自然性灾害天气预报预警和服务分析

自然性灾害天气问题对人们的生产生活、出行安全乃至生命财产均造成一定影响,针对该问题的预警与服务始终是气象部门工作的重点。在新时期,气象部门除了负责基本的天气监测、收集、调查、预警外,还应用各项新技术进行风险评估,并予以针对性的服务技术支持,加强预报预警与服务之间的联动。本文列举集中自然性灾害天气类型,并分析其所应用的技术,同时应用应急制图和信息收集等服务类技术,进一步提升自然灾害预警与治理的综合能力,有效避免经济损失,提升公共服务效能,以供参考。

环境应激及其应对

心理学对应激的研究已扩展到社会和环境领域。由于现代技术工具的进步和社会生活的相互依赖,人和环境的关系、人和人的关系发生了巨大的变化。环境(自然的和社会的)不仅仅是人类生存和生活的场所,而且是人类必须面对的应激源,自然的、技术的、社会的灾难和事件对人的心理、生理和行为构成压力。心理学家对应激提出了多种解释,个体则必须依靠各种应对资源,采取有效应对策略,发展成熟的应对风格,对环境应激刺激作出适当反应。

Prediction of the Hualian Earthquakes in Taiwan and an Extended Discussion on the Method of Commensurability

The method of commensurability was used by the authors to predict the great earthquake of magnitude 7.5 that occurred on March 31,2002 in Taiwan 70km away from Hualian. Analyzing the earthquakes of magnitude≥7.0 which occurred in the Hualian area of Taiwan within the 20th century, the authors discovered that the occurrences of the earthquakes are commensurable. The earthquakes of magnitude 7.6 which occurred in Hualian of Taiwan, on September 20th, 1999 and of magnitude 7.5 which occurred 70 km away from Hualian, on March 31th, 2002 appeared at the commensurable point of K=2 and the period times the golden section, respectively. An extended discussion is carried out on the method of commensurability and its implied physical significance, especially on the contribution of the commensurable periodic extension made by Prof. Weng Wenbo.

Cyclone and Tsunami Hazards in the Arabian Sea-A Numerical Modelling Case Study by Royal HaskoningDHV

Significant loss of life and damage to properties, ecosystems and marine facilities occur due to various natural hazards such as cyclones and tsunamis. Royal HaskoningDHV has developed regional hydrodynamic and wave models covering the Northern Arabian Sea to address these issues. Cyclone modelling was carried out on 11 major cyclones since 1945 and the tsunami modelling on an earthquake along the Makran Fault Line in 1945. Sample results from these modelling studies are presented in this paper. The methodology described in this article for modelling cyclones and tsunamis in the Arabian Sea could be applied to simulate these natural hazards at other sites around the world.

Measuring Social Vulnerability to Natural Hazards in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region,China

Social vulnerability in this study represents the differences between the capacity to cope with natural hazards and disaster losses suffered within and between places.The assessment of social vulnerability has been recognized as a critical step in understanding natural hazard risks and enhancing effective response capabilities.This article presents an initial study of the social vulnerability of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei(B-T-H) Region in China.The goal is to replicate and test the applicability of the United States Social Vulnerability Index(So VI) method in a Chinese cultural context.Thirty-nine variables adapted from the So VI were collected in relation to two aspects:socioeconomic vulnerability and built environment vulnerability.Using factor analysis,seven factors were extracted from the variable set:the structure of social development,the level of economic and government financial strength,social justice and poverty,family structure,the intensity of space development,the status of residential housing and transportation,and building structure.Factor scores were summed to get the final So VI scores and the most and least vulnerable units were identified and mapped.The highest social vulnerability is concentrated in the northwest of the study area.The least socially vulnerable areas are mainly distributed in the Beijing,Tianjin and Shijiazhuang core urban peripheral and central city areas of the prefecture-level cities.The results show that this method is a useful tool for revealing places that have a high level of vulnerability,in other words,areas which are more likely to face significant challenges in coping with a large-scale event.These findings could provide a scientific basis for policy making and the implementation of disaster prevention and mitigation in China.

