试论我国企业债务市场存在的问题及对策

在我国,长期以来,作为证券市场组成部分的股票、国债和基金市场十分受人关注。而同样是证券市场不可或缺的组成部分的企业债券却是理论上少人问津,实践上徘徊不前。我国企业债券市场存在诸多问题,必须要以相应的对策来改变目前债券的现状,以利于我国证券市场长远地持续发展。

A Modified Certainty Coefficient Method(M-CF) for Debris Flow Susceptibility Assessment:A Case Study for the Wenchuan Earthquake Meizoseismal Areas

In the meizoseismal areas hit by the China Wenchuan earthquake on May 12, 2008, the disasterprone environment has changed dramatically, making the susceptibility assessment of debris flow more complex and uncertain. After the earthquake, debris flow hazards occurred frequently and effective susceptibility assessment of debris flow has become extremely important. Shenxi gully in Du Jiangyan city, located in the meizoseismal areas, was selected as the study area. Based on the research of disaster-prone environment and the main factors controlling debris flow, the susceptibility zonations of debris flow were mapped using factor weight method(FW), certainty coefficient method(CF) and geomorphic information entropy method(GI). Through comparative analysis, the study showed that these three methods underestimated susceptible degree of debris flow when used in the meizoseismal areas of Wenchuan earthquake. In order to solve this problem, this paper developed a modified certainty coefficient method(M-CF) to reflect the impact of rich loose materials on the susceptible degree of debris flow. In the modified method, the distribution and area of loose materials were obtained by field investigations and postearthquake remote sensing image, and four data sets, namely, lithology, elevation, slop and aspect, wereused to calculate the CF values. The result of M-CF method is in agreement with field investigations and the accuracy of the method is satisfied. The method has a wide application to the susceptibility assessment of debris flow in the earthquake stricken areas.

Projection of temperature change and extreme temperature events in the Lancang–Mekong River basin

The Lancang–Mekong River basin(LMRB) is under increasing threat from global warming. In this paper, the projection of future climate in the LMRB is explored by focusing on the temperature change and extreme temperature events. First, the authors evaluate the bias of temperature simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting model. Then, correction is made for the simulation by comparing with observation based on the non-parametric quantile mapping using robust empirical quantiles(RQUANT) method. Furthermore, using the corrected model results, the future climate projections of temperature and extreme temperature events in this basin during 2016–35, 2046–65, and 2080–99 are analyzed. The study shows that RQUANT can effectively reduce the bias of simulation results. After correction, the simulation can capture the spatial features and trends of mean temperature over the LMRB, as well as the extreme temperature events. Besides, it can reproduce the spatial and temporal distributions of the major modes. In the future, the temperature will keep increasing, and the warming in the southern basin will be more intense in the wet season than the dry season. The number of extreme high-temperature days exhibits an increasing trend, while the number of extreme low-temperature days shows a decreasing trend. Based on empirical orthogonal function analysis, the dominant feature of temperature over this basin shows a consistent change. The second mode shows a seesaw pattern.

Evaluation of cathode quality and damage of aluminium electrolytic cell based on non-destructive technology

To evaluate the quality and damage condition of the electrolyzer,wave velocity detection technology and impact echo technology were used to detect the cathode part of the electrolyzer.The experimental results show that wave velocity is linearly related to the porosity,and there is also a linear relationship between wave velocity and the square root of reciprocal density in cathode carbon blocks(CCBs)before installation into electrolyzer.Combined with detection results of wave velocity and voltage drop,the large-size CCBs with relatively good quality can be found.Through the impact echo technology on cathode steel rods(CSRs),the results of the on-site detection show that the damage condition of CSRs can be effectively evaluated,and the damage location of CSRs can be determined.This study proposes a novel and quantifiable method for the evaluation of cathode quality and damage,which provides a reference for prolonging the service life of the electrolyzer.

