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改进天牛须搜索优化神经网络的港口货运量预测 被引量:4
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作者 廖列法 欧阳宗英 《科学技术与工程》 北大核心 2021年第7期2937-2944,共8页
为对港口货运量进行科学精准预测,结合天牛须搜索(beetle antennae search, BAS)算法和蒙特卡洛准则,提出一种改进BAS的Elman神经网络预测模型。收集上海港1989—2018年内的货运量以及当地各项经济数据,建立港口货运量预测评估体系,对... 为对港口货运量进行科学精准预测,结合天牛须搜索(beetle antennae search, BAS)算法和蒙特卡洛准则,提出一种改进BAS的Elman神经网络预测模型。收集上海港1989—2018年内的货运量以及当地各项经济数据,建立港口货运量预测评估体系,对各项影响因子进行预处理,消除数据冗余信息对预测的影响,对预处理后的数据进行仿真测试。实验结果表明,该模型预测准确率可达95%以上,有效地提高了港口货运量的预测精度。 展开更多
关键词 天牛须搜索 ELMAN神经网络 吞吐量预测 蒙特卡洛准则 主成分分析
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Comparison of GUF and Monte Carlo methods to evaluate task-specific uncertainty in laser tracker measurement 被引量:1
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作者 杨景照 李国喜 +2 位作者 吴宝中 龚京忠 王杰 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS 2014年第10期3793-3804,共12页
Measurement uncertainty plays an important role in laser tracking measurement analyses. In the present work, the guides to the expression of uncertainty in measurement(GUM) uncertainty framework(GUF) and its supplemen... Measurement uncertainty plays an important role in laser tracking measurement analyses. In the present work, the guides to the expression of uncertainty in measurement(GUM) uncertainty framework(GUF) and its supplement, the Monte Carlo method, were used to estimate the uncertainty of task-specific laser tracker measurements. First, the sources of error in laser tracker measurement were analyzed in detail, including instruments, measuring network fusion, measurement strategies, measurement process factors(such as the operator), measurement environment, and task-specific data processing. Second, the GUM and Monte Carlo methods and their application to laser tracker measurement were presented. Finally, a case study involving the uncertainty estimation of a cylindricity measurement process using the GUF and Monte Carlo methods was illustrated. The expanded uncertainty results(at 95% confidence levels) obtained with the Monte Carlo method are 0.069 mm(least-squares criterion) and 0.062 mm(minimum zone criterion), respectively, while with the GUM uncertainty framework, none but the result of least-squares criterion can be got, which is 0.071 mm. Thus, the GUM uncertainty framework slightly underestimates the overall uncertainty by 10%. The results demonstrate that the two methods have different characteristics in task-specific uncertainty evaluations of laser tracker measurements. The results indicate that the Monte Carlo method is a practical tool for applying the principle of propagation of distributions and does not depend on the assumptions and limitations required by the law of propagation of uncertainties(GUF). These features of the Monte Carlo method reduce the risk of an unreliable measurement of uncertainty estimation, particularly in cases of complicated measurement models, without the need to evaluate partial derivatives. In addition, the impact of sampling strategy and evaluation method on the uncertainty of the measurement results can also be taken into account with Monte Carlo method, which plays a guiding role in measurement planning. 展开更多
关键词 task-specific uncertainty laser tracker measurement uncertainty evaluation Monte Carlo method uncertainy framework(GUF)
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Ridge-Forward Quadratic Discriminant Analysis in High-Dimensional Situations
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作者 XIONG Cui ZHANG Jun LUO Xinchao 《Journal of Systems Science & Complexity》 SCIE EI CSCD 2016年第6期1703-1715,共13页
Quadratic discriminant analysis is a classical and popular classification tool,but it fails to work in high-dimensional situations where the dimension p is larger than the sample size n.To address this issue,the autho... Quadratic discriminant analysis is a classical and popular classification tool,but it fails to work in high-dimensional situations where the dimension p is larger than the sample size n.To address this issue,the authors propose a ridge-forward quadratic discriminant(RFQD) analysis method via screening relevant predictors in a successive manner to reduce misclassification rate.The authors use extended Bayesian information criterion to determine the final model and prove that RFQD is selection consistent.Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to examine its performance. 展开更多
关键词 Extended BIC quadratic discriminant analysis ridge-forward selection consistency.
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