社会养老保险金计发模型新探——基于《社会保险法》的视阈

我国养老金计发经历了从退休工资制向社会养老保险的巨大转变。但是,面对跨统筹区域就业、个人账户保值增值压力巨大、养老金待遇调整机制不健全等问题,使现行养老金遭遇计发困境。根据《社会保险法》精神,对基础养老金计发方式进行再设计,提高个人账户养老金收益,创新养老金计发模型,以破解现行养老金计发困境。

基本养老金计发理论模型的建立

基本养老金计发参数的确定受许多因素的影响 ,基于我国的现实情况 ,运用目标规划的方法 ,建立一个基本养老金计发模型有重要意义。

基本养老金计算模型的构建及分析

基本养老金计发办法是养老保险的核心问题,通过建立数学模型,可以更清晰地看到,缴费指数、缴费年限与养老金替代率成正相关关系,缴费指数、个人账户记账利率对可支付月数影响显著,而政府社保部门可以通过个人账户记账利率调节养老金替代率。

Cellular Automaton Simulations for Target Waves in Excitable Media

Using the Greenberg-Hasting cellular automata model, we study the properties of target waves in excitable media under the no-flux boundary conditions. For the system has only one excited state, the computer simulation and analysis lead to the conclusions that, the number of refractory states does not influence the wave-front speed; the wave- front speed decreases as the excitation threshold increases and increases as the neighbor radius increases; the period of target waves is equal to the number of cell states; the excitation condition for target waves is that the wave-front speed must be bigger than half of the neighbor radius.

Development and Optimization of an Alternative Methodology for Detection of Milk Adulteration by Water

This paper presents a process which allows the determination of milk adulteration by water. Considering the limitations of the reference method （cryoscopy）, the proposed methodology matches electrical conductivity and cryoscopy index measurements. Based on statistical procedures, a linear descriptive model is achieved to quantify adulteration of milk with water. It is also shown that electrical conductivity measurements allow the detection of adulteration with water and sodium chloride.

Vehicle kinematics modeling and design of vehicle trajectory generator system

A trajectory generator based on vehicle kinematics model was presented and an integrated navigation simulation system was designed.Considering that the tight relation between vehicle motion and topography,a new trajectory generator for vehicle was proposed for more actual simulation.Firstly,a vehicle kinematics model was built based on conversion of attitude vector in different coordinate systems.Then,the principle of common trajectory generators was analyzed.Besides,combining the vehicle kinematics model with the principle of dead reckoning,a new vehicle trajectory generator was presented,which can provide process parameters of carrier anytime and achieve simulation of typical actions of running vehicle.Moreover,IMU(inertial measurement unit) elements were simulated,including accelerometer and gyroscope.After setting up the simulation conditions,the integrated navigation simulation system was verified by final performance test.The result proves the validity and flexibility of this design.

A new improved Alopex-based evolutionary algorithm and its application to parameter estimation

In this work, focusing on the demerit of AEA (Alopex-based evolutionary algorithm) algorithm, an improved AEA algorithm (AEA-C) which was fused AEA with clonal selection algorithm was proposed. Considering the irrationality of the method that generated candidate solutions at each iteration of AEA, clonal selection algorithm could be applied to improve the method. The performance of the proposed new algorithm was studied by using 22 benchmark functions and was compared with original AEA given the same conditions. The experimental results show that the AEA-C clearly outperforms the original AEA for almost all the 22 benchmark functions with 10, 30, 50 dimensions in success rates, solution quality and stability. Furthermore, AEA-C was applied to estimate 6 kinetics parameters of the fermentation dynamics models. The standard deviation of the objective function calculated by the AEA-C is 41.46 and is far less than that of other literatures' results, and the fitting curves obtained by AEA-C are more in line with the actual fermentation process curves.

A Fuzzy-based Adaptive Genetic Algorithm and Its Case Study in Chemical Engineering

Considering that the performance of a genetic algorithm （GA） is affected by many factors and their rela-tionships are complex and hard to be described,a novel fuzzy-based adaptive genetic algorithm （FAGA） combined a new artificial immune system with fuzzy system theory is proposed due to the fact fuzzy theory can describe high complex problems.In FAGA,immune theory is used to improve the performance of selection operation.And,crossover probability and mutation probability are adjusted dynamically by fuzzy inferences,which are developed according to the heuristic fuzzy relationship between algorithm performances and control parameters.The experi-ments show that FAGA can efficiently overcome shortcomings of GA,i.e.,premature and slow,and obtain better results than two typical fuzzy GAs.Finally,FAGA was used for the parameters estimation of reaction kinetics model and the satisfactory result was obtained.

