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供水不确定性随机模拟分析应用研究--以加拿大萨斯喀彻温省流域水资源综合管理为例
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作者 杨菲(译) 柯学莎(译) 《水利水电快报》 2016年第12期13-20,共8页
气候变暖和土地管理集约化改变了全球大多数地区的供水特征。因此,从科学和社会的角度,将供水不确定性纳入长期的水资源规划和管理十分重要。基于脆弱性评估的新方法,对供水变化和需求扩张下的水资源综合管理进行了系统分析。分析对象... 气候变暖和土地管理集约化改变了全球大多数地区的供水特征。因此,从科学和社会的角度,将供水不确定性纳入长期的水资源规划和管理十分重要。基于脆弱性评估的新方法,对供水变化和需求扩张下的水资源综合管理进行了系统分析。分析对象为加拿大跨省的萨斯喀彻温河流域,萨斯喀彻温河水资源保障了该流域市政、工业及农业灌溉和水力发电的用水需求。为探索当前及未来供水不确定性和灌溉需求增长条件下对水资源系统的联合效应,学者提出了扩大灌溉面积。扩大灌溉面积可能显著影响到北美最大的内陆三角洲,即萨斯喀彻温河三角洲枯水期的峰值流量。研究证实了对系统的脆弱性开展随机分析的实用性,采用随机分析,可方便人们直观表达并理解社会经济权衡这一概念。此性能评估有助于基于供水不确定性的长期水资源规划和管理。 展开更多
关键词 水资源综合管理 水资源配置 管理和规划模型(SWAMPSK) 脆弱性评估 萨斯喀彻温河 加拿大
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The Changing Cold Regions Network:Observation,diagnosis and prediction of environmental change in the Saskatchewan and Mackenzie River Basins,Canada 被引量:6
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作者 Chris M DEBEER Howard S WHEATER +4 位作者 William L QUINTON Sean K CAREY Ronald E STEWART Murray D MACKAY Philip MARSH 《Science China Earth Sciences》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2015年第1期46-60,共15页
Climate change is causing rapid and severe changes to many Earth systems and processes,with widespread cryospheric,ecological,and hydrological impacts globally,and especially in high northern latitudes.This is of majo... Climate change is causing rapid and severe changes to many Earth systems and processes,with widespread cryospheric,ecological,and hydrological impacts globally,and especially in high northern latitudes.This is of major societal concern and there is an urgent need for improved understanding and predictive tools for environmental management.The Changing Cold Regions Network(CCRN)is a Canadian research consortium with a focus to integrate existing and new experimental data with modelling and remote sensing products to understand,diagnose,and predict changing land,water,and climate,and their interactions and feedbacks over the geographic domain of the Mackenzie and Saskatchewan River Basins in Canada.The network operates a set of 14 unique and focused Water,Ecosystem,Cryosphere and Climate(WECC)observatories within this region,which provide opportunities to observe and understand processes and their interaction,as well as develop and test numerical simulation models,and provide validation data for remote sensing products.This paper describes this network and its observational,experimental,and modelling programme.An overview of many of the recent Earth system changes observed across the study region is provided,and some local insights from WECC observatories that may partly explain regional patterns and trends are described.Several of the model products being developed are discussed,and linkages with the local to international user community are reviewed—In particular,the use of WECC data towards model and remote sensing product calibration and validation is highlighted.Some future activities and prospects for the network are also presented at the end of the paper. 展开更多
关键词 climate change CRYOSPHERE HYDROLOGY atmospheric science ECOLOGY modelling CANADA
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