A Review of China-US Economic and Trade Relations (2007-2015)

In order to find indications for future bilateral relations, it is worth reviewing the development of China-US economic and trade relations in recent history. Generally speaking, the nine years between 2007 and 2015 saw non-stop progress in China and US trade and economic ties. The China-US interdependent and complementary economic and trade connections ensure that bilateral relations are constantly developing and merging following their interdependent paths;the global challenges, such as the financial crisis and recent extreme weather events, have allowed China and the US to be in the same boat,weathering these different forms of turbulence. Decisions on important domestic policies and disputes can now be discussed earlier and effectively following on from the construction of multi-dimensional crisis management mechanisms. But undeniably there are unsettled and conflicting points in their relations, such as the fact that the US strategically excludes China from its free trade agenda, not willing to accept many everyday items manufactured by China. This is a major obstacle preventing their relationships deepening. History tells us, in future, if both sides could have a bigger vision, relations would better develop, for the new type of major power relations and the subsequent road would be less rocky and bring more benefits for the peoples of both countries.

Evaluation of a regional climate model for atmospheric simulation over Arctic river basins

Evaluation on a regional climate model was made with five-month atmospheric simulations over the Arctic river basins. The simulations were performed with a modified mesoscale model, Polar MM5 coupled to the NCAR Land Surface Model （LSM） to illustrate the skill of the coupled model （Polar MM5＋LSM） in simulating atmospheric circulation over the Arctic river basins. Near-surface and upper-air observations were used to verify the simulations. Sensitivity studies between the Polar MM5 and Polar MM5＋LSM simulations revealed that the coupled model could improve the forecast skill for surface variables at some sites. In addition, the extended evaluations of the coupled model simulations on the North American Arctic domain during December 15, 2002 to May 15, 2003 were carried out. The time series plots and statistics of the observations and Polar MM5＋LSM simulations at six stations for near-surface and vertical profiles at 850 hPa and 500 hPa were analyzed. The model was found capable of reproducing the observed atmospheric behavior in both magnitude and variability, especially for temperature and near-surface wind direction.

Evaluation and Projection of Temperature Extremes over China Based on CMIP5 Model

Evaluation and projection of temperature extremes over China are carried out with 8 model datasets from CMIF5. Compared with the NCEP reanalysis data, multi-model weighted ensemble is capable of reproducing the 8 temperature extreme indices and 20-yeax return values of annual maximum/minimum temperatures. The time correlation coefficients of all the 8 indices between multi-model ensemble and the reanalysis can reach a significance level of 0.10. The spatial correlation coefficient of 20-year return level of annual maximum/minimum temperatures is greater than 0.98. Under the RCP4.5 scenario, more extreme warm events and less cold events are expected over China in multi-model ensemble. By the middle of the 21st century, the heat wave duration index will be multiplied 2.6 times. At the end of the 21st century, the cold wave duration index will decrease 71%, and the 20-year return value will increase 4℃ in parts of China for the maximum/minimum temperatures.

Discrepancies in surface temperature between NCEP reanalysis data and station observations over China and their implications

Previous studies show that temporal irreversibility(TI),as an important indicator of the nonlinearity of time series,is almost uniformly overestimated in the daily air temperature anomaly series over China in NCEP reanalysis data,as compared with station observations.Apart from this highly overestimated TI in the NCEP reanalysis,some other important atmospheric metrics,such as predictability and extreme events,might also be overestimated since there are close relations between nonlinearity and predictability/extreme events.In this study,these issues are fully addressed,i.e.,intrinsic predictability,prediction skill,and the number of extreme events.The results show that intrinsic predictability,prediction skill,and the occurrence number of extreme events are also almost uniformly overestimated in the NCEP reanalysis daily minimum and maximum air temperature anomaly series over China.Furthermore,these overestimations of intrinsic predictability,prediction skill,and the number of extreme events are only weakly correlated with the overestimated TI,which indicates that the quality of the NCEP reanalysis should be carefully considered when conclusions on both predictability and extreme events are derived.

