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基于大数据分析的电解铝生产能力预测研究
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作者 肖文富 余春艳 《科技创新与生产力》 2024年第1期22-25,共4页
本研究采用大数据分析方法对电解铝生产能力进行预测。首先收集与整理相关数据,然后通过机器学习、时间序列分析等方法构建预测模型。验证结果显示,所构建的模型具有较高的准确性和可靠性。分析表明,原材料价格、政策变化和市场需求等... 本研究采用大数据分析方法对电解铝生产能力进行预测。首先收集与整理相关数据,然后通过机器学习、时间序列分析等方法构建预测模型。验证结果显示,所构建的模型具有较高的准确性和可靠性。分析表明,原材料价格、政策变化和市场需求等因素对电解铝生产能力具有显著影响。本研究可为电解铝行业提供有益的生产决策参考,为未来研究方向和实际应用奠定基础。 展开更多
关键词 电解铝 生产能力 大数据分析 预测模型 关键因素 行业决策
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绩效期望落差对制造企业进入房地产行业的影响研究 被引量:6
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作者 宋渊洋 匡倩 陈伟伟 《管理学报》 CSSCI 北大核心 2021年第1期42-51,共10页
以2008~2017年中国制造业上市公司为样本,实证考察了绩效期望落差对企业进入房地产行业的影响。研究发现:绩效期望落差越大,企业面临的效率威胁越严重,越可能为改善业绩而进入房地产行业;绩效期望落差对进入房地产行业的影响强度,与房... 以2008~2017年中国制造业上市公司为样本,实证考察了绩效期望落差对企业进入房地产行业的影响。研究发现:绩效期望落差越大,企业面临的效率威胁越严重,越可能为改善业绩而进入房地产行业;绩效期望落差对进入房地产行业的影响强度,与房地产行业利润率和企业持有土地没有显著差异;民营和现金流权比例高的控股股东,对绩效期望落差带来的效率威胁更敏感,更可能通过进入房地产行业,以缓解绩效期望落差带来的效率威胁,导致绩效期望落差对进入房地产行业的影响更强;企业冗余资源越多,进入房地产行业越可行,绩效期望落差对进入房地产行业的影响越强。进一步的分析发现,绩效期望落差对企业进入房地产行业的程度也有正向影响。 展开更多
关键词 绩效期望落差 效率威胁 行业进入决策 房地产行业
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脚踏实地把发动机行业工作搞上去
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作者 陈继熊 《车辆与动力技术》 北大核心 1989年第4期2-5,共4页
本文从军用发动机行业振兴出发,着重从专业研究所角度,提出管理工作应重点抓下列几点:建立军民结合的体制,必须要做到产品上的军民结合;自行研制为主,在全力消化引进技术的同时,有选择地引进先进的适用技术;局部竞争,大力协作;加强人才... 本文从军用发动机行业振兴出发,着重从专业研究所角度,提出管理工作应重点抓下列几点:建立军民结合的体制,必须要做到产品上的军民结合;自行研制为主,在全力消化引进技术的同时,有选择地引进先进的适用技术;局部竞争,大力协作;加强人才开发,要重视培养年青人和发挥老技术人员的第二创造佳期的作用;提高本行业决策层的决策水平。 展开更多
关键词 行业振兴 新技术预研 第二创造佳期 行业决策 军民结合
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基于灰色系统理论的行业特征对高技术企业技术创新能力的影响研究——以我国2006~2008年高技术产业数据为例 被引量:9
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作者 李武威 《工业技术经济》 CSSCI 北大核心 2012年第6期151-160,共10页
本文应用灰色系统理论考察行业特征对我国高技术企业技术创新能力的影响。(1)在构建的企业技术创新能力评价指标体系的基础上,采用我国2006~2008年高技术产业数据,应用整体性灰色关联分析方法识别了影响我国高技术企业技术创新能力的... 本文应用灰色系统理论考察行业特征对我国高技术企业技术创新能力的影响。(1)在构建的企业技术创新能力评价指标体系的基础上,采用我国2006~2008年高技术产业数据,应用整体性灰色关联分析方法识别了影响我国高技术企业技术创新能力的主要因素和次要因素;(2)应用灰色局势决策方法对我国各高技术产业的技术创新能力进行了排序;(3)应用GM(0,N)模型量化分析了行业特征对我国高技术企业技术创新能力的影响。研究结果表明:R&D密集度、技术密集度、行业开放程度、外资企业规模比重等对我国高技术企业技术创新能力的影响相对显著,而国有企业规模比重、市场集中度、本土企业消化吸收能力等对我国高技术企业技术创新能力的影响相对较弱。根据研究结论,为提升我国高技术企业的技术创新能力,本文进一步提出了针对性的政策建议。 展开更多
关键词 行业特征技术创新能力灰色关联分析灰色局势决策GM(0 N)模型
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单一值预报向概率预报转变的价值:谈谈概率预报的检验和应用 被引量:57
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作者 杜钧 邓国 《气象》 CSCD 北大核心 2010年第12期10-18,共9页
基于大气系统的非线性和复杂性,加上初值和模式等本身无法避免的一些不确定性,天气预报从单一值的确定论向多值的概率论转变不但符合气象科学的实际也是更好地服务社会之必需。但是这种转变的理性思考对很多用户、甚至气象工作者自己都... 基于大气系统的非线性和复杂性,加上初值和模式等本身无法避免的一些不确定性,天气预报从单一值的确定论向多值的概率论转变不但符合气象科学的实际也是更好地服务社会之必需。但是这种转变的理性思考对很多用户、甚至气象工作者自己都不是很清楚。为了帮助人们理解和加速这一转变,本文就这种转变所面临的一些普遍困惑谈一些想法。作为促成这一转变的中心技术集合预报——有关的问题已经在本文的姐妹篇中作了讨论。在本文中将主要讨论另外几个问题,即如何衡量一个概率预报的好坏?如何应用概率信息来作决策?以及为什么概率预报比单一值决定论预报更有经济价值?为了易懂,本文用浅显的说理结合举例的方式进行阐述,以便读者特别是广大预报员和用户能在实际中运用。 展开更多
关键词 预报不确定性 概率预报 检验 气象用户 经济价值 花费-损失比 行业气象决策模式
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关于烟草零售户到货确认管理的研究 被引量:1
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作者 徐永祥 《科技创新导报》 2015年第21期207-208,共2页
