中日钓鱼岛之争中的有效统治证据分量考

有效统治作为一国对争议区域行使主权活动的行为,已经引起越来越多国家的重视。但是,有效统治并非一种法律权利,当有效统治行为与体现权原的权利发生冲突时,后者处于优先的地位;而且,有效的国际条约具有决定性分量。同样,中日钓鱼岛列岛争端中所涉及的相关条约应具有优先性。但是,不应忽视历史证据,尤其是有效统治证据的分量。为了巩固我国对钓鱼岛列岛享有的历史主权,必须采取各种有效统治措施,进一步彰显主权。

国际法庭确定领土边界争端中地图证据分量考——U形线地图在解决南沙群岛争端中的作用

由于地图通常能够对确定边界的位置起到重要的证明作用,因而国际法庭十分重视其证据功能。在司法实践中,国际法庭一般会根据个案的情况赋予地图相应的分量,且已经初步形成了一套认定地图分量大小的比较规则。尤其是,随着空中和卫星图像技术的发展,地图的可靠性越来越高,这对于解决当事方领土边界争端无疑具有重要的价值。尽管如此,鉴于地图的来源、比例、技术和专业技能与精度,以及当事方随后的适用等因素,国际法庭对地图作为可采信证据仍持审慎态度。国际法庭在实践中适用的地图分量大小比较规则对解决南沙群岛争端具有重要借鉴意义。体现中国官方意图并长期得到相关争端方默认或承认的U形线地图,对南沙争议岛礁归属的判定具有不可反驳的推定效力,等同于法律权利。

裸统计证据的推理性质与规范法理

裸统计证据发挥证明作用的方式,是将某个具体的个人或事件归入一类人或一类事件,然后指出该类人或事件在整体上具有某个盖然性特征,从而证明这个具体个人或事件具有该特征或做出了某个行为。裸统计证据可以证明一个极高的概率值。如果将司法证明的盖然性理解为帕斯卡模式意义上的概率性,那么裸统计证据能够满足法定的证明要求。然而,建立在帕斯卡概率基础上的概率命题观点和部分信念观点,无法解释和解决裸统计证据的推理悖论。绝对信念观点则认为,仅根据裸统计证据,一位理性的事实认定者无法形成对于案件事实的合理信念。绝对信念观点以培根概率模式解释司法证明的盖然性,认为信念必须建立在有“分量”的证据基础上。于是,裸统计证据尽管指示了极高的概率值,但是缺乏证据的应有分量。只有“个别化”的证据才能“涵盖”作为具体事件的案件事实,裸统计证据和待证事实之间存在巨大的“信息空隙”,远未达到法定的证明要求。裸统计证据不仅自身无法满足充分性要求,它还可能引发证据推理合法性欠缺、不公正的偏见、概率计算错误、证据信息的不平等利用等问题。因此,证据立法或司法实践需要谨慎对待裸统计证据的采纳与排除。

“发生优势”:一种新证明力观——狭义证明力的概率认知与评价进路

将似然率和贝叶斯定理引入证明领域,能够得出狭义证明力的似然率评价进路,继而获得其全新定义:即一项具有辨识度的证据在诉讼双方当事人提出相互独立假设下的“发生优势”。新定义基于概率评价体系具象化了证明力的真实面孔,揭示了证明力的两个决定性因素,道出了证据的实质价值并在此基础上创设出一套具体评价狭义证明力的科学思维范式。数字化证明力的概率评价进路面临帕斯卡式概率体系的诸多潜在危险,培根式概率体系能够有效消解这些危险。证据分量将帕斯卡式概率体系与培根式概率体系有效地结合在一起,形成了更加契合于现代庭审事实认定之证明力概率综合评价体系。

Early warning of rock mass instability based on multi-field coupling analysis and microseismic monitoring

In order to overcome the limitation that rock mass instability warnings are caused by a lack of deep consideration of the inherent mechanism of disaster formation, early warning signs of rock mass instability were detected and multi-field coupling was analyzed. A multi-field coupling model of a damaged rock mass was established. The relationship between microseismic activity parameters and rock mass stability was analyzed, and a multi-parameter early warning index system was established and its solution program was compiled. Based on the D-S data fusion theory,an early warning model of rock mass instability combining multi-field coupling analysis and microseismic monitoring was constructed. Taking an underground mine stope as an object, the multi-field coupling model and its solution program were used to analyze mining response characteristics. The seismic field data were used to verify the accuracy of the multi-field coupling analysis. The early warning model was used to predict the instability of stope rock mass,and the early warning result is consistent with a real-world scenario.

Is changing footstrike pattern beneficial to runners?

Some researchers, running instructors, and coaches have suggested that the "optimal" footstrike pattern to improve performance and reduce running injuries is to land using a mid-or forefoot strike. Thus, it has been recommended that runners who use a rearfoot strike would benefit by changing their footstrike although there is little scientific evidence for suggesting such a change. The rearfoot strike is clearly more prevalent. The major reasons often given for changing to a mid-or forefoot strike are(1) it is more economical;(2) there is a reduction in the impact peak and loading rate of the vertical component of the ground reaction force; and(3) there is a reduction in the risk of a running-related injuries. In this paper,we critique these 3 suggestions and provide alternate explanations that may provide contradictory evidence for altering one's footstrike pattern.We have concluded, based on examining the research literature, that changing to a mid-or forefoot strike does not improve running economy, does not eliminate an impact at the foot-ground contact, and does not reduce the risk of running-related injuries.

Large Eddy Simulation of Methane Non-premixed Flame Using the Laminar Flamelet Model

The large eddy simulation (LES) using the steady laminar flamelet model is applied to a simple turbulent jet flame with 33.2% H2,22.1% CH4 and 44.7% N2 at the Reynolds number of 15,200 in order to validate the numerical methods and to investigate the flame structure.For the validation,the detailed experimental data of DLR-A flame is used.The numerical results are in reasonable agreement with experimental results except mass fractions of minor species.In the flow field,the break-down of the potential core,the vortex structure and the mixing intensity are well captured.In the combustion field,mass fractions of major species (H2O,CO2,CO) are well predicted quantitatively.Minor species are well predicted qualitatively.In the present study,the simulations conducted on the Cartesian and cylindrical grids with approximately 6.6× 10 5 nodes are compared.

Thermodynamic evidence for cluster ordering in Cu_(46)Zr_(42)Al_7Y_5 ribbons during glass transition

This work investigated the response of Cu46Zr42Al7Y5 glass ribbons to both dynamic and static heating using differential scanning calorimeter （DSC）. The DSC curve manifests three exothermic responses to dynamic heating, among which the first and the third one are the signatures of the normal sub-Tg （Tg, glass transition temperature） relaxation and the crystallization process, respectively. The second one is attributed to a partial overlap between the endothermic response to the glass transition and the exothermic response to the formation of ordered clusters. The cluster ordering, which begins at the final stage of glass transition, has been verified by the differences in the activation energy of the sub-Tg relax- ation, the cluster ordering and primary crystallization for both the as-spun and annealed ribbons. The cluster ordering could be driven by the large difference between the Zr-Y mixing enthalpy and the Al-Y （or Cu-Y） mixing enthalpy. The findings contribute to distinguishing between phase separation and clusters motion scenarios.