菲南和平进程的回顾与思考

为了和平解决菲南穆斯林分离主义问题,菲律宾政府与穆斯林反政府武装"摩洛民族解放阵线"先后签署两个和平协议,与"摩洛伊斯兰解放阵线"也进行了长时间的和平谈判,但仍未实现菲南的和平。原因在于菲律宾政府与穆斯林组织在实现和平的目标方面存在重大分歧;双方已签署的和平协议未能成功实施,削弱了人们对和平进程的信心;此外,也未能形成一个达成和实施和平协议的有利环境。

Intrusions of Kuroshio and Shelf Waters on Northern Slope of South China Sea in Summer 2015

The northern slope region of the South China Sea(SCS) is a biological hot spot characterized by high primary productivity and biomasses transported by cross-shelf currents, which support the spawning and growth of commercially and ecologically important fish species. To understand the physical and biogeochemical processes that promote the high primary production of this region, we conducted a cruise from June 10 and July 2, 2015. In this study, we used fuzzy cluster analysis and optimum multiparameter analysis methods to analyze the hydrographic data collected during the cruise to determine the compositions of the upper 55-m water masses on the SCS northern slope and thereby elucidate the cross-slope transport of shelf water(SHW) and the intrusions of Kuroshio water(KW). We also analyzed the geostrophic currents derived from acoustic Doppler current profiler measurements and satellite data. The results reveal the surface waters on the northern slope of the SCS to be primarily composed of waters originating from South China Sea water(SCSW), KW, and SHW. The SCSW dominated a majority of the study region at percentages ranging between 60% and 100%. We found a strong cross-slope current with speeds greater than 50 cms^(-1) to have carried SHW into and through the surveyed slope area, and KW to have intruded onto the slope via mesoscale eddies, thereby dominating the southwestern section of the study area.

Prediction of Gravity Anomalies Over the South China and Philippine Seas from Multi-satellite Altimeter Sea Surface Heights

t Gravity anomalies on a2.5 ×2.5 arc-minute grid in a non-tidal system were derived over the South China and Philippine Seas from multi-satellite altimetry data. North and east components of deflections of the vertical were computed from altimeter-derived sea surface heights at crossover locations, and gridded onto a 2.5 × 2.5 arc-minute resolution grid. EGM96-derived components of deflections of the vertical and gravity anomalies gridded into 2.5 × 2.5 arc-minute resolutions were then used as reference global geopotential model quantities in a remove-restore procedure to implement the Inverse Vening Meinesz formula via the 1D-FFT technique to predict the gravity anomalies over the South China and Philippine Seas from the gridded altimeter-derived components of deflections of the vertical. Statistical comparisons between the altimeter-derived and the shipboard gravity anomalies showed that there is a root-mean-square agreement of 5.7 mgals between them.

Water exchange and circulation structure near the Luzon Strait in early summer

Using hydrographic data covering large areas of ocean for the period from June 21 to July 5 in 2009, we studied the circulation structure in the Luzon Strait area, examined the routes of water exchange between the South China Sea （SCS） and the Philippine Sea, and estimated the volume transport through Luzon Strait. We found that the Kuroshio axis follows a e-shaped path slightly east of 121°E in the upper layer. With an increase in depth, the Kuroshio axis became gradually farther from the island of Luzon. To study the water exchange between the Philippine Sea and the SCS, identification of inflows and outflows is necessary. We first identified which flows contributed to the water exchange through Luzon Strait, which differs from the approach taken in previous studies. We determined that the obvious water exchange is in the section of 121°E. The westward inflow from the Philippine Sea into the SCS is 6.39 Sv in volume, and mainly in the 100-500 m layer at 19.5°-20°N （accounting for 4.40 Sv）, while the outflow from the SCS into the Philippine Sea is concentrated in the upper 100 m at 19°-20°N and upper 400 m at 21°-21.5°N, and below 240 m at 19°-19.5°N, accounting for 1.07, 3.02 and 3.43 Sv in volume transport, respectively.

Determination of Geoid over South China Sea and Philippine Sea from Multi-satellite Altimetry Data

A new computational procedure for derivation of marine geoid on a 2.5′×2.5′grid in a non-tidal system over the South China Sea and the Philippine Sea from multi-satellite altimeter sea surface heights is discussed. Single-and dual-satellite crossovers were performed, and components of deflections of the vertical were determined at the crossover positions using Sand-well's computational theory, and gridded onto a 2.5′×2.5′resolution grid by employing the Shepard's interpolation procedure. 2.5′×2.5′grid of EGM96-derived components of deflections of the vertical and geoid heights were then used as reference global geopotential model quantities in a remove-restore procedure to implement the Molodensky-like formula via 1D-FFT technique to predict the geoid heights over the South China Sea and the Philippine Sea from the gridded altimeter-derived components of deflec-tions of the vertical. Statistical comparisons between the altimeter-and the EGM96- derived geoid heights showed that there was a root-mean-square agreement of ±0.35 m between them in a region of less tectonically active geological structures. However, over areas of tectonically active structures such as the Philippine trench, differences of about -19.9 m were obtained.

Effects of Protective Structures in Morpho-Sedimentological Changes： A Case Study of Rufisque＇s Coast, Petite C6te, Senegal

Protective structures, built in the 1980＇s in order to reduce or stop coastal erosion in Rufisque, involved a modification of the coastal morpho-sedimentary landscape and have intensified the coastal dynamics. The diachronic study of beach profiles, before and after the seawalls construction showed that these protective structures accentuated the coastal erosion, with more important sedimentary deficits at the ends of the structures. Today, the Rufisque coast is characterized by a set of sedimentary cells whose morphological evolution and annual sedimentary dynamics are controlled by seasonal forcing： sedimentary deposits in dry season and erosion in wet season. However, this alternation of deposits and erosion phase shows spatiotemporal disparities. These disparities are very marked between a northwestern area characterized by concave profiles and a southeastern area （the bay of Rufisque） characterized by convex profiles and a much more important sedimentary deficit. The results also showed that these methods of shoreline protection are not durable measurements （degradation of the structures） and have exacerbated the vulnerability to coastal erosion as well as those of the coastal populations.