The effect of mining face＇s direction on the observed seismic activity

A major natural hazard associated with LGOM （Legnica-Glogow Copper Mining） mining is the dynamic phenomena occurrence, physically observed as seismic tremors. Some of them generate effects in the form of relaxations or bumps. Long-term observations of the rock mass behaviour indicate that the degree of seismic hazard, and therefore also seismic activity in the LGOM area, is affected by the great depth of the copper deposit, high-strength rocks as well as the ability of rock mass to accumulate elastic energy. In this aspect, the effect of the characteristics of initial stress tensor and the orientation of considered mining panel in regards to its components must be emphasised. The primary objective of this study is to answer the question, which of the factors considered as ＂influencing＂ the dynamic phenomena occurrence in copper mines have a statistically significant effect on seismic activity and to what extent. Using the general linear model procedure, an attempt has been made to quantify the impact of different parameters, including the depth of deposit, the presence of goaf in the vicinity of operating mining panels and the direction of mining face advance, on seismic activity based on historical data from 2000 to 2010 concerned with the dynamic phenomena recorded in different mining panels in Rudna mine. The direction of mining face advance as well as the goaf situation in the vicinity of the mining panel are of the greatest interest in the case of the seismic activity in LGOM. It can be assumed that the appropriate manipulation of parameters of mining systems should ensure the safest variant of mining method under specific geological and mining conditions.

Empirical Evidence of Natural Shocks, Risk Perceptions and Resilience from Cameroon

Invariably, it is the poorest of the poor who are mostly affected by perverse disasters, policies and laws. A major concern in disaster research is to explore the relationship between shock experiences and victims＇ perceptions of risk, as well as their possible effect on victims＇ behavior for resilience and adaptation. We explore this relationship on victimized households of the 1986 Lake Nyos disaster, employing a quasi-experimental design. Matching was done with non-affected households. Both groups affected and non-affected households were of adequate size, and subject to the same questionnaire. Selection of （470） test and matching households was purposely limited to nine of the ten towns accommodating both survivors and non survivors of the examined disaster. A list constructed with traditional rulers in each village allowed for random sampling of non victims for comparative analysis. We then compare households affected by the disaster with those who were not. The results reveal differentiated perceptions of risk and management behavior contingent on whether households experienced the shock or not. However, solidarity and reciprocity remained extremely high and not significantly different amongst both household types, suggesting resilience of endogenous, informal risk response mechanisms to natural shocks. The article concludes that analyzing risk perceptions can help explain why some individuals, households or communities may be resilient to shocks and others not. We argue for a combination of subjective perceptions and objective shock analysis, especially if the analyst hopes to influence policy.

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Food Security

In view of the fact that climate-related disasters are already taking a heavy toll, causing massive damage to crops and infrastructure and forcing some people to flee their homes, however, the potential impacts of climate change are likely to trigger adaptive responses that influence environmental and socio-economic drivers of food system performance in positive as well as negative ways. This paper was conducted through the collection of some research materials with the projected balance of these various climate impacts on food system performance and food security outcomes at the local and global levels. More so that, food security is likely to be affected by climate change in several ways： food security depends not only on the direct impact of climate change on food production but also on its indirect impact on human nutrition and health, economic growth, trade flows and food aid policy. The paper further examined the effectiveness of managing new risks and uncertainty, improving the quality of information and its use, monitoring weather and improving scientific understanding of climate change, promoting insurance schemes, maintaining biodiversity and access to fund as some of the crucial measures for adaptation. The large amount of resources that would be necessary to avoid the worst case scenario suggests the necessity of continued support from the international community to improve food security at the local and global levels as a whole.

