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玛纳斯河流域绿洲-荒漠互馈作用的系统动力学模拟
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作者 李天宏 曹建科 张昌盛 《应用基础与工程科学学报》 EI CSCD 2006年第3期340-352,共13页
以玛纳斯河流域为例,在分析流域内人类活动、经济发展与生态环境耦合关系,以及绿洲与荒漠系统之间相互影响的基础上,建立系统动力学模型模拟了绿洲-荒漠系统互馈关系,重点考察了水资源变化、经济发展和生态环境环境之间的变化关系.以现... 以玛纳斯河流域为例,在分析流域内人类活动、经济发展与生态环境耦合关系,以及绿洲与荒漠系统之间相互影响的基础上,建立系统动力学模型模拟了绿洲-荒漠系统互馈关系,重点考察了水资源变化、经济发展和生态环境环境之间的变化关系.以现状数据作为模型输入,模拟了2000—2020年社会经济发展和水资源的需求状况.结果表明,在水资源量50%保证率下,水资源可供量越来越小于经济发展的需水量,到2020年保证率将降到50%以下;总体上荒漠和山地生态环境将恶化.在调整投资比例、实行退耕还草和提高工农业的用水效率的情况下,模型模拟表明,在经济增长速度不放慢的同时,荒漠生态环境会有所改善. 展开更多
关键词 系统动力学 绿洲-荒漠经济生态系统 玛纳斯河流域 模拟
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青海荒漠开发几个战略问题
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作者 梁代生 《柴达木开发研究》 2000年第6期25-28,共4页
关键词 青海 荒漠开发 人才 荒漠农业 荒漠畜牧业 产业结构 水资源 利用 荒漠经济
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Vulnerability to Desertification in Lebanon Based on Geo-information and Socioeconomic Conditions
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作者 Talal Darwish Pandi Zdruli +3 位作者 Ramy Saliba Mohamad Awad Amin Shaban Ghaleb Faour 《Journal of Environmental Science and Engineering(B)》 2012年第7期851-864,共14页
Desertification caused by land degradation and overexploitation of natural resources is threatening large parts of eastern and southern Mediterranean. The actual state of desertification sensitivity in Lebanon was spa... Desertification caused by land degradation and overexploitation of natural resources is threatening large parts of eastern and southern Mediterranean. The actual state of desertification sensitivity in Lebanon was spatially assessed using site specific environmental bio-physical indicators, demographic pressure and socioeconomic conditions. Bio-physical assessment included the aridity index derived from integrated assessment of the historical data for 48 climatic stations spread throughout the country, the new detailed soil map at 1:50,000 scale, and the updated land cover/use map at 1:20,000 derived from IKONOS 2005. The methodology also included livelihood conditions and poverty at local administrative "Caza" level. Results showed the integrated impact of local climate, soil and vegetation quality and socioeconomic conditions on sensitivity to desertification. A total of 78% of the territories have low and very low climate quality index preconditioning the sensitivity to desertification. Fourteen Cazas out of 26 in total, representing more than 66% of the country, have low socioeconomic satisfaction index. Furthermore, negative trends are alleviated by good quality relict soils and vegetation cover. The actual extent of desertification covers 40.48% of the national territory, much of which occurs under semi-arid climate, moderate or low soil and vegetation quality and poor living conditions. The outcome of this research adjusted the previous coarse estimates of desertification prone areas at the national level. Results allow for realistic, policy oriented local assessment for responsive land use planning and proactive sustainable, national and local land management in the context of the national action plan to combat desertification. 展开更多
关键词 Integrated assessment land degradation east Mediterranean sensitivity sustainable land management.
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