DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF A TYPE OF FINANCIAL RISK CONTAGION MODEL INVOLVING IMMUNITY PERIOD AND SELF-RESCUE

In this paper,we study the dynamics of a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered(SEIR)nancial risk contagion model with time delay.Using stability theory and Hopf bifurcation theory,equilibria stability and Hopf bifurcation are analyzed in detail.Based on the epidemic model,we improve it by taking prior prevention and self-rescue into consideration,conclude pre-ventive intensity and self-rescue capabilities e ect the number of infections.At the same time,the analytical conditions for Hopf bifurcation are obtained,and the relevant results are veri ed by numerical simulations.

浅议我国网上银行的金融监管

网上银行作为21世纪一种新兴的金融业,其低廉的成本和广阔的前景,已越来越得到人们的重视。货币数字化和网络支付体系已经成为当今银行业的操作基础。随着信息化的飞速发展,网上银行在带给人们优质、快捷、全面服务的同时,这种以信息流为主的模式,也对实施金融监管提出了强有力的挑战。本文从网上银行的特征及我国网上银行的发展现状出发,深入分析我国网上银行发展对金融监管的冲击,并提出适时地金融监管对策。

砒砂岩区典型小流域复合侵蚀动力特征分析

以鄂尔多斯高原砒砂岩区水力、风力、冻融交错侵蚀作用为研究对象,选择准格尔旗二老虎沟小流域作为研究流域,对侵蚀环境参数进行定位观测,统计分析水力、风力、冻融作用的年内变化过程。采用数据标准化后的层次分析法,揭示水力-风力-冻融交错作用过程,辨识高侵蚀风险发生的时阈及动力交错模式。研究表明:砒砂岩区复合侵蚀作用可分为风冻交错、风水交错和风水冻交错三个典型动力组合模式,风水交错侵蚀是该地区的主要侵蚀模式;砒砂岩区年内存在三个高侵蚀风险期,即风-冻融交错侵蚀期(2月上旬至3月中下旬),风-水交错侵蚀期(6月中上旬至8月中下旬),水-风-冻融交错侵蚀期(10月中旬至11月中下旬)。

论古汉语中词义的浑沦性

一、引论 从生物学上看,生物界首先只有细胞,然后分裂出双细胞和多细胞,再发展为无种生物。这众多生物的发展基因曾包含在那祖始的单细胞内,那单细胞就具有极大的蕴涵,也就有很大的浑沦性。

The New Financial Management Measure In Forestry Industry

The Private Finance Initiative has provided the framework for the completion of a large number of capital projects managed by the public sector bodies. It secures value for money in the use of public resource and achieves a genuine transfer of risk to the private sector. PFI project shows a lot of benefits for the UK, Chinese Government also would like o use it to improve the public infrastructure.

曹雕精攻书画细琢人生

用自己的眼睛看世界、用自己的心灵感受世界。曹雕游历近三十个国家,带出去的是局限、是己之短,而带回来的则是一种思想的解放。曹雕书画作品丰富,不乏宏篇巨制,更多是逸性怡情、精工细琢之作,耐人品味。他在继承传统的同时又不盲从,勇于打破艺术的框框和不足之处,总能恰到好处地形成自己的风格,能看到他的悟性、学养和不墨守成规。纵观曹雕的山水作品,不难看出他汲取了东方的天人合一的哲学思想以及西方的人文主义情怀。其作品既有造型上的柔和之美,又有中国传统山水的宏大和深邃的意境。

Performance-based seismic financial risk assessment of reinforced concrete frame structures

Engineering facilities subjected to natural hazards(such as winds and earthquakes) will result in risk when any designed system(i.e.capacity) will not be able to meet the performance required(i.e.demand).Risk might be expressed either as a likelihood of damage or potential financial loss.Engineers tend to make use of the former(i.e.damage).Nevertheless,other non-technical stakeholders cannot get useful information from damage.However,if financial risk is expressed on the basis of probable monetary loss,it will be easily understood by all.Therefore,it is necessary to develop methodologies which communicate the system capacity and demand to financial risk,Incremental dynamic analysis(IDA) was applied in a performance-based earthquake engineering context to do hazard analysis,structural analysis,damage analysis and loss analysis of a reinforced concrete(RC) frame structure.And the financial implications of risk were expressed by expected annual loss(EAL).The quantitative risk analysis proposed is applicable to any engineering facilities and any natural hazards.It is shown that the results from the IDA can be used to assess the overall financial risk exposure to earthquake hazard for a given constructed facility.The computational IDA-EAL method will enable engineers to take into account the long-term financial implications in addition to the construction cost.Consequently,it will help stakeholders make decisions.

