株洲市近16年40次暴雨过程综合研究

分析2001~2016年16年以来株洲市40次区域性暴雨过程,找其共性,归纳这些暴雨过程完全业务化的前期特征,提炼株洲市区域性暴雨预报模型。起报日08时存在南北力子偶,且其相互作用域在本地上游邻域5纬距以内,南北力子偶中自组织辐合水汽流的种子是判断暴雨落点的关键,其可由925~850h Pa本地上游邻域辐合水汽流来跟踪。预报指标所需数据全部可从日常业务系统得到。

2010年湖南汛期13次暴雨过程的力子天气学分析

采用力子天气学方法,通过对2010年4月以来出现在湖南的13次区域性暴雨天气过程进行合成分析。结果表明,2010年湖南汛期的13次暴雨均与自组织的辐合水汽流密切相关,暴雨是自组织辐合水汽流爆发后所产生的必然结果;自组织辐合水汽流的孕育区对应未来12～36 h出现暴雨的区域,自组织辐合水汽流孕育区一旦消失,则未来12～36 h不会有区域性暴雨出现;自组织辐合水汽流孕育区产生在大尺度南北力子偶的交汇域。南北力子偶是否存在可以作为汛期区域性暴雨的短期预报模式。

Lizi Synoptic Model for Rainstorm Forecast and its Applicable Sample

[Objective] The paper was to analyze lizi synoptic meteorology of 13 rain- storm processes during the flood season of Hunan Province in 2010. [Method] Using the principle of lizi synoptic meteorology, 13 regional rainstorm weather processes occurred in Hunan Province in 2010 were analyzed. [Result] Thirteen rainstorms are all closely related to self-organization convergent airflow, rainstorm is the inevitable result after the outbreak of self-organization convergent airflow. The inoculation area of self-organization convergent airflow is accorded with the occurrence area of rain- storm in the next 12-36 h; once the inoculation area of self-organization convergent airflow disappears, there will be no regional rainstorm in the next 12-36 h; the inoc- ulation area of self-organization convergent airflow is produced in the convergence domain of large scale of southern and northern lizi pair. [Conclusion] The existence of southern and northern lizi pair can be used as the short-term forecast model of regional rainstorm during flood season.