基于广义Hoek-Brown准则的节理岩质边坡可靠性分析

介绍了最新的基于GSI法的广义Hoek-Brown强度准则,以及如何将其应用于节理岩质边坡的稳定性计算。采用基于Hoek-Brown非线性强度准则的Bishop法,结合可靠性分析方法中的蒙特-卡罗模拟法,对隆(林)-百(色)高速公路K123+340岩质高边坡进行了可靠性分析。计算结果表明,单从确定性分析结果来看,该边坡为稳定边坡;但从可靠度的角度而言,为低危险性边坡,需要采取工程措施进行加固。

Reliability analysis of supporting pressure in tunnels based on three-dimensional failure mechanism

Based on nonlinear failure criterion,a three-dimensional failure mechanism of the possible collapse of deep tunnel is presented with limit analysis theory.Support pressure is taken into consideration in the virtual work equation performed under the upper bound theorem.It is necessary to point out that the properties of surrounding rock mass plays a vital role in the shape of collapsing rock mass.The first order reliability method and Monte Carlo simulation method are then employed to analyze the stability of presented mechanism.Different rock parameters are considered random variables to value the corresponding reliability index with an increasing applied support pressure.The reliability indexes calculated by two methods are in good agreement.Sensitivity analysis was performed and the influence of coefficient variation of rock parameters was discussed.It is shown that the tensile strength plays a much more important role in reliability index than dimensionless parameter,and that small changes occurring in the coefficient of variation would make great influence of reliability index.Thus,significant attention should be paid to the properties of surrounding rock mass and the applied support pressure to maintain the stability of tunnel can be determined for a given reliability index.

Study on High Order Perturbation-based Nonlinear Stochastic Finite Element Method for Dynamic Problems

Several algorithms were proposed relating to the development of a framework of the perturbation-based stochastic finite element method (PSFEM) for large variation nonlinear dynamic problems. For this purpose, algorithms and a framework related to SFEM based on the stochastic virtual work principle were studied. To prove the validity and practicality of the algorithms and framework, numerical examples for nonlinear dynamic problems with large variations were calculated and compared with the Monte-Carlo Simulation method. This comparison shows that the proposed approaches are accurate and effective for the nonlinear dynamic analysis of structures with random parameters.

Formalism of Helicity Coupling Amplitudes for J/ψ→π^＋π^-π^0

The formalisms of helicity coupling amplitudes for J/ψ→π^＋π^-π^0 are presented. A detailed discussion is also given on the barrier factor, Breit Wigner, and density matrix. A Monte Carlo simulation of J/ψ→ρ（770）π→π^＋π^-π^0 is carried out. The results show that the p（770） resonance is well reproduced compared with experimental data.

Reduced Expanding Load Method for Simulation-Based Structural System Reliability Analysis

The current situation and difficulties of the structural system reliability analysis are mentioned. Then on the basis of Monte Carlo method and computer simulation, a new analysis method reduced expanding load method (RELM) is presented, which can be used to solve structural reliability problems effectively and conveniently. In this method, the uncertainties of loads, structural material properties and dimensions can be fully considered. If the statistic parameters of stochastic variables are known, by using this method, the probability of failure can be estimated rather accurately. In contrast with traditional approaches,RELM method gives a much better understanding of structural failure frequency and its reliability index β is more meaningful.To illustrate this new idea, a specific example is given.

边坡稳定可靠度分析方法的探讨

在边坡稳定的可靠度分析中 ,导数的求解及可靠度分析方法的选择是十分重要的。笔者分析指出 :可以用简单的差分法来求解导数 ;对于边坡稳定性分析中常用的瑞典条分法及Bishop法 ,当基本变量c、φ属于正态分布时 ,极限状态函数也属于正态分布 ,因此可用中心点法 (MFOSM)求解可靠指标及失效概率 。

FNM method for estimating reliability of existing bridges

Combined with current specifications and stress characteristics of concrete filled steel tubular （CFST） arch bridges, the determination principle of safe-middle-failure threestage mode is given. Accordingly, damage probability and failure probability and the corresponding reliability indices are calculated; a direct relationship between reliability indices and three-stage working status is made. Based on the three-stage working mode, a combined FNM （finite element-neural network- Monte-Carlo simulation） method is put forward to estimate the reliability of existing bridges. According to time-dependent reliability theory, subsequent service time is divided into several stages; minimum samples required by the Monte-Carlo method are generated by random sampling; training samples are calculated by the finite element method, and the training samples are extended by the neural network; failure probability and damage probability are calculated by the Monte-Carlo method. Thus, time dependent reliability indices are obtained, and the working status is judged. A case study is investigated to estimate the reliability of an actual bridge by the FNM method. The bridge is a CFST arch bridge with an 83.6 m span and it has been in operation for 10 years. According to analysis results, in the tenth year, the example bridge is still in safe status. This conclusion is consistent with the facts, which proves the feasibility of the FNM method for estimating the reliability of existing bridges.