Evaluating the Algorithm for Correction of the Bright Band Effects in QPEs with S-, C-and X-Band Dual-Polarized Radars

The bright band, a layer of enhanced radar reflectivity associated with melting ice particles, is a major source of signifi- cant overestimation in quantitative precipitation estimation （QPE） based on the Z-R （reflectivity factor-rain rate） relationship. The effects of the bright band on radar-based QPE can be eliminated by vertical profile of reflectivity （VPR） correction. In this study, we applied bright-band correction algorithms to evaluate three different bands （S-, C- and X-band） of dual-polarized radars and to reduce overestimation errors in Z-R relationship-based QPEs. After the reflectivity was corrected by the algo- rithms using average VPR （AVPR） alone and a combination of average VPR and the vertical profile of the copolar correlation coefficient （AVPR＋CC）, the QPEs were derived. The bright-band correction and resulting QPEs were evaluated in eight precipitation events by comparing to the uncorrected reflectivity and rain-gange observations, separately. The overestimation of Z-R relationship-based QPEs associated with the bright band was reduced after correction by the two schemes for which hourly rainfall was less than 5 mm. For the verification metrics of RMSE （root-mean-square error）, RMAE （relative mean absolute error） and RMB （relative mean bias） of QPEs, averaged over all eight cases, the AVPR method improved from 2.28, 0.94 and 0.78 to 1.55, 0.60 and 0.40, respectively, while the AVPR＋CC method improved to 1.44, 0.55 and 0.30, respectively. The QPEs after AVPR＋CC correction had less overestimation than those after AVPR correction, and similar conclusions were drawn for all three different bands of dual-polarized radars.

New Li-ion Battery Evaluation Research Based on Thermal Property and Heat Generation Behavior of Battery

We do a new Li-ion battery evaluation research on the effects of cell resistance and polariza- tion on the energy loss in batteries based on thermal property and heat generation behavior of battery. Series of 18650 cells with different capacities and electrode materials are evalu- ated by measuring input and output energy which change with charge-discharge time and current. Based on the results of these tests, we build a model of energy loss in cells＇ charge- discharge process, which include Joule heat and polarization heat impact factors. It was reported that Joule heat was caused by cell resistance, which included De-resistance and reaction resistance, and reaction resistance could not be easily obtained through routine test method. Using this new method, we can get the total resistance R and the polarization parameter U. The relationship between R, η, and temperature is also investigated in order to build a general model for series of different Li-ion batteries, and the research can be used in the performance evaluation, state of charge prediction and the measuring of consistency of the batteries.

Dosimetric evaluation using the diode measurements for total skin electron therapy technique

Objective： The purpose of this study was to present the dosimetric study and evaluation the dose delivered to the skin tumor by using diode detector with total skin electron therapy （TSET）. Methods： The total skin electron irradiation （TSEI） technique was used to treat ten patients with histological confirmed mycosis fungoides according to the Stanford staging system at the Radiotherapy Department, National Cancer Institute, Cairo University, Egypt. High dose rate electron beams with low electron energy 5 MeV from a Siemens linear accelerator were used for treatment. Diodes were calibrated at TSET distance 300 cm and field size （35 × 35） cm^2. Results： The result of diodes measurements showed the dose to flat surface of the body was within ：1：10 % from the prescribed dose. Special areas of the body such as the perineum ＆ eyelid showed large deviation up to 30% variation from the prescription dose. Conclusion： The diode results of this study will be used as a quality assurance check for all new patients treated with TSET and to compare it to the prescribed dose delivered to the patients. It is recommends to evaluate the diodes measurements for all patients throughout the full treatment cycle and to identify individually the boost dose areas.