该文以卷烟配送签收业务为核心,以物联网、移动互联网为技术手段,建设烟草商业企业零售户到货确认管理,实现从卷烟塑模包装数字化标识、配送装车、卷烟配送到零售户到货确认、配送服务评价的全方位、全过程数字化监控和快速业务执行,达... 该文以卷烟配送签收业务为核心,以物联网、移动互联网为技术手段,建设烟草商业企业零售户到货确认管理,实现从卷烟塑模包装数字化标识、配送装车、卷烟配送到零售户到货确认、配送服务评价的全方位、全过程数字化监控和快速业务执行,达致"监管信息化、全程追溯化、查询便捷化、产业现代化"的效果,彻底解决好"最好一公里"的问题,全面实现"卷烟上水平"。 展开更多
关键词 行业卷烟生产经营决策管理系统 两打三扫 零售户 到货确认 实时监控
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Capping stack:An industry in the making 被引量:2
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作者 Jack Chen Li Xunke +1 位作者 Xie Wenhui Kang Yongtian 《Engineering Sciences》 EI 2013年第4期17-23,共7页
This paper gives an overview of recent development of the marine well containment system (MWCS) after BP Macondo subsea well blowout occurred on April 20,2010 in the Gulf of Mexico. Capping stack,a hard-ware utilized ... This paper gives an overview of recent development of the marine well containment system (MWCS) after BP Macondo subsea well blowout occurred on April 20,2010 in the Gulf of Mexico. Capping stack,a hard-ware utilized to contain blowout well at or near the wellhead is the center piece of MWCS. Accessibility to the dedicated capping stacks is gradually becoming a pre-requirement to obtain the permit for offshore drilling/workover, and the industry for manufacturing,maintenance,transportation and operation of the capping stack is in the making. 展开更多
关键词 marine well containment system capping stack offshore drilling/workover BLOWOUT
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A dynamic model for railway freight overbooking 被引量:2
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作者 冯芬玲 张佳琪 郭晓峰 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS CSCD 2015年第8期3257-3264,共8页
In order to apply overbooking idea in Chinese railway freight industry to improve revenue, a Markov decision process(dynamic programming) model for railway freight reservation was formulated and the overbooking limit ... In order to apply overbooking idea in Chinese railway freight industry to improve revenue, a Markov decision process(dynamic programming) model for railway freight reservation was formulated and the overbooking limit level was proposed as a control policy. However, computing the dynamic programming treatment needs six nested loops and this will be burdensome for real-world problems. To break through the calculation limit, the properties of value function were analyzed and the overbooking protection level was proposed to reduce the calculating quantity. The simulation experiments show that the overbooking protection level for the lower-fare class is higher than that for the higher-fare class, so the overbooking strategy is nested by fare class. Besides, by analyzing the influence on the overbooking strategy of freight arrival probability and cancellation probability, the proposed approach is efficient and also has a good application prospect in reality. Also, compared with the existing reservation(FCFS), the overbooking strategy performs better in the fields of vacancy reduction and revenue improvement. 展开更多
关键词 revenue management railway freight OVERBOOKING dynamic model
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Substitution or Complementarity Between "Soft" Information and "Hard" Information: Why and Which Effect on Bank Profitability?