Protective equipment for emergency rescue in alpine-cold region

Alpine-cold regions are characterized as hypoxia,strong wind,heavy rain,cold climate,huge temperature difference between day and night,and vertical climate. All these make it difficult for an emergency rescue when a natural disaster such as earthquake happens. Based on the characteristics of emergency rescue in alpinecold region,several multifunctional protective equipments have been developed by the Quartermaster Equipment Institute of General Logistics Departmen(tGLD)of the Chinese People's Liberation Army(CPLA). These equipments are lightweight,durable and environment adaptable.

Evolution of Damage on Historical Heritage Buildings in Presence of Catastrophic Events and Aggressive Natural Phenomena

The feasibility analysis of projects for the preservation of the historical heritage buildings is an important problem concerning the evaluation of ＂the total cost of intervention＂, which includes all the future damage costs. The total cost of intervention represents a suitable measure of the expected deterioration risk and its evolution obviously depends on the damage process which buildings are subjected to. That damage phenomena affecting masonry buildings pleased into an aggressive environment are suitably modelled by renewal processes： this happens both in the case of catastrophic events, or in the case of the so-called ＂natural aging＂, in which damage comes off gradually in time. In the hypothesis ofa Markovian renewal process （Mrp） describing the damage process, the total cost of all the future damage is evaluated taking into account both the damage aspects： damages due to catastrophic aspects and damages due to aggressive environment, supposing different maintenance and/or rehabilitation scenarios. A semi-Markov process （s-Mp） is defined to model the damage rehabilitation history of buildings in presence of seismic events, natural ageing and rehabilitation strategies. The expected rewards connected to the process are defined; they represent a significant measure of the risk.

Quantitative Assessment and Spatial Characteristics of Agricultural Drought Risk in the Jinghe Watershed, Northwestern China

Though drought is a recurrent phenomenon in the Jinghe watershed, very little attention has been paid to drought mitigation and preparedness. This article presents a method for the spatial assessment of agricultural drought risk in the Jinghe watershed of western China at a 1-km grid scale. A conceptual framework, which emphasizes the combined roles of hazard and vulnerability in defining risk, is used. The Z index method in a GIS environment is used to map the spatial extent of drought hazards. The key social and physical factors that define agricultural drought in the context of the Jinghe watershed are indentified and corresponding thematic maps are prepared. Risk is calculated by the integration of hazard and vulnerability. Results show that the risk gradient follows a north-south and west-east tendency and that agricultural droughts pose the highest risk to northern and northwestern sections of the Jinghe watershed.

Bird assemblages in natural and urbanized habitats along elevational gradient in Nainital district （western Himalaya） of Uttarakhand state, India

The Indian subcontinent is amongst the biologically better known parts of the tropics and its bird fauna has been well documented. However, avian community composition and diversity along elevational gradients and amongst habitat types remains unclear in India. We attempted to estimate bird assemblages in terms of diversity, species composition, status and abun- dance in urban and forest habitats of Nainital district of Uttarakhand （350-2450 m asl; 29N）, Western Himalayas. We sampled different elevational gradients and to understand the effect of urbanization and season on avian community composition. Field studies were conducted during January 2005 to January 2007. Results indicated that the forest had more complex bird community structure in terms of higher species richness （14.35 vs 8.69）, higher species diversity （Shannon＇s index 4.00 vs 3.54）, higher evenness （0.838 vs 0.811） and more rare species （17 vs 5） as compared to urban habitat. However, the abundance of 11 species was higher in urban habitats. Bird Species Richness （BSR） varied considerably among study areas （91 to 113 species）, was high- est （113 species） at mid elevation （1450-1700 m asl） and decreased （22 species） at high elevation （1900-2450 m asl）. It seems that high BSR at mid altitudes is not caused by the presence of a group of mid altitude specialists but rather that there is an over- lap in the distribution of low land and high elevation specialists at this altitude. BSR and Bird Species Diversity fluctuated across seasons but not habitat type [Current Zoology 57 （3）： 318-329,2011].