Two-level fuzzy evaluation for classification of credits

In this paper, classification models are used as tools to make final decision. Fuzzy method provides the mathematical tools for quantitative analysis and dealing with ambiguous concepts. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is used to obtain the weight of each index and enables examiners to visualize the decision process and obtain more reasonable evaluation values to solve some problems. An example is given at the end of this paper.

Local Government Debt Management Solutions

Two rounds of leveraging-up have led to a high debt ratio in the Chinese economy, triggered liquidity mismatch and increased systemic financial risks. The key causes of local government liabilities are soft budget constraints and non-market-based factor allocation. Currently, the risks of local government liabilities are generally controllable. This paper concludes that the long-term solution to managing local government liabilities is to enhance budget constraint and institutional assurance and proposes countermeasures in the reform of urban construction investment and ftnancing mechanisms.

Investment risk analysis of China's wind power industry based on pre-assessment matrix

Wind energy is a clean and sustainable energy, and wind power does not rely on fossil fuels. So there is no fuel price risk, and it, of course, does not include the environmental costs, such as carbon emissions. Because of these unique advantages, wind power has gradually become an important part of the strategy of sustainable development in China. Now with the growing voices on global greenhouse gas emission reduction, and as a clean and efficient energy, wind power has huge potential in combating climate change, energy security pressures and the needs for energy. Wind power in China began to develop from the 1980s. In the first 20 years, the speed of development was slow; but since 2004, it has had an extremely rapid growth.This paper, in order to study the development mechanism of China＆amp;amp;amp;#39;s wind power industry, investigated and analyzed the status quo of wind power industry in China, and then found that （1） the development trend of wind power industry in China appears exponential growth; （2） China＆amp;amp;amp;#39;s installed capacity of wind power is still smaller than that os some other countries; （3） new subsidy policies bring developing opportunities to wind power industry in China; （4） the sectors of wind power industry are in unbalanced growing; （5） the owners of proposed wind farms are too optimistic though the built wind farm had many problems. In addition, by using the methodology of Game Theory, this paper has also constructed the matrix of pre-assessing risks of China＆amp;amp;amp;#39;s wind power industry to further discuss the potential risk factors within China＆amp;amp;amp;#39;s wind power industry as risk factors of wind farm construction, risk factors of production of wind turbines, risk factors of parts and components manufacturing industry under risk indicators like R＆amp;amp;amp;amp;D, patents, the domestic policy, the international policy, the quality of products and the market regulation, in order to provide a scientific assessment and self-assessment tool for investors or implementers, and also to promote the further development of the wind power industry.

Banks＇ Earnings, Risks and Returns in China

This study aims to find the effect of financial risks, price risks and market risks on the Earning Response Coefficients （ERC） for China Commercial Banks. The research methodologies use the traditional cumulative abnormal returns and the unexpected earning as the main dependent and independent variables. The evidences show that： （1） There is a strong returns-to-earnings relation for banks; （2） The liquidity risk has information content beyond earnings changes in the returns-to-earnings relation. This probably due to the reason that managers of banks find the level of liquidity that fulfilled the need of investors and at the same time earns good profits for the banks.

Coal price fluctuations and the impact on financial risk Evidence from China＇s coal listed companies

With the rise of coal price, the proportion of loss-making enterprises shows an upward trend in China＇s coal industry. This paper uses Altman Z-Score model to measure financial risk of 19 listed companies in the coal industry in A-share market from 1995 to 2007. Empirical results show that Year-Based price index of coal price has a negative correlation with the financial risk but has no significance, and coal chain price has a significant negative correlation with the financial risk. Further research indicates that enterprises increase bad investment, and a lot of debts caused by short-term rise in coal prices. The results also show that the financial risk in the coal industry declines with the rise of GDP growth rate and increases with the rise of inflation rate.

Risks Matrixes Risks Assessment Tools of Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises： The Case of Latvia

The enterprises need to assess the risk dynamic of financial instability and its impact on small and medium-sized enterprises＇ development, because it is important for enterprises to extend commercial activity and to open a new structural subdivision. We have researched types of risks, their identification, classification, and assessment possibilities in activities of small and medium-sized enterprises. We have used our own algorithm of identification, classification, and assessment of enterprises＇ risks. The goal of this research is to study the economic and financial risks＇ impact on small and medium-sized enterprises＇ development in Latvia. For study purpose, we have carried out the questionnaire of representative small and medium-sized enterprises about the economic and financial risks＇ impact on enterprises＇ development in Latvia. We have created classification of Latvian services sectors＇ economic and financial risks in the period from 2011 to 2012. Those risks have been included in the questionnaire. The risks matrix is a quantitative assessment tool of risks. We have created Latvian service sector economic and financial risks matrix. We have arranged risks by their sizes of possible losses for enterprises. For each risk has been assessed its probability of realization. We have created Latvian accommodations （hotel） and food services technological process risks map. Several parts of the risk map （segments） make it possible to assess each type of the risk separately in its segment. Risks matrix can be used to choose enterprises＇ strategy of risk management. Enterprise＇s strategy of risk management is developed by analysing zones of risk level.