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作者 Herve Alexandre Aymen Smondel 《Journal of Modern Accounting and Auditing》 2012年第6期785-826,共42页
The Basel II committee sets their customers. This new up directives encouraging banks to use internal scores in order to assess the risk of form of information competes with the existing ones. Small and medium-sized e... The Basel II committee sets their customers. This new up directives encouraging banks to use internal scores in order to assess the risk of form of information competes with the existing ones. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are most concerned by these new stakes, due to the lack of transparency. The aim of this paper is to understand the determinants of the choice between substitution and complementarity between the two types of information: "soft" and "hard", to test a potential effect of this choice on the banking performance and to describe which variables are involved in the decision-making process. The originality of this work is to try to quantify the information costs and to use it as a variable which is affecting the adopted choice. 展开更多
关键词 Basel directives "soft" information "hard" information credit decision-making process bankperformance bank-SMEs relationship
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Sustainability Impact on Construction Management in Developing Countries: Iraq as a Case Study
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《Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture》 2012年第4期403-414,共12页
Sustainable development contributes to the economic and social advancement of construction projects. Ignoring sustainability during the cost estimating process associated with evaluation phase develops many problems o... Sustainable development contributes to the economic and social advancement of construction projects. Ignoring sustainability during the cost estimating process associated with evaluation phase develops many problems of conventional decision methodology used in construction industry in the most of developing countries. This research focuses on sustainability which is the key factor in all decision making in design and construction processes. Therefore, Iraqi construction industry should respond to sustainability as a leading indicator of its infrastructure rebuilding. The construction management and sustainability could help to manage the rebuilding of the destroyed public infrastructure during the disaster wars periods passed thru thirty years ago and also to modernize of private buildings and plants. Field study has been carried out by adopting personal interviews and questionnaires conducted with experts, experienced consultants and designers working in many design organizations. The data collected has been analyzed and the results obtained show a clear weakness in the field of sustainability understanding, practicing and implementation. Moreover, the design work in Iraq is suffering from a lack of scientific techniques and a lack in experience in the domain of sustainability field. This will take an integrated approach to study the impact of sustainability on construction management which encompasses both public and private sector perspectives for building and engineering construction, and the roles played by all the participants in the construction team (owners, contractors, design professionals, and other supporting professionals). 展开更多
关键词 Sustainability concepts CONSTRUCTION management ENGINEERING developing countries Iraq
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A Bayesian Approach to Robot Group Control
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作者 Tomislav Stipancic Bojan Jerbic Petar Curkovic 《Computer Technology and Application》 2011年第9期716-723,共8页
This paper describes a Bayesian approach to robot group control applied in industrial applications. The proposed model is based on well-known concepts of Ubiquitous Computing and can enable some degree of contextual p... This paper describes a Bayesian approach to robot group control applied in industrial applications. The proposed model is based on well-known concepts of Ubiquitous Computing and can enable some degree of contextual perception of the environment. Compared with classical industrial robots, usually preprogrammed for a limited number of operations/actions, the system based on this model can react in uncertain situations and scenarios. The model combines ontology to describe the specific domain of interest and decision-making mechanisms based on Bayesian Networks to enable the work of a single robot without human intervention by learning Behavioral Patterns of other robots in the group. The described model is designed to be expressive enough to provide adequate level of abstractions needed for making timely appropriate actions and respecting the current application. 展开更多
关键词 ROBOTICS Bayesian networks (BN) descriptive logic (DL) ONTOLOGY context assembly.
