Escalation of commitment has been linked to losses in information systems （IS） projects. Understanding the nature and the rationality of escalation allows the firm to promote optimal project management practices. Th...Escalation of commitment has been linked to losses in information systems （IS） projects. Understanding the nature and the rationality of escalation allows the firm to promote optimal project management practices. This study takes an inter-disciplinary approach and draws on research from economics and management to create a model of irrational escalation and a model of rational escalation. The forces that contribute to irrational escalation include the responsibility of the same manager for both the project selection and project continuation decisions that create proneness to self-justification, the potential for negative framing of decision options due to large sunk costs, the proximity of project completion and the presence of organizational inertia. Identifying these irrational escalation factors helps design appropriate de-escalation techniques. The rational escalation model draws on the real option theory and the bandit process theory to identify conditions when project continuation is justified by the value of information and the value of flexibility that the firm receives from continuing the project.展开更多
The importance attached to the need for sustainable development in the coastal areas is increasing. A management plan is required to minimize the environmental destruction resulting from the complexity of the property...The importance attached to the need for sustainable development in the coastal areas is increasing. A management plan is required to minimize the environmental destruction resulting from the complexity of the property in coastal areas, of human activities and of natural systems and to utilize the coastal resources effectively. The utilization of coasts, besides becoming very important particularly in views of tourism, has faced pressures caused by huge. These areas are mostly self-contradictory demands for the environmental protection. The project is an EU Life Long Learning Programme Project and the project duration is 24 months. The aim of the CoastLearn in Black Sea （CLBS） is to mobilize the human resources in the tourism and coastal management sector in Black Sea in general and notably Sinop, Varna and Constanta by raising awareness among the local decision making mechanisms of the integrated coastal zone management in order to encourage people to utilize the coastal resources in a coherent and balanced way.展开更多
Apparent biases in decision making by animals, including humans, seem to present an evolutionary puzzle, since one would expect decisions based on biased （unrealistic） information to be suboptimal. Although cognitiv...Apparent biases in decision making by animals, including humans, seem to present an evolutionary puzzle, since one would expect decisions based on biased （unrealistic） information to be suboptimal. Although cognitive biases are hard to diag- nose in real animals （Marshall et al., 2013b）, we investigate Trivers＇ proposal that individuals should self-deceive first in order to better deceive others （Trivers, 2011）. Although this proposal has been scrutinized extensively （Bandura et al., 2011） it has not been formally modelled. We present the first model designed to investigate Trivers＇ proposal. We introduce an extension to a re- cent model of the evolution of self-deception （Johnson and Fowler, 2011）. In the extended model individuals make decisions by taking directly into account the benefits and costs of each outcome and by choosing the course of action that can be estimated as the best with the information available. It is shown that in certain circumstances self-deceiving decision-makers are the most evolutionarily successful, even when there is no deception between these. In a further extension of this model individuals addi- tionally exhibit deception biases and Trivers＇ premise （that effective deception is less physiologically costly with the aid of self-deception） is incorporated. It is shown that under Trivers＇ hypothesis natural selection favors individuals that self-deceive as they deceive others .展开更多
文摘Escalation of commitment has been linked to losses in information systems （IS） projects. Understanding the nature and the rationality of escalation allows the firm to promote optimal project management practices. This study takes an inter-disciplinary approach and draws on research from economics and management to create a model of irrational escalation and a model of rational escalation. The forces that contribute to irrational escalation include the responsibility of the same manager for both the project selection and project continuation decisions that create proneness to self-justification, the potential for negative framing of decision options due to large sunk costs, the proximity of project completion and the presence of organizational inertia. Identifying these irrational escalation factors helps design appropriate de-escalation techniques. The rational escalation model draws on the real option theory and the bandit process theory to identify conditions when project continuation is justified by the value of information and the value of flexibility that the firm receives from continuing the project.
文摘The importance attached to the need for sustainable development in the coastal areas is increasing. A management plan is required to minimize the environmental destruction resulting from the complexity of the property in coastal areas, of human activities and of natural systems and to utilize the coastal resources effectively. The utilization of coasts, besides becoming very important particularly in views of tourism, has faced pressures caused by huge. These areas are mostly self-contradictory demands for the environmental protection. The project is an EU Life Long Learning Programme Project and the project duration is 24 months. The aim of the CoastLearn in Black Sea （CLBS） is to mobilize the human resources in the tourism and coastal management sector in Black Sea in general and notably Sinop, Varna and Constanta by raising awareness among the local decision making mechanisms of the integrated coastal zone management in order to encourage people to utilize the coastal resources in a coherent and balanced way.
文摘Apparent biases in decision making by animals, including humans, seem to present an evolutionary puzzle, since one would expect decisions based on biased （unrealistic） information to be suboptimal. Although cognitive biases are hard to diag- nose in real animals （Marshall et al., 2013b）, we investigate Trivers＇ proposal that individuals should self-deceive first in order to better deceive others （Trivers, 2011）. Although this proposal has been scrutinized extensively （Bandura et al., 2011） it has not been formally modelled. We present the first model designed to investigate Trivers＇ proposal. We introduce an extension to a re- cent model of the evolution of self-deception （Johnson and Fowler, 2011）. In the extended model individuals make decisions by taking directly into account the benefits and costs of each outcome and by choosing the course of action that can be estimated as the best with the information available. It is shown that in certain circumstances self-deceiving decision-makers are the most evolutionarily successful, even when there is no deception between these. In a further extension of this model individuals addi- tionally exhibit deception biases and Trivers＇ premise （that effective deception is less physiologically costly with the aid of self-deception） is incorporated. It is shown that under Trivers＇ hypothesis natural selection favors individuals that self-deceive as they deceive others .