Preliminary Assessment of Operational Downtime of Sea Ports and Berthing Facilities through Numerical Modelling

Downtime due to adverse wave conditions for vessels at berth is an important commercial aspect in the planning and development of a sea port or a berthing terminal. This paper describes a practical technique for preliminary assessment of operational downtime at a proposed bulk terminal. Time-series wind and wave data at an offshore location was purchased. Numerical modelling was then carried out using the MIKE21 SW （spectral wave） model developed by DHI （Deutsches Hydrographisches Institut） to transform these offshore waves into inshore in order to derive wave conditions at the berth. Both wind-waves and swell-waves were considered. Waves affecting the head and beam of a vessel were considered separately for a wide range of vessel sizes with DT （displacement tonnage） ranging from 5,000 tons to 〉 200,000 tons. The limiting wave height H5% was used. Operational downtime was also calculated using significant wave height, Hs as a criterion with limits ofHs = 1.0 m for beam seas and Hs = 1.5 m for head seas. The methodology and lessons learnt from the study can be applied for the development of any sea port worldwide.

Experimental Evaluation of the Post-ultimate Strength Behavior of a Ship＇s Hull Girder in Waves

Experimental investigations into the collapse behavior of a box-shape hull girder subjected to extreme wave-induced loads are presented.The experiment was performed using a scaled model in a tank.In the middle of the scaled model,sacrificial specimens with circular pillar and trough shapes which respectively show different bending moment-displacement characteristics were mounted to compare the dynamic collapse characteristics of the hull girder in waves.The specimens were designed by using finite element(FE)-analysis.Prior to the tank tests,static four-point-bending tests were conducted to detect the load-carrying capacity of the hull girder.It was shown that the load-carrying capacity of a ship including reduction of the capacity after the ultimate strength can be reproduced experimentally by employing the trough type specimens.Tank tests using these specimens were performed under a focused wave in which the hull girder collapses under once and repetitive focused waves.It was shown from the multiple collapse tests that the increase rate of collapse becomes higher once the load-carrying capacity enters the reduction path while the increase rate is lower before reaching the ultimate strength.

An improved method to assess the required strength of cemented backfill in underground stopes with an open face

Backfill is increasingly used in underground mines to reduce the surface impact from the wastes produced by the mining operations. But the main objectives of backfilling are to improve ground stability and reduce ore dilution. To this end, the backfill in a stope must possess a minimum strength to remain self-standing during mining of an adjacent stope. This required strength is often estimated using a solution proposed by Mitchell and co-workers, which was based on a limit equilibrium analysis of a wedge exposed by the open face. In this paper, three dimensional numerical simulations have been performed to assess the behavior of the wedge model. A new limit equilibrium solution is proposed, based on the backfill displacements obtained from the simulations. Comparisons are made between the proposed solution and experimental and numerical modeling results. Compared with the previous solution, a better agreement is obtained between the new solution and experimental results for the required cohesion and factor of safety. For large scale(field) conditions, the results also show that the required strength obtained from the proposed solution corresponds quite well to the simulated backfill response.

Three-dimensional analysis of slopes reinforced with piles

Based on the upper bound of limit analysis, the plane-strain analysis of the slopes reinforced with a row of piles to the 3D case was extended. A 3D rotational failure mechanism was adopted to yield the upper bound of the factor of safety. Parametric studies were carried out to explore the end effects of the slope failures and the effects of the pile location and diameter on the safety of the reinforced slopes. The results demonstrate that the end effects nearly have no effects on the most suitable location of the installed piles but have significant influence on the safety of the slopes. For a slope constrained to a narrow width, the slope becomes more stable owing to the contribution of the end effects. When the slope is reinforced with a row of piles in small space between piles, the effects of group piles are significant for evaluating the safety of slopes. The presented method is more appropriate for assessing the stability of slopes reinforced with piles and can be also utilized in the design of plies stabilizing the unstable slopes.

