考虑个体感知的公交接驳轨道交通范围确定

为提高轨道交通与公交接驳的有效性,对轨道交通的站点公交接驳范围进行研究。基于问卷调查数据,分析不同轨道交通段乘行时间场景下个体出行感知分布特征,包括出行心理分布特征和距离衰减特征,确定可接受接驳时间和轨道段乘行时间的相关性关系,采用非集计价格敏感度模型计算不同轨道段乘行时间场景下的公交接驳时空阈值。结果表明:可接受的公交接驳时间随轨道段乘行时间增长呈非线性增长,增长速度逐渐变缓,两者之间的关系可用对数模型拟合,R^(2)为0.83;出行者在轨道段乘行10 min、20 min、30 min、40 min、60 min和80 min时,可接受的接驳公交服务范围分别为1.65 km、2.4 km、3.51 km、4.86 km、5.79 km和6.36 km;以济南市地铁2号为例,计算19个轨道车站的公交接驳范围,其中位于城市外围区域的轨道站点公交接驳范围相对较大。

步行和自行车接驳轨道交通时空阈值研究

当前步行和自行车接驳轨道交通的理论研究和实践多侧重于设施指标水平,而对出行者心理考虑不足。在北京市某轨道交通车站周边进行问卷调查和现场模拟实验,深入分析影响步行和自行车接驳轨道交通的因素。同时得到使用步行和自行车接驳轨道交通的出行者对接驳距离和时间的敏感程度及接受度分布特征、接驳客流距离衰减特征等。利用非集计价格敏感度分析法量化步行和自行车接驳轨道交通的时空阈值,分别得到合理和最大的接驳距离和接驳时间。

停车换乘设施使用者调查

为了探讨停车换乘设施吸引的出行需求行为特性,在北京市进行了停车换乘设施使用者问卷调查。采用行为调查和意向调查相结合的方式,深入分析停车换乘设施使用者的出行行为特性和换乘行为意愿。结果显示,停车换乘者主要是全职通勤和中等偏高收入出行者,其驾车到达停车换乘设施的时间集中在6～30 min,乘坐公共交通的时间为30～60 min。最后,利用非集计价格敏感度测定法,得到换乘者可接受的最大换乘步行距离和可行候车时间分别为300 m和10 min。

居住区泊位共享对外开放比例研究

近年来,“停车难”逐渐成为城市交通中的重要问题。居住区泊位共享政策在一定程度上能够缓解城市停车供需矛盾不平衡的问题、提高城市居住区泊位的利用率。居住区停车共享泊位对外开放比例对于泊位共享的政策制定与实施存在着重要意义,然而居住区对外共享泊位开放比例存在难以量化的问题。基于此,本文通过设计问卷调查获取相关数据,分析影响居民泊位共享意愿的影响因素,引入经济学相关理论量化泊位共享对外开放比例,为居住区泊位共享政策的实施与制定提供参考依据。

Study on the Price Design and Contract Stability of "Company + Farmer" Model with Time Preference under Double Moral Hazards

The double moral hazard of ＂company ＋ farmer＂ and the time preference cost of company and farmer was analyzed. According to static game model, it re-vealed that the reason for low compliance rate of ＂company ＋ farmer＂ model was the existence of market risk, namely, the fluctuation of market price, and the stable market price in contracts was actualy a kind of interval, instead of a specific value. Furthermore, the effect of default penalty, market transaction cost and time prefer-ence cost on the stability of contract was studied. The results showed that default penalty, market transaction cost and time preference cost had positive influence on the price interval range of a contract.

Calculation of slope-cover height under price fluctuation in open-pit mines

Leaving ditches between adjacent mining areas can effectively reduce re-stripping in the latter mining area and simultaneously lead to an increment in internal dumping costs in the former mining area. This paper establishes calculation models for these two marginal costs. The optimizing model for slope cover height can be determined by including marginal cost models in the objective function. The paper has two main contributions:(a) it fully considers redistribution of dumping space in the model;(b) it introduces price fluctuations and cash discounts in the model. We use the typical open-pit mine as an example to test and prove the model. We conclude that a completely covered slope is reasonable in Haerwusu open pit mine; in addition to an increasing price index, the slope cover height can be reduced; and that price changes are one of the most important influencing factors of slope cover height optimization in an open-pit mine.

