In this study, a method of analogue-based correction of errors(ACE) was introduced to improve El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) prediction produced by climate models. The ACE method is based on the hypothesis that th...In this study, a method of analogue-based correction of errors(ACE) was introduced to improve El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) prediction produced by climate models. The ACE method is based on the hypothesis that the flow-dependent model prediction errors are to some degree similar under analogous historical climate states, and so the historical errors can be used to effectively reduce such flow-dependent errors. With this method, the unknown errors in current ENSO predictions can be empirically estimated by using the known prediction errors which are diagnosed by the same model based on historical analogue states. The authors first propose the basic idea for applying the ACE method to ENSO prediction and then establish an analogue-dynamical ENSO prediction system based on an operational climate prediction model. The authors present some experimental results which clearly show the possibility of correcting the flow-dependent errors in ENSO prediction, and thus the potential of applying the ACE method to operational ENSO prediction based on climate models.展开更多
The Longyangxia Gorge Key Water Control System is the first of the stairstep power sations along the Longyangxi-a-Qingtongxia river section. It has been playing an very important role in providing power, protecting fl...The Longyangxia Gorge Key Water Control System is the first of the stairstep power sations along the Longyangxi-a-Qingtongxia river section. It has been playing an very important role in providing power, protecting flood and ice run supplying and irrigation etc. in the northwestern China. Therefore, the study on trend prediction, variation on the flow into the Longyangxia Reservoir are of the great social and economic benefits. In the medium-and-long-range runoff forecast, all kinds of regression equation are often used for predicting future hydrologic regime. However, these regression models aren’t appropriate to super long -range runoff forecast because of the restricting on weather data and so on. So a new super long-range runoff forecast model don’t depend on Reai-time weather data and called “Period correcting for residual error series GM (1, 1) model” is presented based on analyzing for the relational hydrologic data and the variation on the flow into the Longyangxia Reservoir, and the forecast model was applied successfully to predict the recent and super long -term trends of the flow into the Longyangxia Reservoir. The results indicate that the annual flow into the Longyangxia Reservoir is in the ending minimum period of the runoff history. The runoff increasing is expected in for the coming years.展开更多
Jacques Derrida's engagement with Jean-Jacques Rousseau in the second part of Of Grammatology constitutes the most systematic, extensive example of deconstructive reading. Nevertheless, the problem of whether Derrida...Jacques Derrida's engagement with Jean-Jacques Rousseau in the second part of Of Grammatology constitutes the most systematic, extensive example of deconstructive reading. Nevertheless, the problem of whether Derrida reproduces Rousseau's basic claims adequately has remained a peripheral concern. This has meant that this may constitute a misreading and the consequences that this would have for the deconstructive operation itself have not adequately examined. Hence, this enquiry into Derrida's reading of Rousseau centers upon the extent to which Derrida distorts Rousseau's text in order to be able to confirm deconstruction's radical theoretical positions.展开更多
Error analysis theory is an important aspect in SLA (second language acquisition) study, which is quite significant for exploring English teaching rules and improving teaching methods. Error analysis theory is also ...Error analysis theory is an important aspect in SLA (second language acquisition) study, which is quite significant for exploring English teaching rules and improving teaching methods. Error analysis theory is also a useful means in English teaching and study. Through analyzing learners' errors, some regular patterns will be discovered. Language learning is a process of making mistakes, correcting them, and enhancing language ability. In order to promote language teaching, teachers should analyze carefully the causes of students' mistakes and take different measures to put them right. This paper will study error analysis and related theory, focus on the causes and the types of the errors in students' writing, and discuss the coping strategy in English teaching展开更多
Error correction, in recent times, is seen as one of the important teaching processes in L2 (second language) learning, because comprehensible inputs alone is insufficient for acquisition of language. However, few L...Error correction, in recent times, is seen as one of the important teaching processes in L2 (second language) learning, because comprehensible inputs alone is insufficient for acquisition of language. However, few L2 teachers know much about error analysis and how to correct errors in the L2 classroom. Error correction is a very complicated and a thorny issue in L2 teaching and learning. L2 teachers, therefore, need to be armed with ways in which errors can be treated to ensure maximum effect yet with less harm to learners. Identifying learners' errors is very important in L2 learning, but how to correct them to give the desired effect is equally important and very challenging to L2 teachers. It is therefore crucial to initiate a study in Ghana to find out how errors are corrected in the Ghanaian English language classroom. This case study used complete observation and semi-structured interview as data collection strategies to identify error correction strategies/types English teachers use in the Ghanaian JHS (Junior High School) classroom and how error correction/treatment can be improved to facilitate English language teaching and learning. The findings of the study showed that explicit error correction technique was the most commonly used followed by recast, elicitation, metalinguistic clues, clarification request, repetition, and cues. It was also found that the causes of the disparity in the use of the various error correction types were inadequate teacher preparation, incompetence in English language, limited knowledge in error correction, caliber of students, and insufficient teaching time. This study identified that the situation can be improved through effective teacher training, in-service training, learner involvement, and effective planning.展开更多