Empirical study on mutual fund objective classification

Mutual funds are usually classified on the basis of their objectives. If the activities of mutual funds are consistent with their stated objectives, investors may look at the latter as signals of their risks and incomes. This work analyzes mutual fund objective classification in China by statistical methods of distance analysis and discriminant analysis; and examines whether the stated investment objectives of mutual funds adequately represent their attributes to investors. That is, if mutual funds adhere to their stated objectives, attributes must be heterogeneous between investment objective groups and homogeneous within them. Our conclusion is to some degree, the group of optimized exponential funds is heterogeneous to other groups. As a whole, there exist no significant differences between different objective groups; and 50% of mutual funds are not consistent with their objective groups.

Identification and prevention research at the present stage of our corporate financial risk

Corporate finance activities recur throughout the entire process of production and operation. The financial risk is a signal, which can fully reflect the company＇ s consolidated operating conditions. Therefore it requires business owners to conduct regular financial analysis, establish risk awareness, establish effective risk precautionary handling mechanism, strengthen financial risk control, prevent financial crises, establish early warning indicator system, and make proper financial risk decisions. Firstly, a correct understanding of the financial risk from the start, its meaning, characteristics, and so do the reasons for the formation of the exposition clear what financial risks ; Secondly, the financial risk of the formation of a variety of reasons were analyzed.

Research on the Reasonable Strategy of the Development of Commercial Banks under the Perspective of P2P Internet Financial Risks

In this paper, we conduct research on the reasonable strategy of the development of commercial banks under the perspective of P2P Internet financial risks. P2P financial model mainly for China＇ s small and medium enterprises and individuals to provides financing services. Generally need to use e-commerce professional network platform lending to help both sides to establish lending relationship and complete the related formalities. Traditional commercial banks need reform to keep up with the novel financial tools related to the Internet financing which will be discussed below.

Evaluation on the Process and Effects of Monetary Policies to Chinese Real Estate Market

The process of China＇s monetary policy regulation on the real estate market can be roughly divided into four stages since 1998. The first and the third stages are to raise housing price, while the second and the fourth stages are to curb housing price. There are both successful experiences and failure lessons in these stages of regulation. The present monetary policy instruments should be based on quantitative instruments, while the price instruments shall serve only as a supplement. We should use comprehensive polices including land policies, fiscal policies, legal and political means to develop a variety of specific and flexible policies to prevent financial risks, so that to fully play the important role of real estate market.

Research on Risk Analysis and Avoidance of Private Financing

Private financing is a supplementary of financial services and capital market allocation of resources, and it is also an important financing channel for SMEs and an important factor which has great impact on economic and financial operations. However, with the growing scale of private financing, there are large potential risks which affect the normal operation of private financing, and even affect the long-term development of financial markets. This paper analyzes the current situation of private financing and risks existing in current private financing, and propose some ways to avoid the risk of private financing, to provide a theoretical basis for future research on private financing risks.

Research on the financial risk management system of listed corporations in China

In recent years, the number of the listing corporations in China is increasing, and the promotion of the national economic development is also more obvious. But in the process, because of the short time onto the market and the lack of the expvrience, some of the listed companies also cannot be compared with the enterprises in the western developed countries in a large extent. Especially in the aspect of the financial management, there are many defects. For example, the control efforts of the financial risks arc inadequate, and the awareness of the management personnel and the employees on the risks is weak, and so on In this case, the listed corporations must strengthen the management of the company＇s financial risks, develop the more comprehensive financial risk managernent system, and thus ensurc that the companies can have the healthy, stable and sustainable development.

The Risk Evaluation of Agricultural High-tech Investment Project

The agricultural high-teeh investment project （AHIP） is eharaeterized by technology-intensive, high risk and great profit. This article analyzes essential factors of the risks of the agricultural high-tech investment projects and the traditional risk evaluation method of agrtcultral projects. We think that the applications of the sensitivity, analysis and probability ore defer. Therefore; this article introduces a structural model to evaluate the risks of the agricultural high-tech investment projects and the system of the concrete evaluation indexes.