依据中国建筑抗震设计规范(GB50011-2010)建立了我国西部具体地区的地震风险概率模型,基于IDA增量动力分析对该地区典型单层钢筋混凝土排架工业厂房结构承载力和地震易损性进行了分析计算,采用三参数分别表征排架厂房结构性和非结构性...依据中国建筑抗震设计规范(GB50011-2010)建立了我国西部具体地区的地震风险概率模型,基于IDA增量动力分析对该地区典型单层钢筋混凝土排架工业厂房结构承载力和地震易损性进行了分析计算,采用三参数分别表征排架厂房结构性和非结构性构件地震损伤并进一步加权计算了单层工业厂房全寿命期地震损失成本,计算中包括结构荷载、材料特征值、外加地震荷载等有关参数变量不确定性采用蒙特卡洛(Monte Carlo Sampling,MCS)随机样本予以考虑,研究得到了该地区单层排架工业厂房结构的地震巨灾保险费用统计值在12.78元~12.86元/年·m^2,验证了技术分析路径的可行性,通过对统计结果值的特征分析,单层钢混排架结构厂房的地震年均成本直接费用CoV偏差在1.11-1.12%之间。展开更多
The paper gives a new approach to statistical simulation and resampling by the use of numbertheoretic methods and representative points. Resempling techniques take samples from an approximate population. The bootstrap...The paper gives a new approach to statistical simulation and resampling by the use of numbertheoretic methods and representative points. Resempling techniques take samples from an approximate population. The bootstrap suggests to use a random sample to form an approximate population. We propose to construct some approximate population distribution by the use of two kinds of representative points, and samples are taken from these approximate distributions. The statistical inference is based on those samples. The statistical inference in this paper involves estimation of mean, variance, skewness, kurtosis, quantile and density of the population distribution. Our results show that the new method can significantly improve the results by the use of Monte Carlo methods.展开更多
文摘依据中国建筑抗震设计规范(GB50011-2010)建立了我国西部具体地区的地震风险概率模型,基于IDA增量动力分析对该地区典型单层钢筋混凝土排架工业厂房结构承载力和地震易损性进行了分析计算,采用三参数分别表征排架厂房结构性和非结构性构件地震损伤并进一步加权计算了单层工业厂房全寿命期地震损失成本,计算中包括结构荷载、材料特征值、外加地震荷载等有关参数变量不确定性采用蒙特卡洛(Monte Carlo Sampling,MCS)随机样本予以考虑,研究得到了该地区单层排架工业厂房结构的地震巨灾保险费用统计值在12.78元~12.86元/年·m^2,验证了技术分析路径的可行性,通过对统计结果值的特征分析,单层钢混排架结构厂房的地震年均成本直接费用CoV偏差在1.11-1.12%之间。
基金supported by the Special Research Foundation from the Chinese Academyof Sciencesthe Beijing Normal University-Hong Kong Baptist University United International College Research(Grant No.R201409)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.11261016)
文摘The paper gives a new approach to statistical simulation and resampling by the use of numbertheoretic methods and representative points. Resempling techniques take samples from an approximate population. The bootstrap suggests to use a random sample to form an approximate population. We propose to construct some approximate population distribution by the use of two kinds of representative points, and samples are taken from these approximate distributions. The statistical inference is based on those samples. The statistical inference in this paper involves estimation of mean, variance, skewness, kurtosis, quantile and density of the population distribution. Our results show that the new method can significantly improve the results by the use of Monte Carlo methods.
