European mountains are particularly sensitive to climatic disruptions and land use changes.The latter leads to high rates of natural reforestation over the last 50 years. Faced with the challenge of predicting possibl...European mountains are particularly sensitive to climatic disruptions and land use changes.The latter leads to high rates of natural reforestation over the last 50 years. Faced with the challenge of predicting possible impacts on ecosystem services,LUCC models offer new opportunities for land managers to adapt or mitigate their strategies.Assessing the spatial uncertainty of future LUCC is crucial for the definition of sustainable land use strategies. However, the sources of uncertainty may differ, including the input parameters, the model itself, and the wide range of possible futures. The aim of this paper is to propose a method to assess the probability of occurrence of future LUCC that combines the inherent uncertainty of model parameterization and the ensemble uncertainty of the future based scenarios. For this purpose, we used the Land Change Modeler tool to simulate future LUCC on a study site located in the Pyrenees Mountains(France) and two scenarios illustrating two land use strategies. The model was parameterized with the same driving factors used for its calibration. The definition of ‘static vs. dynamic' and ‘quantitative vs.qualitative(discretized)' driving factors, and their combination resulted in four parameterizations. The combination of model outcomes produced maps of the spatial uncertainty of future LUCC. This work involves adapting the definition of spatial uncertainty in the literature to future-based LUCC studies. It goes beyond the uncertainty of simulation models by integrating the uncertainty of the future to provide maps to help decision makers and land managers.展开更多
Desertification caused by land degradation and overexploitation of natural resources is threatening large parts of eastern and southern Mediterranean. The actual state of desertification sensitivity in Lebanon was spa...Desertification caused by land degradation and overexploitation of natural resources is threatening large parts of eastern and southern Mediterranean. The actual state of desertification sensitivity in Lebanon was spatially assessed using site specific environmental bio-physical indicators, demographic pressure and socioeconomic conditions. Bio-physical assessment included the aridity index derived from integrated assessment of the historical data for 48 climatic stations spread throughout the country, the new detailed soil map at 1：50,000 scale, and the updated land cover/use map at 1：20,000 derived from IKONOS 2005. The methodology also included livelihood conditions and poverty at local administrative ＂Caza＂ level. Results showed the integrated impact of local climate, soil and vegetation quality and socioeconomic conditions on sensitivity to desertification. A total of 78% of the territories have low and very low climate quality index preconditioning the sensitivity to desertification. Fourteen Cazas out of 26 in total, representing more than 66% of the country, have low socioeconomic satisfaction index. Furthermore, negative trends are alleviated by good quality relict soils and vegetation cover. The actual extent of desertification covers 40.48% of the national territory, much of which occurs under semi-arid climate, moderate or low soil and vegetation quality and poor living conditions. The outcome of this research adjusted the previous coarse estimates of desertification prone areas at the national level. Results allow for realistic, policy oriented local assessment for responsive land use planning and proactive sustainable, national and local land management in the context of the national action plan to combat desertification.展开更多
Moderate grazing by cattle increases the heterogeneity of soil and vegetation. This has been suggested as an ecologically sustainable mean of managing natural environments endangered by tree encroachment, such as heat...Moderate grazing by cattle increases the heterogeneity of soil and vegetation. This has been suggested as an ecologically sustainable mean of managing natural environments endangered by tree encroachment, such as heathlands. Our study was performed to test the impact of grazing intensity on soil macroinvertebrate communities in heterogeneous landscapes in a private property eligible to the Natura 2000 European Network of Special Protection Areas within the Brenne Natural Regional Park （Indre, ~rance）. We sampled macroinvertebrates along a broken line crossing 5 different land-use types, from pasture to pine forest, passing through a besom heath （Erica scoparia） heathland at 3 levels of cattle pressure. We hypothesized that： i） litter-dwelling （mostly arthropods and mollusks） and soil-dwelling macroinvertebrates （mostly earthworms） would respond in an opposite manner to various grazing intensities, and ii） intermediate cattle pressure （pastured heath） would increase soil and community heterogeneity. The results supported the first hypothesis, which was explained by land-use impacts mediated by soil properties. However, our results supported only partly the second hypothesis since maximum dissimilarity （whether in the composition of soil macroinvertebrate communities or in soil features） was observed in only one out of the two pastured heaths where cattle pressure was intermediate.展开更多
