“一带一路”西亚地区的人民币区域化研究——基于五变量SVAR模型

为研究“一带一路”沿线国家人民币区域化的可行性,本文构建了一个五变量SVAR模型,结合最优货币区理论对中国与西亚区域九个国家之间的货币一体化程度进行实证分析。首先对各冲击系数的相关性进行分析,其次将各国的冲击规模和冲击调整速度进行了比较。结果表明虽然“一带一路”西亚地区不满足建立一个统一的货币区,货币一体化程度不高,人民币区域化的经济基础较为薄弱,但可以率先在“中国、巴林、亚美尼亚”和“中国与沙特阿拉伯”两组国家建立子货币区。本文的研究旨在对“一带一路”背景下在西亚地区早日实现人民币区域化做出有益探讨。

Regional analysis and sustainable development： Application of a synthetic sustainability indicator to Galicia and the European Union

In general, investigations carried out to date regarding/measuring systems/systems of measurement of sustainable development present two peculiarities： Either they are of a limited practical nature or they do not allow for comparisons between different areas or economies. Global synthetic indicators are an exception to the above; however they have been scarcely developed. This article designs an index of said characteristics, which is subsequently applied to all the countries within the European Union and to the region of Galicia.

The provenance of Gansu Group in Longxi region and implications for tectonics and paleoclimate

The Neogene sediments of Gansu Group from northwestern China contain eolian and fluvial deposits.The origins of these sediments are very important for exploring the onset of Asian inland aridification,the pattern of paleo-atmospheric circulation,and the regional tectonics and geomorphic evolution during the Miocene.Here we present detrital-zircon age spectra of typical eolian and fluvial deposits from highlands and subsidence basin,and compare them with those of surrounding eroded mountain(such as the West Qinling Mountains and Liupan Mountains)materials and Quaternary loess derived from the Asian inlands.The results reveal that(1)the detrital-zircon age spectrum of the Miocene eolian sample is remarkably different from the eroded materials of the West Qinling Mountains and the Miocene fluvial deposits from Tianshui region,but very similar to the Quaternary loess deposits.This indicates that the provenance of Miocene eolian sediments is similar with the Quaternary loess,and thus further confirms the previous conclusions that the distribution of Asian arid lands and the pattern of atmospheric circulation during the Miocene are broadly similar with the Quaternary.(2)The detrital-zircon age spectrum of the fluvial deposits(with age about 11.5 Ma)from Tianshui region is different from the eroded materials of West Qinling Mountains,but similar with that of the Liupan Mountains to the east,which may suggest that the Liupan Mountains have already been exhumed by11.5 Ma.

The 5400 a BP extreme weakening event of the Asian summer monsoon and cultural evolution

We explored a time series of the Asian summer monsoon(ASM) variability during the transition period from the middle to the late Holocene in the marginal Asian monsoon region. We used an absolutely dated ^(230)Th record with only a ~20-year dating error, and oxygen isotope data with an 8-year average temporal resolution from the top 22-mm segment of stalagmite WXB07-4 from Wanxiang Cave, western Loess Plateau. The ASM intensity weakened gradually from 6420 to 4920 a BP, which was mainly characterized by three phases:(1) a strengthening phase with a higher precipitation amount between 6420 and 6170 a BP;(2) a smooth fluctuating interval during 6170–5700 a BP; and(3) a sudden extreme weakening period from 5700 to 4920 a BP. Interestingly, the extreme weakening interval of the ASM occurred during the period between 5700 and 4920 a BP, an abrupt change dated at 5430 a BP, which is known as the 5400 a BP, or 5.4 ka BP, event. The period included 290 years of gradual weakening, and 350 years of slow strengthening. This was synchronous with some cave records from the Asian monsoon region within dating errors. Comparing with Chinese archaeological archives over the past 7000 years, the early decline of the Yangshao Culture in the Yellow River Basin and the Hongshan Culture in the West Liao River Basin occurred during the period of gradual decrease of ASM precipitation. The dramatic decline in precipitation, caused by the extreme weakening of the ASM at 5400 a BP,may have been partly related to the decline of the Miaodigou Culture at the Yangguanzhai site in the Weihe River valley; the middle Yangshao Culture in western Henan in the Yellow River Basin; the early Dawenkou Culture on the lower reaches of the Yellow River; and the middle Hongshan Culture in the west of the Liaohe River valley. During the later period of the 5400 a BP event(5430–4920 a BP), a small amplitude increase and a subsequent sharp decrease of ASM precipitation may have also been linked to the contemporaneous prosperity and disappearance of the late Yangshao and Hongshan cultures; the disappearance of the late Yangshao Culture represented by the Yangguanzhai site in the Guanzhong basin on the Weihe River; the fourth phase of the late Yangshao Culture on the upstream Dadiwan site; the beginning of the middle Dawenkou Culture, the formation of its late stage,and the rise of the Longshan culture; and the rise of the Qujialing and Liangzhu cultures on the lower Yangtze River. Compared with the stalagmite precipitation records on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, the rise and expansion of the Majiayao Culture in the upper Yellow River valley at 5300 a BP may have also been connected to the more dramatic increase of the summer monsoon precipitation at higher, rather than lower, altitudes during the late 5400 a BP event.