This paper discussed a method to judge and to reject the mistake and error of the monitoring strategies for English teaching and learning, and alsopresented a classification of mistake and error according to the follo...This paper discussed a method to judge and to reject the mistake and error of the monitoring strategies for English teaching and learning, and alsopresented a classification of mistake and error according to the following factors: the definition and analysisofmistake and error.With the development of theanalysis theories, more attention has been paid to the characteristic and the principle of mistake and error in the second language teaching and learning. By analyzing the differences between mistake and error, the teachers and learners can get clear of the study of English and improve the ability of using English.展开更多
This paper explores the perceptions of college English teachers towards language test development, with a focus on the harmful backwash effects, specifically derived from teachers' misconceptions. Personal account...This paper explores the perceptions of college English teachers towards language test development, with a focus on the harmful backwash effects, specifically derived from teachers' misconceptions. Personal accounts of ten college teachers of English were cited and analyzed in themes, and misconceptions were identified through descriptive interpretations. The study reveals that English teachers at college are not well-acquainted with the conceptual bases for language testing due to little formal instructions. Uninformed decisions on testing and unintelligent teacher-assessment practices are potential sources of harmful backwash on teaching and learning. A dangerous tendency of reduced efforts in teacher-assessments is present among language teachers, due to blind faith in established tests, and the absence of language testing competence or excessive emphasis on High-stakes tests in research. More in-service teacher training and action research are called for.展开更多
Identifying, describing and analyzing errors have been seen by many linguists as one of the main ways of investigating L2 acquisition.The present paper will focus on analyzing an advanced English learner' s errors...Identifying, describing and analyzing errors have been seen by many linguists as one of the main ways of investigating L2 acquisition.The present paper will focus on analyzing an advanced English learner' s errors in naturally occurring speech. Firstly, it describes in detail the errors that a Chinese advanced learner made in her first few months' the naturalistic communication, then analyzes the main types and causes of errors.Lastly, there is a conclusion that language errors are caused by the limits of human language (L1/L2) abilities and L2 errors are closely related to L1 interference.展开更多
Based on the theory of information entropy concerning nonlinear errors, the growth rules for the nonlinear errors of the Lorenz system and its predictable components are studied. The results show that the impact of th...Based on the theory of information entropy concerning nonlinear errors, the growth rules for the nonlinear errors of the Lorenz system and its predictable components are studied. The results show that the impact of the uncertainties, both in the initial error and in the system itself, needs to be considered in a quantitative estimation of the system predictability. The nonlinear error growth is related to the magnitude of the initial error, and to the spatial distribution of the initial error vectors. Even if these initial errors have the same magnitude but different directions, there are also differences in the nonlinear error growth. The predictability of nonlinear error growth is related to the error component, but not related to the ratio of these components. The component with the highest/lowest rate of enntribution does not necessarily have the greatest/least predictability. The different components have different predictabilities, and in different time periods, the different predictable components also have different predictabilities.展开更多
基金supported by the Integration and Application Project for Key Meteorology Techniques in China Meteorological Administration (Grant No. CMAGJ2014M64)the China Meteorological Special Project (Grant No. GYHY2012 06016)the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program, Grant No. 2010CB950404)
文摘In this study, a method of analogue-based correction of errors(ACE) was introduced to improve El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) prediction produced by climate models. The ACE method is based on the hypothesis that the flow-dependent model prediction errors are to some degree similar under analogous historical climate states, and so the historical errors can be used to effectively reduce such flow-dependent errors. With this method, the unknown errors in current ENSO predictions can be empirically estimated by using the known prediction errors which are diagnosed by the same model based on historical analogue states. The authors first propose the basic idea for applying the ACE method to ENSO prediction and then establish an analogue-dynamical ENSO prediction system based on an operational climate prediction model. The authors present some experimental results which clearly show the possibility of correcting the flow-dependent errors in ENSO prediction, and thus the potential of applying the ACE method to operational ENSO prediction based on climate models.
基金Ninth-Five-Year"Key Project of the State Science and Technology Commission (96-912-01-02-05 ) and National NaturalScience Fou
文摘The Longyangxia Gorge Key Water Control System is the first of the stairstep power sations along the Longyangxi-a-Qingtongxia river section. It has been playing an very important role in providing power, protecting flood and ice run supplying and irrigation etc. in the northwestern China. Therefore, the study on trend prediction, variation on the flow into the Longyangxia Reservoir are of the great social and economic benefits. In the medium-and-long-range runoff forecast, all kinds of regression equation are often used for predicting future hydrologic regime. However, these regression models aren’t appropriate to super long -range runoff forecast because of the restricting on weather data and so on. So a new super long-range runoff forecast model don’t depend on Reai-time weather data and called “Period correcting for residual error series GM (1, 1) model” is presented based on analyzing for the relational hydrologic data and the variation on the flow into the Longyangxia Reservoir, and the forecast model was applied successfully to predict the recent and super long -term trends of the flow into the Longyangxia Reservoir. The results indicate that the annual flow into the Longyangxia Reservoir is in the ending minimum period of the runoff history. The runoff increasing is expected in for the coming years.