Cognitive Heuristics and Dual Process Models A Perspective for Management Accounting （MA）？

Classical management accounting （MA） Focusing on the facilitating perspective, focuses on decision facilitating and influencing （Demski ＆ Feltham, 1976）. MA has to provide information to managers and depending on the problem complexity, they have to solve problems in a dyadic way. A dual process model, the heuristic systematic model （HSM）, expands this so-called manager-accountant-dyad and shows different cases of actual human information processing. Managers and accountants either process systematically or heuristically. So far, many concepts have been designed in relation to the normative concept of the economical rational principle. Consequently, recent research only uses systematic information processing, based on the principle of the economic man. In this paper, a decision-behavior oriented approach tries to describe actual decision makers such as managers and accountants and shows new possibilities within MA. Therefore, the potential of heuristic information processing is analyzed, based on the phenomenon of ecological rationality as one shape of bounded rationality. Thus, different cognitive heuristics in business economics are identified and analyzed. Furthermore, the outstanding performance of heuristics compared with more complex calculations is shown. Unfortunately, these findings have been limited to marketing and investments so far. Significant research is needed, regarding conditions for applications and success factors of heuristics in business economics. New empirical findings have to be explicitly transferred to MA.

The definition analyses of radiation temperature measurement area

In the research of primary spectrum pyrometry, this paper discussed the definition problem of radiation temperature measurement area based on the measurement coordinates. For the linear spectrum emissivity model and improved monotonic spectrum emissivity model, the characteristics of radiation temperature measurement area restricted by the measurement coordinates were theoretically analyzed, through the investigations of the temperature and emissivity coordinate axes. Choosing the specific primary spectrum pyrometer as an example in applications, the theoretical area of radiation temperature measurement of this pyrometer was given and it was verified through blackbody experiments. The discussions of this paper will provide the necessary foundation for the theory research development of primary spectrum pyrometry and the realization of technical applications.

Design and Performance of a Controlled Environment Mini-chamber for Measuring Produce Quality Deterioration

To minimize losses between harvest and retail display, a system is needed to track temperature and RH exposure of fresh produce and predict its quality at each step of the distribution chain. With accurate models, such system could （1） identify problematic situations before losses occur; （2） become a management tool for decision makers; and （3） help quantify the real impact of individual inappropriate conditions. A project was initiated to develop models required for such a decision system. Because the data required to develop models were not available for most fruit and vegetables, a series of storage trials was planned for measuring changes in physiological and microbial quality, and development of physiological disorders and/or diseases, as a function of time, temperature and RH. To meet this objective, controlled environment mini-chambers were designed, built and instrumented for measuring the effect of traceable environmental conditions encountered during storage and transportation of fresh horticultural produce of similar size and shape as tomato. Detailed design and performance evaluation of these mini-chambers are presented.

Power Stabilization by Windfarm Applied Statistical Model and Pumped Storage Generation Using Archimedean Screw

In this paper, a method of stabilizing electric power by a system which is a combination of wind power generation and pumped storage power generation is proposed. The system operates based on the output predicted value of the windfarm. When the measured windfarm output is larger than the predicted value, the system is pumping up water with surplus power. When the windfarm output is smaller than the predicted value, the system is filling up lack power by hydro generator. Also, since hydro generator works with a start-up delay time, output shortage occurs at this time. To improve output shortage at the time, we estimate the time below the predicted value by a statistical model. As the result, the system succeeded in stabilizing the power and improving the start-up delay time of the hydro generator.

Parameterization Modeling of a Gas Turbine Coverplate

In order to reduce product development cycle time, aerospace companies tend to develop various correlations integrating geometric and performance parameters. This paper covers the development of a parameterization modeling, to be used in the preliminary design phase, for the turbine cover plate of an aero-engine. The parameterization modeling of the turbine cover plate is achieved by using commercial CAD （computer aided design） software processing in batch mode. Two main approaches are presented the outer face and the skeleton models. These models can then be integrated into an iterative process for designing optimal shapes. Both models are capable of reproducing existing cover plate with reasonable accuracy in relatively shorter time periods. However, the skeleton approach provides probably the best results in terms of flexibility and accuracy, but increases programming complexity and requires greater run times.

Implementation of Cooling Systems to Enhance Dairy Cows＇ Microenvironment

A tool was developed to assist the cooling systems designer in designing and installing the microsprinklers and fan cooling system. The tool was developed by integrating a mathematical model into an electronic spark map in order to use the mathematical model practically. The mathematical model was developed using the designs, parameters, variables, and constant values of the microsprinklers and fans cooling system. Subsequently, an electronic spark map （decision tree） was developed, and then the mathematical model was integrated into the electronic spark map. Afterwards, C# （C Sharp） programming language was used to develop a computer system via the electronic spark map, and to make the user interface. The developed computer system assists the designer in making decisions to specify and to calculate the required discharge of cooling system pump, length and diameter of cooling system pipelines, number of cooling fans, and number of microsprinklers. Moreover, this tool calculates the capital investment and the fixed, variable, and total costs of the cooling system. However, the mathematical model of the spark map requires some input data such as： pressure and discharge of microsprinklers, and some other engineering parameters. Data of 4 cooling systems were used to carry out the model validation. The differences between actual and calculated values were determined, and the standard deviations were calculated. The coefficients of variation were between 2.25% and 4.13%.