基金supported the HumanEnvironment Observatory of the Haut-Vicdessos (Labex DRIIHM - OHM Haut-Vicdessos)the MODE RESPYR project (ANR 2010 JCJC 1804-01)the SAMCO Project (ANR-12-SENV-0004) founded by the French National Science Agency (ANR)
文摘European mountains are particularly sensitive to climatic disruptions and land use changes.The latter leads to high rates of natural reforestation over the last 50 years. Faced with the challenge of predicting possible impacts on ecosystem services,LUCC models offer new opportunities for land managers to adapt or mitigate their strategies.Assessing the spatial uncertainty of future LUCC is crucial for the definition of sustainable land use strategies. However, the sources of uncertainty may differ, including the input parameters, the model itself, and the wide range of possible futures. The aim of this paper is to propose a method to assess the probability of occurrence of future LUCC that combines the inherent uncertainty of model parameterization and the ensemble uncertainty of the future based scenarios. For this purpose, we used the Land Change Modeler tool to simulate future LUCC on a study site located in the Pyrenees Mountains(France) and two scenarios illustrating two land use strategies. The model was parameterized with the same driving factors used for its calibration. The definition of ‘static vs. dynamic' and ‘quantitative vs.qualitative(discretized)' driving factors, and their combination resulted in four parameterizations. The combination of model outcomes produced maps of the spatial uncertainty of future LUCC. This work involves adapting the definition of spatial uncertainty in the literature to future-based LUCC studies. It goes beyond the uncertainty of simulation models by integrating the uncertainty of the future to provide maps to help decision makers and land managers.
文摘Desertification caused by land degradation and overexploitation of natural resources is threatening large parts of eastern and southern Mediterranean. The actual state of desertification sensitivity in Lebanon was spatially assessed using site specific environmental bio-physical indicators, demographic pressure and socioeconomic conditions. Bio-physical assessment included the aridity index derived from integrated assessment of the historical data for 48 climatic stations spread throughout the country, the new detailed soil map at 1：50,000 scale, and the updated land cover/use map at 1：20,000 derived from IKONOS 2005. The methodology also included livelihood conditions and poverty at local administrative ＂Caza＂ level. Results showed the integrated impact of local climate, soil and vegetation quality and socioeconomic conditions on sensitivity to desertification. A total of 78% of the territories have low and very low climate quality index preconditioning the sensitivity to desertification. Fourteen Cazas out of 26 in total, representing more than 66% of the country, have low socioeconomic satisfaction index. Furthermore, negative trends are alleviated by good quality relict soils and vegetation cover. The actual extent of desertification covers 40.48% of the national territory, much of which occurs under semi-arid climate, moderate or low soil and vegetation quality and poor living conditions. The outcome of this research adjusted the previous coarse estimates of desertification prone areas at the national level. Results allow for realistic, policy oriented local assessment for responsive land use planning and proactive sustainable, national and local land management in the context of the national action plan to combat desertification.
基金supported by the Institut Fédératif de Recherches, France (No.101)
文摘Moderate grazing by cattle increases the heterogeneity of soil and vegetation. This has been suggested as an ecologically sustainable mean of managing natural environments endangered by tree encroachment, such as heathlands. Our study was performed to test the impact of grazing intensity on soil macroinvertebrate communities in heterogeneous landscapes in a private property eligible to the Natura 2000 European Network of Special Protection Areas within the Brenne Natural Regional Park （Indre, ~rance）. We sampled macroinvertebrates along a broken line crossing 5 different land-use types, from pasture to pine forest, passing through a besom heath （Erica scoparia） heathland at 3 levels of cattle pressure. We hypothesized that： i） litter-dwelling （mostly arthropods and mollusks） and soil-dwelling macroinvertebrates （mostly earthworms） would respond in an opposite manner to various grazing intensities, and ii） intermediate cattle pressure （pastured heath） would increase soil and community heterogeneity. The results supported the first hypothesis, which was explained by land-use impacts mediated by soil properties. However, our results supported only partly the second hypothesis since maximum dissimilarity （whether in the composition of soil macroinvertebrate communities or in soil features） was observed in only one out of the two pastured heaths where cattle pressure was intermediate.