From sea to land: assessment of the bio-transport of phosphorus by penguins in Antarctica

In Antarctica, the marine ecosystem is dynamically interrelated with the terrestrial ecosystem. An example of the link between these two ecosystems is the biogeochemical cycle of phosphorus. Bio- vectors, such as penguins, transport phosphorus from sea to land, play a key role in this cycle. In this paper, we selected three colonies of penguins, the most important seabirds in Antarctica, and computed the annual quantity of phosphorus transferred from sea to land by these birds. Our results show that adult penguins from colonies at Ardley Island, the Vestfold Hills, and Ross Island could transfer phosphorus in the form of guano at up to 12 349, 167 036, and 97 841 kg/a, respectively, over their breeding period. These quantities are equivalent to an annual input of 3.96× 10^9-1.63 × 10^10 kg of seawater to the land of Antarctica. Finally, we discuss the impact of phosphorus on the ice-flee areas of the Antarctica.

Evaluation of Subsoil Corrosivity Condition around Baracaia Area Using the Electrical Resistivity Method--A Case Study from the Muglad Basin, Southwestern Sudan

This paper evaluate subsoil corrosivity using the electrical resistivity method which was carried out to determine the subsoil resistivity and estimate the degree of corrosion, the resistivity measurements were conducted by using SAS300c resistivity meter. This involves applying a voltage into the soil through metal electrode and measuring the resistance to the flow of electric current. An AC-power supplies current flow （I） between two outer electrodes and the resultant voltage different （V） between two inner electrodes is measured using the Wenner Arrangement. The soil resistance given by R = V/I. This needs to be standardized over a unit length, the resistivity p which measured in ohm-m the equation is, ρ= 2ДdR. There are many factors control the ground resistivity such as soil composition, moisture content, pore water chemistry and pH. The results of the survey show inverse proportion between corrosivity and electrical resistivity, therefore resistivity method is very useful to incipient the corrosion as well as effective, quick, reliable and economic method. Structures such as natural gas, crude oil pipelines and steel constructions were reported to have been affected by soil corrosion all around the world, it can be concluded that sub soil corrosivity around the study area increases southwestern ward with depth.

Evaluation of Atmospheric Circulation in the Southern Hemisphere in 20CRv2

Evaluation of the mean climate and climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere （SH） in the Twentieth Century Reanalysis data version 2 （20CRv2） is conducted and the results are compared with the NCEP/NCAR version 2 Reanalysis data （NCEPv2） and the Hadley Center sea-level pressure data （HadSLPv2）.The results show that SH polar High,SH subtropical High,upper level split jet,cross-equatorial flow,Antarctic Oscillation （AAO）,and the pattem of Pacific-South-America （PSA） has been effectively captured by 20CRv2 during 1979-2010,with an apparent zonal asymmetry of AAO in the austral winter （June-July-August,JJA）.The notable upward linear trend of AAO in the entire period of 1871-2010 is represented in both 20CRv2 and HadS1Pv2.The most remarkable discrepancy of the SH climate variability between 20CRv2 and HadSLPv2 occurred in 1897-1920 and was partly caused by such factors as the paucity of meteorological and oceanographic data in the SH to be assimilated,the handling of the specified sea-ice concentration in South Pole,and imperfect climate models.The consistency of these reanalysis data is increased with the use of a large amount of satellite observation and radiosonde data,particularly after 1979.

Evaluation of Heat and Current Characteristics of Bypass Diodes for Fault Detection in Photovoltaic Module

In recent years, PV （photovoltaic） systems have been installed rapidly around the world. However, there is often a delay in the practical application of fault detection in PV systems. In this study, the temperature of BD （bypass diodes） mounted on PV modules was measured for simple and practical fault detection. The temperature of the BD of Module 31 was higher than other modules and a large current passed through one of the BDs. Measuring BD temperatures is easier than other conventional methods of fault detection. From the results of the rise in BD temperature under dark conditions, the increase in temperature increased linearly with increasing current flow. There is a proportional relationship between heat generated and the increasing temperature of the terminal box. The experimental results about surface temperature of the junction box in actual system operation suggested that the electric current through a BD in a terminal box can be known by measuring the surface temperature of the terminal box for PV module fault detection without a system shutdown. Moreover, we tried to evaluate temperature distribution of a terminal box using heat conduction equations. The evaluated results agreed well with the measured results.