This paper studies the temporal and spatial distribution of great global earthquakes （Mw i〉 8.0） since 1900. We compare the two periods of upsurges of great earthquakes occurring in the middle of last century and b...This paper studies the temporal and spatial distribution of great global earthquakes （Mw i〉 8.0） since 1900. We compare the two periods of upsurges of great earthquakes occurring in the middle of last century and beginning of this century. The former period took place between 1950 and 1965 during which 13 great earthquakes （Mw I〉 8.0） occurred, including three events with moment magnitude greater than 9. 0. The largest magnitude in this period reached 9.6. The latter period starts from the beginning of this century. In less than 12 years, 15 great earthquakes have attacked the world with the largest magnitude being Mw 9. 1. On the basis of comparison between these two upsurges of global earthquake activity, we infer that the ongoing high level of earthquake activity may continue for another five years or so. Numerous great earthquakes （Mw I〉8. 0） and many large earthquakes （Mw6.0 ~ 7. 0） will occur globally in these five years. In addition, this paper also discusses the relationships between earthquake activity along the Sumatra segment of the Indian-Australia plate boundary and that in the Bayankala block in the middle of Qinghai-Tibetan plateau as well as in the blocks of the southern plateau. The results indicate that the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau, in particular its middle and southern parts, is a likely place for future earthquakes of magnitude over 7.0.展开更多
基金sponsored by the "Scientific Prospection Drilling of the Wenchuan Earthquake Fault Zone" of the National Key Technology R&D Program,China
文摘This paper studies the temporal and spatial distribution of great global earthquakes （Mw i〉 8.0） since 1900. We compare the two periods of upsurges of great earthquakes occurring in the middle of last century and beginning of this century. The former period took place between 1950 and 1965 during which 13 great earthquakes （Mw I〉 8.0） occurred, including three events with moment magnitude greater than 9. 0. The largest magnitude in this period reached 9.6. The latter period starts from the beginning of this century. In less than 12 years, 15 great earthquakes have attacked the world with the largest magnitude being Mw 9. 1. On the basis of comparison between these two upsurges of global earthquake activity, we infer that the ongoing high level of earthquake activity may continue for another five years or so. Numerous great earthquakes （Mw I〉8. 0） and many large earthquakes （Mw6.0 ~ 7. 0） will occur globally in these five years. In addition, this paper also discusses the relationships between earthquake activity along the Sumatra segment of the Indian-Australia plate boundary and that in the Bayankala block in the middle of Qinghai-Tibetan plateau as well as in the blocks of the southern plateau. The results indicate that the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau, in particular its middle and southern parts, is a likely place for future earthquakes of magnitude over 7.0.
