基于可能性决策的敌对危机行动预测与仿真

可能性决策能较好地应对军事领域常常出现的概率难以获得,或者强调"出奇制胜"而有意规避概率风险的情形,是解决知识不完备情况下敌对行动预测的有力手段。从可能性理论基本公理体系出发,结合动态规划方法,提出并证明可能性决策的最优化定理,给出多步条件下可能性决策的实现算法,结合危机条件下敌对行动预测的范例和仿真分析,并与传统概率风险决策进行比较,体现可能性决策的优越性,为该方法的推广应用创造条件。

基于行动预测的支持移动自组网QoS的路由方案

从研究高斯-马尔可夫运动模型出发,提出了一个可用于预测移动自组网中节点间最大链路有效时间的模型。从提供QoS路由度量和改进被动路由协议两个方面阐述了提供移动自组网QoS支持的机制。仿真实验表明,新的路由方案具有网络吞吐量大、抖动小和时延可控制的特点。

基于对机器人的状态行为预测和行动纠正的方法研究

本研究为了实现对动态机器人预测的必要性提出了对状态行动的预测。根据现已提出的在线支持向量回归机实时性逐次预测的方法为基础,由于预测的定义中没有提到状态及行动的概念,因此,本论文提出根据机器人的现状态和行动预测出新环境下的未来状态,然后通过现状态和行动预测值,实现状态再定义的观点。本文为了实现对状态行动预测的必要性,解释说明了关于在线的支持向量回归机的改良方法,并说明状态反馈控制的方法对状态行动的预测。首先将预测每1单元时间下的状态定义为逐一状态预测,在此基础上进行扩展,在n单元时间下,预测状态定义为长期状态预测。因此,预测值优先度的行动补正方法是预测机器人对状态行动中采用最适合行动的补正方法。

Interference management via access control and mobility prediction in two-tier heterogeneous networks

Abstract： Two-tier heterogeneous networks （HetNets）, where the current cellular networks, i.e., macrocells, are overlapped with a large number of randomly distributed femtocells, can potentially bring significant benefits to spectral utilization and system capacity. The interference management and access control for open and closed femtocells in two-tier HetNets were focused. The contributions consist of two parts. Firstly, in order to reduce the uplink interference caused by MUEs （macrocell user equipments） at closed femtocells, an incentive mechanism to implement interference mitigation was proposed. It encourages femtoeells that work with closed-subscriber-group （CSG） to allow the interfering MUEs access in but only via uplink, which can reduce the interference significantly and also benefit the marco-tier. The interference issue was then studied in open-subscriber-group （OSG） femtocells from the perspective of handover and mobility prediction. Inbound handover provides an alternative solution for open femtocells when interference turns up, while this accompanies with PCI （physical cell identity） confusion during inbound handover. To reduce the PCI confusion, a dynamic PCI allocation scheme was proposed, by which the high handin femtocells have the dedicated PCI while the others share the reuse PCIs. A Markov chain based mobility prediction algorithm was designed to decide whether the femtoeell status is with high handover requests. Numerical analysis reveals that the UL interference is managed well for the CSG femtocell and the PCI confusion issue is mitigated greatly in OSG femtocell compared to the conventional approaches.

Prediction of Planing Craft Motion Based on Grey System Theory

In order to minimize the harm caused by the instability of a planing craft, a motion prediction model is essential. This paper analyzed the feasibility of using an MGM（1,N） model in grey system theory to predict planing craft motion and carried out the numerical simulation experiment. According to the characteristics of planing craft motion, a recurrence formula was proposed of the parameter matrix of an MGMfl,N） model. Using this formula, data can be updated in real-time without increasing computational complexity significantly. The results of numerical simulation show that using an MGM（1,N） model to predict planing motion is feasible and useful for prediction. So the method proposed in this study can reflect the planing craft motion mechanism successfully, and has rational and effective functions of forecasting and analyzing trends.

Assessment of the Risk of Violence in Portuguese Psychiatric Settings Using the Broset Violence Checklist

The risk of violence in psychiatric settings implies the assessment of dynamic predictors to adjust nursing interventions. So as to identify the pattern of aggressive behaviors, assess the dynamic predictors of violence in hospitalized patients, and analyze the predictive qualities of the Brcset Violence Checklist （BVC）, an exploratory/descriptive study was conducted in psychiatric wards in Coimbra, Portugal. The instruments used were： the staff observation aggression scale-revised （SOAS-R）, visual analogue scale （VAS）, and the BVC. For the period of a month, 64 patients with a mean age of 29 years, unemployed, and with psychotic disorders were observed. In this group, 13 people displayed 15 aggressive behaviors of moderate severity, which had consequences for nurses; they were triggered by the denial of something through verbal aggression and controlled by non-restrictive measures. The most common predictors of violence were irritability and boisterousness. It was also concluded that the BVC shows good predictive characteristics （sensitivity and specificity） of violence, thus, it may be considered as a useful and effective instrument to assess the risk of violence and, consequently, to adjust nursing interventions to prevent this phenomenon.

Mixture temperature prediction of waxy oil–water two-phase system flowing near wax appearance temperature

Temperature sensitivity of waxy crude oils makes it difficult to study their flow behaviour in the presence of water especially near their wax appearance temperature （WAT）. In this study a method was proposed and implemented to mitigate such difficulties which was applied in predicting mixture temperatures （Tin） of a typical Malaysian waxy crude oil and water flow in a horizontal pipe. To this end, two analytical models were derived firstly from calorimetry equation which based on developed two correlations for defining crude oil heat capacity actualized from the existed specific heat capacities of crude oils. The models were then applied for a set of experiments to reach the defined three predetermined Tm （26 ℃, 28 ℃ and 30 ℃）. The comparison between the predicted mixture temperatures （Tin,1 and Tin,2） from the two models and the experimental results displayed acceptable absolute average errors （0.80% 0.62%, 0.53% for model 1; 0,74%, 0.54%, 0.52% for model 2）. Moreover, the average errors for both models are in the range of standard error limits （4-0,75Z） according to ASTM E230. Conclusively, the proposed model showed the ease of obtaining mixture temperatures close to WAT as predetermined with accuracy of ± 0.5 ℃approximately for over 84% of the examined cases. The method is seen as a practical reference point to further study the flow behaviour of waxy crudes in oil-water two-phase flow system near sensitive temperatures.

Variation in the emission rate of sounds in a captive group of false killer whales Pseudorca crassidens during feedings: possible food anticipatory vocal activity?

This study examines whether a group of captive false killer whales(P seudorca crassidens) showed variations in the vocal rate around feeding times. The high level of motivation to express appetitive behaviors in captive animals may lead them to respond with changes of the behavioral activities during the time prior to food deliveries which are referred to as food anticipatory activity. False killer whales at Qingdao Polar Ocean World(Qingdao, China) showed signifi cant variations of the rates of both the total sounds and sound classes(whistles, clicks, and burst pulses) around feedings. Precisely, from the Transition interval that recorded the lowest vocalization rate(3.40 s/m/d), the whales increased their acoustic emissions upon trainers' arrival(13.08 s/m/d). The high rate was maintained or intensifi ed throughout the food delivery(25.12 s/m/d), and then reduced immediately after the animals were fed(9.91 s/m/d). These changes in the false killer whales sound production rates around feeding times supports the hypothesis of the presence of a food anticipatory vocal activity. Although sound rates may not give detailed information regarding referential aspects of the animal communication it might still shed light about the arousal levels of the individuals during different social or environmental conditions. Further experiments should be performed to assess if variations of the time of feeding routines may affect the vocal activity of cetaceans in captivity as well as their welfare.