On stochastic optimal control of partially observable nonlinear quasi Hamiltonian systems

A stochastic optimal control strategy for partially observable nonlinear quasi Hamiltonian systems is proposed. The optimal control forces consist of two parts. The first part is determined by the conditions under which the stochastic optimal control problem of a partially observable nonlinear system is converted into that of a completely observable linear system. The second part is determined by solving the dynamical programming equation derived by applying the stochastic averaging method and stochastic dynamical programming principle to the completely observable linear control system. The response of the optimally controlled quasi Hamiltonian system is predicted by solving the averaged Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov equation associated with the optimally controlled completely observable linear system and solving the Riccati equation for the estimated error of system states. An example is given to illustrate the procedure and effectiveness of the proposed control strategy.

On determinants of audit fee： New evidence from China

Summarizing many audit service pricing models, we use the method ‘stepwise’ of OLS to establish our audit service pricing. And then, we get a result that the four factors determine audit fees and total assets at year-end and sales of the current year are complementary each other in measuring the auditee size better than respectively.

The Impact of Enterprise Resource Planning （ERP） System on the Cost and Price of Auditing Auditor＇s Perspective

Technology plays a key role in today＇s business environment. Many companies greatly rely on computers and software to provide accurate information to effectively manage their business processes. It is becoming increasingly necessary for all businesses to incorporate information technology solutions to operate successfully. One way for many corporations to adopt information technology （IT） on a large scale is by installing enterprise resource planning （ERP） systems to accomplish their business transactions and data-processing needs. ERP systems are software packages that enable the integration of business processes throughout an organization. This study aims to determine the effect of the ERP system on the cost of auditing period compared with traditional computerized （non-ERP） systems. According to cost analysis, the study also points out the changes in audit price. The methodology used in this research is survey-based data collection. The questionnaires are sent to auditors who are working with companies with ERP systems. The answers are processed and analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Sciences （SPSS） 20. The data are performed using the statistical test to determine the effect of ERP usage on the cost of auditing process and pricing policy of auditors. The findings of this study are： （1） Companies with ERP systems are reducing their auditing costs; and （2） Auditing companies are not implying a low rate of price to their customers using ERP.

Cost of Production at Business Unit in Aquaculture Industry： Study at Aquafarm Nusantara Company

Types of industry are manifold, patterns used in the determination of the cost of production can also vary. Elements of the cost of production are raw materials, direct labor, and factory overhead. Value of raw materials used in aquaculture industry in particular needs to calculate the cost of feed consumed by fish, thus greatly affect the price of fish feed cost of production. The calculation of the value of raw materials in fish production cost element to consider is the calculation of the value of raw material components, namely, （1） biomass of harvestable fish as the basic multiplication cost of production per kilogram or per fish harvested fish; （2） the ratio of fish feed intake by the amount of fish produced or often called the Feed Conversion Ratio （FCR）; and （3） the average purchase price of feed on fish harvest period is used as the basis for calculating the cost of production as well. This research is applied research that uses data archive aquaculture companies. The results in the observed period, the value FCR is 0.80, which means to fish have been consumed as much as 0.80 kg of fish feed. Biomass of fish that are harvested at 47,399.95 kg or 1,869,647 individuals. The average purchase price of fish feed on the observation period amounted to IDR 4,855.79. So the price of raw materials contained in harvested fish in the observation period calculates the value of multiplying all the components of raw materials （i.e., IDR 184,131,362.57）. Method of calculating the cost of production companies is process method and charging method used is the full costing method.

Agroforestry, Rural Populations, Poplar Plantations and Marketing

One of the objectives of the 1257/99 EU regulation was that rural populations should be able to gain an extra income. This regulation may not be any longer in force, but soon a new one will replace it. The plantations that are created by Greek farmers more specifically the plantations of poplar trees-have a ten-year rotation at least. This means that the time between the establishment of the plantation and the harvest is high. As a consequence, during this time, the market environment （e.g. prices） may face substantial changes. Frequently, these changes are so immense that producers are driven in economic distress. This situation is also linked to the domestic timber supply and imports, and as a result to the product prices. Concerning the market prices of poplar trees, one additional factor that has probably deteriorated the situation is the E.U. expansion. This paper examines a case study in North Greece. Vital conclusions are made which may be useful for the Greek and E.U. decision makers regarding the process of dealing with current issues such as the 1257/99 regulation replacement （1698/2005）.