Impact of Wind Power on the ATC Values in Hydro-Dominated Power System

The wind power generation is increasing in many countries as a result of decreasing technology costs, active government policies for renewable energy sources, environmental concerns, etc.. This paper investigates the impact of wind power generation on ATC （available transmission capacity） calculation. In order to determine the maximum incremental MW transfer possible between two parts of a power system without violating any specified limits, ATCs are calculated. When calculating ATC values, it is necessary to assume production and consumption pattern in power system. Production of wind power depends on the wind speed, which is a random variable and it is impossible to forecast exactly the production of wind power that is needed for the ATCs calculation. In order to investigate influence of the stochastic wind power production on the ATCs value, computer model of Croatian electric power system is made in Power World Simulator. ATCs are calculated for southern part of Croatian power system in which besides wind power, hydro power plants are only type of power generation. Available wind speed measurements are used as input data for wind power production. The results of the ATC calculation for different scenario of wind power production and location in the Southern Croatian power system are presented and discussed in the paper.

Vehicles PEMFC Power System Mathematical Model for Integrated Design

In this paper, the mathematical dynamical model of a PEMFC （proton exchange membrane fuel cells） stack, integrated with an automotive synchronous electrical power drive, developed in Matlab environment, is shown. Lots of simulations have been executed in many load conditions. In this paper, the load conditions regarding an electrical vehicle for disabled people is reported. The innovation in this field concerns the integration, in the PEMFC stack mathematical dynamic model, of a synchronous electrical power drive for automotive purposes. Goal of the simulator design has been to create an useful tool which is able to evaluate the behaviour of the whole system so as to optimize the components choose. As regards the simulations with a synchronous electrical power drive, the complete mathematical model allows to evaluate the PEMFC stack performances and electrochemical efficiency.

Prediction method of impeller performance and analysis of loss mechanism for mixed-flow pump

A loss model for the mixed-flow pump impellers was developed by summarizing a variety of loss calculation formulas systematically.The internal flow field of the impeller was obtained by employing the iterative calculation for S 1 and S 2 stream surfaces to solve the continuity and motion equations of fluid.Based on the calculation method of the flow field and the loss model,it is achieved to predict the impeller performance of the mixed-flow pump and the performance curves of a mixed-flow pump model with adjustable blades.Compared with the test data,the loss model of the mixed-flow pump based on the iterative calculation can predict the impeller performance quickly and accurately,which has a high value on the engineering applications.Based on the test verification,curves of various kinds of losses varied for the flow rate were analyzed under different blade angles.In addition,the mechanisms of various kinds of losses inside the mixed-flow pump impeller were discussed in-depth.

PARAMETER ESTIMATION FOR A DISCRETELY OBSERVED STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODEL WITH JUMPS IN THE VOLATILITY

In this paper a stochastic volatility model is considered. That is, a log price process Y whichis given in terms of a volatility process V is studied. The latter is defined such that the logprice possesses some of the properties empirically observed by Barndorff-Nielsen & Jiang[6]. Inthe model there are two sets of unknown parameters, one set corresponding to the marginaldistribution of V and one to autocorrelation of V. Based on discrete time observations ofthe log price the authors discuss how to estimate the parameters appearing in the marginaldistribution and find the asymptotic properties.

Performance calculation and improved model research of direct-drive permanent magnet generator based on FEM

In some control strategies of the direct-rive permanent magnet generator(DDPMG),the mathematics model is excessively simplified and some complex nonlinear characteristics,such as core saturation and cross-saturation,are generally neglected.To solve this problem,this paper utilizes the frozen element permeability method to compute the armature self-and mutual-inductance,permanent magnet d-and q-axis flux varying with d-axis and q-axis current,then an improved model is presented in which the core saturation and cross-saturation between d-axis and q-axis are considered effectively.Based on this model,the method for computing the performance of the generators is also proposed.Taking a 1.5-MW DDPMG as an example,the time-stepping finite element method(T-S FEM) is adopted to analyze the performance with no-load and loaded conditions,the results show a good agreement with the ones obtained by the improved model.Compared with the simplified model,it is demonstrated that the presented model has the high efficiency and reliability and can provide a good reference for optimization design of DDPMG and other PM motors.