Natural ventilation performance of single room building with fluctuating wind speed and thermal mass

Natural ventilation is driven by either buoyancy forces or wind pressure forces or their combinations that inherit stochastic variation into ventilation rates. Since the ventilation rate is a nonlinear function of multiple variable factors including wind speed, wind direction, internal heat source and building structural thermal mass, the conventional methods for quantifying ventilation rate simply using dominant wind direction and average wind speed may not accurately describe the characteristic performance of natural ventilation. From a new point of view, the natural ventilation performance of a single room building under fluctuating wind speed condition using the Monte-Carlo simulation approach was investigated by incorporating building facade thermal mass effect. Given a same hourly turbulence intensity distribution, the wind speeds with 1 rain frequency fluctuations were generated using a stochastic model, the modified GARCH model. Comparisons of natural ventilation profiles, effective ventilation rates, and air conditioning electricity use for a three-month period show statistically significant differences （for 80% confidence interval） between the new calculations and the traditional methods based on hourly average wind speed.

Elbow precision machining technology by abrasive flow based on direct Monte Carlo method

The investigation was carried out on the technical problems of finishing the inner surface of elbow parts and the action mechanism of particles in elbow precision machining by abrasive flow.This work was analyzed and researched by combining theory,numerical and experimental methods.The direct simulation Monte Carlo(DSMC)method and the finite element analysis method were combined to reveal the random collision of particles during the precision machining of abrasive flow.Under different inlet velocity,volume fraction and abrasive particle size,the dynamic pressure and turbulence flow energy of abrasive flow in elbow were analyzed,and the machining mechanism of particles on the wall and the influence of different machining parameters on the precision machining quality of abrasive flow were obtained.The test results show the order of the influence of different parameters on the quality of abrasive flow precision machining and establish the optimal process parameters.The results of the surface morphology before and after the precision machining of the inner surface of the elbow are discussed,and the surface roughness Ra value is reduced from 1.125μm to 0.295μm after the precision machining of the abrasive flow.The application of DSMC method provides special insights for the development of abrasive flow technology.

Fatigue reliability analysis of kiln welded shell

This paper presents a probabilistic reliability method for the welded shell during crack growth. The crack growth model incorporated with a failure assessment diagram（FAD） , which can provides a better estimation of the critical crack length, is developed to describe fatigue failure. All variables for particular welded joints of the shell are studied. Among them, the stress variables are based on the calculated stress by using the finite element （FE） code ANSYS. Fatigue reliability analysis of the welded shell is performed by using the Monte Carlo simulation method. The failure probability curve of the example kiln is significantly useful to determine the repair schedule of shell cracks.

Wind Resource Potential in the Caribbean Archipelago

Climate change threatens the sustainable development and survival of the small Caribbean island nations. The continual rise in the demand and cost of the earth＇s finite hydrocarbon energy reservoir drives these countries to examine the integration of renewable energy to reduce green house gas emissions whilst meeting their electrical energy demands. One possible renewable energy source is wind. Trinidad and Tobago, through its renewable energy policy, is seeking to reliably and economically integrate wind power with its conventional power generation sources. This paper assesses the adequacy of wind power generation at potential sites through the use of auto-regressive modeling and the use of Monte Carlo Simulation to evaluate the well-being indices for the combination of wind and conventional power generation. Two sites in the twin island Republic of Trinidad and Tobago were identified as case studies for the proposed methodology. Analysis of the results indicated that the methodology should be applied to sites with conditions encouraging economic feasibility of wind power generation.

Research on Application of Monte Carlo Simulation in the Income Approach of Asset Valuation A listed Company in China as an Example

The income approach of asset valuation estimates the asset value according to the asset-discounted future earnings or the capitalizing process. As a result, a reasonable prediction of asset-expected future returns has become one of the core contents of the income approach. The forecast on expected future earnings is generally based on many uncertain factors, such as strict conditions of assumption and the complexity of environment. However, the current valuation practice in this aspect varies greatly and sometimes depends on personally experienced judgment of appraisers. Therefore, the obtained valuation results tend to be simplified and absolutized. This paper takes a listed company in China as an example to explore the way of inserting an uncertainty analysis into the prediction of the income approach, and then to obtain a series of valuation results within a certain probability fluctuation range. Finally, it puts forward some suggestions about the Monte Carlo simulation （MCS）.

The geometric factor of high energy protons detector on FY-3 satellite

Geometric factor is the key parameter for inversion of particle spectrum in space particle detection. Traditional geometric factor is obtained through the method of numerical calculation with the actual structure of the detector as the input condition. The degree of accuracy for data inversion is reduced since traditional geometric factor fails to take into account the physical process of interaction between the particle and substance as well as the influence of factors such as the particle interference between different energy channels on the measurement result. Here we propose an improved geometrical factor calculation method, the concept of which is to conduct actual structural modelling of the detector in the GEANT4 program, consider the process of interaction between the particle and substance, obtain the response function of the detector to particles of different energy channels through the method of Monte Carlo simulation, calculate the influence of contaminated particle on the geometrical factor, and finally get the geometrical factors for different energy channels of the detector. The imrpoved geometrical factor obtained through the method has carried out inversion for the data of high energy protons detector on China's FY-3 satellite, the energy spectrum after which is more in line with the power law distribution recognized by space physics. The comparison with the measured result of POES satellite indicates that the FY-3 satellite data are in good accordance with the satellite data, which shows the method may effectively improve the quality of data inversion.

