Surface ozone(O_(3))poses significant threats to public health,agricultural crops,and plants in natural ecosystems.Global warming is likely to increase future O_(3)mainly by altering atmospheric photochemical reaction...Surface ozone(O_(3))poses significant threats to public health,agricultural crops,and plants in natural ecosystems.Global warming is likely to increase future O_(3)mainly by altering atmospheric photochemical reactions and enhancing biogenic volatile organic compound(BVOC)emissions.To assess the impacts of the future 1.5 K climate target on O_(3)concentrations and ecological O_(3)exposure in China,numerical simulations were conducted using the CMAQ(Community Multiscale Air Quality)model during April-October 2018.Ecological O_(3)exposure was estimated using six indices(i.e.,M7,M24,N100,SUM60,W126,and AOT40f).The results show that the temperature rise increases the MDA8 O_(3)(maximum daily eight-hour average O_(3))concentrations by∼3 ppb and the number of O_(3)exceedance days by 10-20 days in the North China Plain(NCP),Yangtze River Delta(YRD),and Sichuan Basin(SCB)regions.All O_(3)exposure indices show substantial increases.M24 and M7 in eastern and southern China will rise by 1-3 ppb and 2-4 ppb,respectively.N100 increases by more than 120 h in the surrounding regions of Beijing.SUM60 increases by greater than 9 ppm h^(−1),W126 increases by greater than 15 ppm h^(−1)in Shaanxi and SCB,and AOT40f increases by 6 ppm h^(−1)in NCP and SCB.The temperature increase also promotes atmospheric oxidation capacity(AOC)levels,with the higher AOC contributed by OH radicals in southern China but by NO_(3)radicals in northern China.The change in the reaction rate caused by the temperature increase has a greater influence on O_(3)exposure and AOC than the change in BVOC emissions.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China[grant numbers 42277095 and 42021004].
文摘Surface ozone(O_(3))poses significant threats to public health,agricultural crops,and plants in natural ecosystems.Global warming is likely to increase future O_(3)mainly by altering atmospheric photochemical reactions and enhancing biogenic volatile organic compound(BVOC)emissions.To assess the impacts of the future 1.5 K climate target on O_(3)concentrations and ecological O_(3)exposure in China,numerical simulations were conducted using the CMAQ(Community Multiscale Air Quality)model during April-October 2018.Ecological O_(3)exposure was estimated using six indices(i.e.,M7,M24,N100,SUM60,W126,and AOT40f).The results show that the temperature rise increases the MDA8 O_(3)(maximum daily eight-hour average O_(3))concentrations by∼3 ppb and the number of O_(3)exceedance days by 10-20 days in the North China Plain(NCP),Yangtze River Delta(YRD),and Sichuan Basin(SCB)regions.All O_(3)exposure indices show substantial increases.M24 and M7 in eastern and southern China will rise by 1-3 ppb and 2-4 ppb,respectively.N100 increases by more than 120 h in the surrounding regions of Beijing.SUM60 increases by greater than 9 ppm h^(−1),W126 increases by greater than 15 ppm h^(−1)in Shaanxi and SCB,and AOT40f increases by 6 ppm h^(−1)in NCP and SCB.The temperature increase also promotes atmospheric oxidation capacity(AOC)levels,with the higher AOC contributed by OH radicals in southern China but by NO_(3)radicals in northern China.The change in the reaction rate caused by the temperature increase has a greater influence on O_(3)exposure and AOC than the change in BVOC emissions.