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Developing an Assessment Model for Factors Affecting the Quality in the Construction Industry
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作者 Usama Hamed Issa 《Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture》 2012年第3期364-371,共8页
Quality is considered as one of the most important elements in the construction industry. The factors affecting quality in the construction industry should be assessed. This paper aims to introduce a new model to asse... Quality is considered as one of the most important elements in the construction industry. The factors affecting quality in the construction industry should be assessed. This paper aims to introduce a new model to assess these factors. The model is namely Fuzzy Assessment Model for Quality (FAMQ). Fuzzy set theory provides a useful way to deal with ill-defined and complex problems in a decision-making environment that incorporates vagueness. The proposed model employs the combined effect of both; the factors probability of occurrence and their impacts on the quality of construction. Twenty five logical rules for each factor were implemented in the model. The model was evaluated using data that collected from the infrastructure projects in Egypt. It was applied to many factors that affect the quality of this kind of projects as a case study. The results of the study proved that the proposed model can be used successfully in the assessment of factors affecting quality in the construction industry. In addition, the results provided a platform of useful assessment reference to those infrastructure's finns, who plan to establish their businesses in Egypt. 展开更多
关键词 Quality in construction FUZZY Egypt.
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Information on Financial Statements for Loan Decision-Making of Commercial Banks in Vietnam
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作者 Mai Thi Hoang Minh 《Journal of Modern Accounting and Auditing》 2015年第2期86-92,共7页
Financial statements (FS) are tools which provide information to users for making business decisions. Among the organizations, banks are the firms which conducted and did business with risks. In particular, commerci... Financial statements (FS) are tools which provide information to users for making business decisions. Among the organizations, banks are the firms which conducted and did business with risks. In particular, commercial banks continue to play a dominant role in the whole system, and local commercial banks still have an edge in its widespread network across the country over foreign banks. This article is going to present the survey which clarifies the role of FS in commercial banks' loan decisions in Vietnam. Moreover, this paper also discusses FS's quality currently, thereby making suggestions for enterprises to enhance the usefulness of accounting information in borrowing activities. This paper has taken performance with 74 official employees in commercial banks in Vietnam. The results indicated the qualitative characteristics of banks when disclosing the financial statements. This article also gave the six oriented solutions to improvement of the loan decision-making by banks. 展开更多
关键词 usefulness of financial statement (FS) accounting information quality loan decisions BANKING
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CSO to Solve Optimal Demand for TOU Customers in Power Systems
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作者 Wei-Nong Chen Zheng-Yi Chen Jung-Chin Chen 《Journal of Energy and Power Engineering》 2015年第7期660-667,共8页
The aim of this research is to study the optimal demand decision for the Taiwan Residents industries through CSO (cat swarm optimization) algorithm. The five formulations of optimal demand are developed to solve opt... The aim of this research is to study the optimal demand decision for the Taiwan Residents industries through CSO (cat swarm optimization) algorithm. The five formulations of optimal demand are developed to solve optimal contract capacity for TOU (time of use) customer. Results indicated that, the CSO algorithm is highly helpful to Taiwan Residents industries on the optimal demand decision. Also the CSO is superior to PSO (particle swarm optimization) in the fast convergence and better performance to find the global best solution in the same iterations. 展开更多
关键词 CSO peak loading optimal demand TOU load management
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Distribution of Market Share in the World Soft-Drink Industry
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作者 Femando Buendia Cristina Eccius 《Journal of Physical Science and Application》 2013年第2期123-126,共4页
The distribution of market shares within an industry is a relevant performance measure for managers and policy makers, for it allow to determine whether a given industry is competitive or not. Usually, the perfect com... The distribution of market shares within an industry is a relevant performance measure for managers and policy makers, for it allow to determine whether a given industry is competitive or not. Usually, the perfect competition model is the reference to judge the efficiency of markets. However, there is enough empirical evidence that shows that one of the most evident features of global firms is that both their size and market are Zipf-distributed. In this paper, we show that the distribution of market shares in the world cola-drink market is skewed, but it does not follow Zipf's law, thus it is inadequate to generalize it to any kind of market. 展开更多
关键词 Market share Zipf distribution market power.
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