Efficient implementation of the Barnes-Hut octree algorithm for Monte Carlo simulations of charged systems

Computer simulation with Monte Carlo is an important tool to investigate the function and equilibrium properties of many biological and soft matter materials solvable in solvents.The appropriate treatment of long-range electrostatic interaction is essential for these charged systems,but remains a challenging problem for large-scale simulations.We develop an efficient Barnes-Hut treecode algorithm for electrostatic evaluation in Monte Carlo simulations of Coulomb many-body systems.The algorithm is based on a divide-and-conquer strategy and fast update of the octree data structure in each trial move through a local adjustment procedure.We test the accuracy of the tree algorithm,and use it to perform computer simulations of electric double layer near a spherical interface.It is shown that the computational cost of the Monte Carlo method with treecode acceleration scales as log N in each move.For a typical system with ten thousand particles,by using the new algorithm,the speed has been improved by two orders of magnitude from the direct summation.

Copula-Based Monte Carlo Scenarios Generation Method for STOPF Problem

This paper introduces a Monte Carlo scenario generation method based on copula theory for the stochastic optimal power flow （STOPF） problem with wind power. By using copula theory, the scenarios are simulated from multivariable joint distribution but only from their dependency matrix. Hence, the scenarios generated by proposed method can contain flail statistical information of multivariate. Here, the details of simu- lating scenarios for multi-wind-farm are explained with four steps： determine margin of one wind farm, fit the copulas, choose optimal copulas and simulate scenarios by Mote Carlo. Moreover, the producing process of scenarios is demonstrated by two adjacent actual wind farms in China. With the scenarios, the STOPF is con- verted into the same amount deterministic sub OPF models which can be solved by available technology per- fectly. Results using copula theory are compared against results from history samples based on two designs： IEEE 30-bus and IEEE 118-bus systems. The comparison results prove the accuracy of the proposed methodology.

Low-frequency E-field Detection Array(LFEDA)-Construction and preliminary results

In recent years, locating total lightning at the VLF/LF band has become one of the most important directions in lightning detection. The Low-frequency E-field Detection Array(LFEDA) consisting of nine fast antennas was developed by the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences in Guangzhou between 2014 and 2015. This paper documents the composition of the LFEDA and a lightning-locating algorithm that applies to the low-frequency electric field radiated by lightning pulse discharge events(LPDEs). Theoretical simulation and objective assessment of the accuracy and detection efficiency of LFEDA have been done using Monte Carlo simulation and artificial triggered lightning experiment, respectively. The former results show that having a station in the network with a comparatively long baseline improves both the horizontal location accuracy in the direction perpendicular to the baseline and the vertical location accuracy along the baseline. The latter results show that detection efficiencies for triggered lightning flashes and return strokes are 100% and 95%, respectively. The average planar location error for return strokes of triggered lightning flashes is 102 m. By locating LPDEs in thunderstorms, we find that LPDEs are consistent with convective regions as indicated by strong reflectivity columns, and present a reasonable distribution in the vertical direction.In addition, the LFEDA can reveal an image of lightning development through mapping the channels of lightning. Based on three-dimensional locations, the vertical propagation speed of the preliminary breakdown and the changing trend of the leader's speed in an intra-cloud and a cloud-to-ground flash are investigated. The research results show that the LFEDA has the capability for three-dimensional location of lightning, which provides a new technique for researching lightning development characteristics and thunderstorm electricity.

Study of methods for evaluating the probability of multiple site damage occurrences

Two methods currently available for evaluating the probability of Multiple Site Damage(MSD)occurrence were studied in this paper.One of the methods is a probabilistic analysis approach based on the statistical theory and fatigue characteristics of each structural detail,and the other is an approach which defines the initial damage scenario by means of Monte-Carlo simulation,and multiple initial crack scenarios are randomly generated.A modified method based on the Monte-Carlo simulation was proposed in this paper,in which the random fluctuation of the stress was considered to give more accurate evaluation results.In the presented method,the probability of MSD occurrence in a structural element containing multiple details was calculated based on the Monte-Carlo simulation and the p-S-N curve of a single structural detail.Fatigue tests were accomplished using specimens containing 21-similar-details to obtain the fatigue life corresponding to MSD occurrence.Tests on single-detail specimens and static calibration tests were also conducted to get the basic fatigue properties of the material and the degree of stress fluctuation.The aforementioned three methods were compared and validated via the test results.The influence of the stress random fluctuation degree on the probability of MSD occurrence and influence of the distribution types on evaluating the MSD occurrence probability were discussed.