Price Dynamics of the World Gold Market： A Model Incorporating Inventories

Gold is regarded as a strategic mineral in many countries and its price is a key indicator of global business confidence. There is need for dynamic modelling of the world gold market, which would enhance understanding of the world market conditions, especially the long-term tendency of world gold prices, and hence facilitate long-term planning. This study incorporates inventories into the world market model and uses simultaneous equation approaches to estimate the model. From this estimation, the paper derives the time-path for the world annual price of gold. Results show that the price time-path converges without oscillations, from below, towards an intertemporal equilibrium. This equilibrium is estimated at about US$105,000.00 per kilogram based on a projected average world income. If the assumption of average income is relaxed, the intertemporal equilibrium price becomes variable dependent on the actual values of world income at a given time, which however, does not alter its dynamic characteristics. The results, therefore, show that gold price is dynamically stable. Short-term fluctuations, which are sometimes extreme, have no long-term effect on gold attractiveness.

Comparative Analysis of Medicines for Rural and Urban Population of Lithuania in 1935

In order to answer the question as to how patients were treated in different historical periods, one of the most objective sources of study are pharmacy record books. The books were used for registration of all prescriptions based on which medicines have been produced in the pharmacy. Their contents reveal what medications were prescribed for treatment of various diseases, what kind of ingredients were used in the produce of medicines, and how much medicines cost. Lithuanian museums and archives stored dozen XIX-twentieth century the first half of prescription books. The present research analyses the prescription books of Petra^i~nai, a suburban area of the Lithuanian1 provisional capital, and a small Batakiai town in Taurage county with the population of 800, in 1935 Both books are stored in the Lithuanian Medical and Pharmaceutical History Museum. The study reveals what medicines were used for treatment of Lithuanian urban and rural residents in 1935, what the most often prescribed medicines were, specifics of the composition of medicines prescribed by doctors and a paramedic, popularity of animal medicines and the prices of medicines. The research was based on the methods of historical benchmark data processing and statistical analysis.

Accounting variables and stock returns： Evidence from Istanbul stock exchange

The fundamental relationship between accounting variables and stock returns is a recurring theme in financial research. One of the major purposes of accounting is to help investors provide reliable, comparable and accurate information. If accounting data are informative about fundamental values and changes in values, they should be correlated with stock price changes. This study provides theory and evidence showing how accounting variables explain stock returns and examines the relationship between the stock returns and accounting variables of listed non financial companies in ISE-100 Indice for 2006-2008 period by using panel data methodology. Empirical analysis consists of 192 observations of 64 companies in years 2006-2008 to examine the effects of inventory, accounts receivable, gross margin, operating expense, return on assets, cash flow, leverage, liquidity, price/earnings, return on equity on stock returns. The results of the study confirm that the predicted roles of fundamental factors and stock returns are significantly related to gross margin, cash flow, leverage and equity variables. The model explains about 13.35 % of the variation of annual stock returns with the leverage variable with most of the significant power.

Improved Crude Oil Price Forecasting With Statistical Learning Methods

Reliable forecasts of the price of oil are of interest for a wide range of applications. For example, central banks and private sector forecasters view the price of oil as one of the key variables in generating macroeconomic projections and in assessing macroeconomic risks. Of particular interest is the question of the extent to which the price of oil is helpful in predicting recessions. This paper presents a statistical learning method （SLM） based on combined fuzzy system （FS）, artificial neural network （ANN）, and support vector regression （SVR） to cope with optimum long-term oil price forecasting in noisy, uncertain, and complex environments. A number of quantitative factors were discovered from this model and used as the input. For verification and testing, the West Texas Intermediate （WT1） crude oil spot price is used to test the effectiveness of the proposed learning methodology. Empirical results reveal that the proposed SLM-based forecasting can model the nonlinear relationship between the input variables and price very well. Furthermore, in-sample and out-of-sample prediction performance also demonstrates that the proposed SLM model can produce more accurate prediction results than other nonlinear models.

Sustainability Aspects of the Wheat Sector

In the frame of the present study, we examined the wheat sector with respect to economic and social sustainability. Accordingly, two research questions were formulated： （1） Is wheat production sustainable in economic terms？ and （2） Is wheat production sustainable in social terms？ Our view is that the content of sustainability can be defined on a case-by-case basis, and in our case, wheat production provides this content. To answer the research questions, we collected statistical data on the production area, average yield, production volume, selling price, consumption of wheat, and evaluated the tendencies prevalent in the sector. We suppose that in social terms, sustainability means maintaining consumption at least at a constant level, knowing that this sector produces considerable share of the direct and indirect food raw materials. A chief dilemma is that world population is continuously growing, although the size of the cultivated area in the wheat sector has not indicated significant changes over the past few decades. Unless increasing the yields, severe decrease may occur in the per capita production of wheat in the long run. In this case, the current consumption level will not be sustainable in the medium run. In addition, in the long run, it may even have influence on the consumption level of other commodities.