文摘Jacques Derrida's engagement with Jean-Jacques Rousseau in the second part of Of Grammatology constitutes the most systematic, extensive example of deconstructive reading. Nevertheless, the problem of whether Derrida reproduces Rousseau's basic claims adequately has remained a peripheral concern. This has meant that this may constitute a misreading and the consequences that this would have for the deconstructive operation itself have not adequately examined. Hence, this enquiry into Derrida's reading of Rousseau centers upon the extent to which Derrida distorts Rousseau's text in order to be able to confirm deconstruction's radical theoretical positions.
文摘Error analysis theory is an important aspect in SLA (second language acquisition) study, which is quite significant for exploring English teaching rules and improving teaching methods. Error analysis theory is also a useful means in English teaching and study. Through analyzing learners' errors, some regular patterns will be discovered. Language learning is a process of making mistakes, correcting them, and enhancing language ability. In order to promote language teaching, teachers should analyze carefully the causes of students' mistakes and take different measures to put them right. This paper will study error analysis and related theory, focus on the causes and the types of the errors in students' writing, and discuss the coping strategy in English teaching
文摘Error correction, in recent times, is seen as one of the important teaching processes in L2 (second language) learning, because comprehensible inputs alone is insufficient for acquisition of language. However, few L2 teachers know much about error analysis and how to correct errors in the L2 classroom. Error correction is a very complicated and a thorny issue in L2 teaching and learning. L2 teachers, therefore, need to be armed with ways in which errors can be treated to ensure maximum effect yet with less harm to learners. Identifying learners' errors is very important in L2 learning, but how to correct them to give the desired effect is equally important and very challenging to L2 teachers. It is therefore crucial to initiate a study in Ghana to find out how errors are corrected in the Ghanaian English language classroom. This case study used complete observation and semi-structured interview as data collection strategies to identify error correction strategies/types English teachers use in the Ghanaian JHS (Junior High School) classroom and how error correction/treatment can be improved to facilitate English language teaching and learning. The findings of the study showed that explicit error correction technique was the most commonly used followed by recast, elicitation, metalinguistic clues, clarification request, repetition, and cues. It was also found that the causes of the disparity in the use of the various error correction types were inadequate teacher preparation, incompetence in English language, limited knowledge in error correction, caliber of students, and insufficient teaching time. This study identified that the situation can be improved through effective teacher training, in-service training, learner involvement, and effective planning.
文摘This paper discussed a method to judge and to reject the mistake and error of the monitoring strategies for English teaching and learning, and alsopresented a classification of mistake and error according to the following factors: the definition and analysisofmistake and error.With the development of theanalysis theories, more attention has been paid to the characteristic and the principle of mistake and error in the second language teaching and learning. By analyzing the differences between mistake and error, the teachers and learners can get clear of the study of English and improve the ability of using English.
文摘This paper explores the perceptions of college English teachers towards language test development, with a focus on the harmful backwash effects, specifically derived from teachers' misconceptions. Personal accounts of ten college teachers of English were cited and analyzed in themes, and misconceptions were identified through descriptive interpretations. The study reveals that English teachers at college are not well-acquainted with the conceptual bases for language testing due to little formal instructions. Uninformed decisions on testing and unintelligent teacher-assessment practices are potential sources of harmful backwash on teaching and learning. A dangerous tendency of reduced efforts in teacher-assessments is present among language teachers, due to blind faith in established tests, and the absence of language testing competence or excessive emphasis on High-stakes tests in research. More in-service teacher training and action research are called for.
文摘Identifying, describing and analyzing errors have been seen by many linguists as one of the main ways of investigating L2 acquisition.The present paper will focus on analyzing an advanced English learner' s errors in naturally occurring speech. Firstly, it describes in detail the errors that a Chinese advanced learner made in her first few months' the naturalistic communication, then analyzes the main types and causes of errors.Lastly, there is a conclusion that language errors are caused by the limits of human language (L1/L2) abilities and L2 errors are closely related to L1 interference.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41375063)
文摘Based on the theory of information entropy concerning nonlinear errors, the growth rules for the nonlinear errors of the Lorenz system and its predictable components are studied. The results show that the impact of the uncertainties, both in the initial error and in the system itself, needs to be considered in a quantitative estimation of the system predictability. The nonlinear error growth is related to the magnitude of the initial error, and to the spatial distribution of the initial error vectors. Even if these initial errors have the same magnitude but different directions, there are also differences in the nonlinear error growth. The predictability of nonlinear error growth is related to the error component, but not related to the ratio of these components. The component with the highest/lowest rate of enntribution does not necessarily have the greatest/least predictability. The different components have different predictabilities, and in different time periods, the different predictable components also have different predictabilities.