower than a specified value. Here we evaluate the acceptability based on the fuzzy set theory and the membership function. Since different issues have different effect on the negotiators, we state the combined concession in the multi-issue negotiation for the negotiators. We put forward a more practical negotiation model than the traditional negotiation model and give an example of its application in E-commerce.