Oil Crisis, Market Reforms, and Human Welfare： An Econometric Analysis of the Australian Economy

As an active trader in international crude oil and petroleum product markets, Australia＇s human welfare is affected by oil crisis and contagion from the perspectives of economic growth, income inequality, and environmental sustainability. This paper investigates the impacts of oil price shocks upon Australia＇s gross domestic product （GDP） growth, Gini coefficients, and carbon dioxide emissions per capita from 1970 to 2012 with yearly frequency. Hypotheses concerning whether Australia＇s economic immunity against oil crisis is affected after the deregulation of oil market and whether endogenous oil price shocks account for more variations in human welfare than exogenous oil price shocks are tested. The methodologies include a theoretic model and a series of econometric tests. For the short-run dynamics, oil price is integrated into the model both linearly and non-linearly. Oil price shocks are categorized into exogenous and endogenous shocks. The conclusions are that inflated oil prices exert mainly non-linear negative impacts upon human welfare indicators and exogenous shocks induce endogenous shocks through labor price, Consumer Price Index （CPI）, interest rate, and exchange rate. For the long-run equilibrium, non-linear shocks＇ effects decay more slowly than linear shocks and the impacts of endogenous shocks last longer than that of exogenous shocks. Finally, oil market policies are evaluated and proposed.

Combined Heat and Power Design Considerations for the APR1400

To date, nuclear cogeneration applications have been limited, primarily to district heating in Eastern Europe and heavy water production in Canada. With the current global price for oil and energy, this technology is not economically viable for most countries. However, oil and fossil fuel prices are known to be highly volatile, and the Paris Agreement calls for a reduction in fossil fuel use. Under these circumstances, heat supplied by nuclear power may abruptly return to favor. To prepare for such a scenario, this study will investigate design considerations for a prototypical modem nuclear power plant, the Korean APR1400 （advanced power reactor 1400） （e.g., Shin Kori Units 3, 4, Shin Hanul 1, 2, Barakah Units 1, 2, 3, 4）. Nuclear cogeneration can impact balance of plant system and component design for the condensate, feedwater, extraction steam, and heater drain systems. The APR1400 turbine cycle will be reviewed for a parametric range of pressures and flow rates of the steam exported for cogeneration to identify major design challenges.

Impact of Rising Oil Prices on the Living Cost in Burkina Faso

Fluctuations of the world oil prices affect economic performance. Outside the impact on the sector of energy production, the rising oil price has consequences on inflationary pressures and a deteriorating fiscal position of Burkina Faso. In this context, studying the impact of rising oil prices on the economy, especially the cost of living of its population has a great interest because although many studies have attempted to link 〈〈oil prices〉~ and 〈〈cost of living~, very few have focused on the specific case of Burkina Faso. This allows us to make our contribution to this construction literature. This contribution will consist to highlight the relation between changes in oil prices and the cost of living in Burkina Faso. Also to be reached, we will find the best indicator to reflect the cost of living in Burkina Faso, identify the suitable econometric model for estimating the correlation and verify the existence of the relation between oil prices and the cost of living. For a better approach to this study, we used a VAR （Vector Auto-Regressive） model. Also, we will use documentary research that will make an assessment on the existing in terms of theoretical debates around the theme descriptive statistics that will help to introduce and describe the variables used in the study, and econometric analysis will analyze and estimate the parameters of our objective function using Eviews.

A Contribution to a Better Understanding of Global Land Grabbing＇s Impact on Employment and Environmental Threats

In the last two decades, the global interest on farmland grew at a remarkable pace. As a consequence, million hectares of land exchanged hands. The ways the transfers happened combined with their geographic concentration in Sub-Saharian Africa, have earned the phenomenon the name of ＂land grab＂. The agricultural sector considered a ＂sunset industry＂ when commodities prices were declining, is now attractive to financial investors. These foreign investments may be good as they may improve agricultural productivity or instead bad as they may benefit only financial investors. Some results in terms of environmental and local communities＇ worsening conditions have already emerged. This paper aims to investigate what drives the big size transfers of land, to empirically estimate their effects in terms of local employment and to assess the environmental effects produced by the rapid transformation in the use of vast amount of land in terms of CO2 emissions. It is also proposed to use the estimation in terms of local employment impact as a way of distinguishing between foreign direct investment and land grabbing.