This paper presents results from a statistical validation of the hindcasts of surface wind by a high-reso-ution-mesoscale atmospheric numerical model Advanced Research WRF （ARW3.3）, which is set up to force the oper...This paper presents results from a statistical validation of the hindcasts of surface wind by a high-reso-ution-mesoscale atmospheric numerical model Advanced Research WRF （ARW3.3）, which is set up to force the operational coastal ocean forecast system at Indian Na- tional Centre for Ocean Information Services （INCOIS）. Evaluation is carried out based on comparisons of day-3 forecasts of surface wind with in situ and remote-sensing data. The results show that the model predicts the surface wind fields fairly accurately over the west coast of India, with high skill in predicting the surface wind during the pre-monsoon season. The model predicts the diurnal variability of the surface wind with reasonable accuracy. The model simulates the land-sea breeze cycle in the coastal region realistically, which is very clearly observed during the northeast monsoon and pre-monsoon season and is less prominent during the southwest monsoon season.展开更多
On the basis of two ensemble experiments conducted by a general atmospheric circulation model(Institute of Atmospheric Physics nine-level atmospheric general circulation model coupled with land surface model,hereinaft...On the basis of two ensemble experiments conducted by a general atmospheric circulation model(Institute of Atmospheric Physics nine-level atmospheric general circulation model coupled with land surface model,hereinafter referred to as IAP9L_CoLM),the impacts of realistic Eurasian snow conditions on summer climate predictability were investigated.The predictive skill of sea level pressures(SLP)and middle and upper tropospheric geopotential heights at mid-high latitudes of Eurasia was enhanced when improved Eurasian snow conditions were introduced into the model.Furthermore,the model skill in reproducing the interannual variation and spatial distribution of the surface air temperature(SAT)anomalies over China was improved by applying realistic(prescribed)Eurasian snow conditions.The predictive skill of the summer precipitation in China was low;however,when realistic snow conditions were employed,the predictability increased,illustrating the effectiveness of the application of realistic Eurasian snow conditions.Overall,the results of the present study suggested that Eurasian snow conditions have a significant effect on dynamical seasonal prediction in China.When Eurasian snow conditions in the global climate model(GCM)can be more realistically represented,the predictability of summer climate over China increases.展开更多
The risk of violence in psychiatric settings implies the assessment of dynamic predictors to adjust nursing interventions. So as to identify the pattern of aggressive behaviors, assess the dynamic predictors of violen...The risk of violence in psychiatric settings implies the assessment of dynamic predictors to adjust nursing interventions. So as to identify the pattern of aggressive behaviors, assess the dynamic predictors of violence in hospitalized patients, and analyze the predictive qualities of the Brcset Violence Checklist （BVC）, an exploratory/descriptive study was conducted in psychiatric wards in Coimbra, Portugal. The instruments used were： the staff observation aggression scale-revised （SOAS-R）, visual analogue scale （VAS）, and the BVC. For the period of a month, 64 patients with a mean age of 29 years, unemployed, and with psychotic disorders were observed. In this group, 13 people displayed 15 aggressive behaviors of moderate severity, which had consequences for nurses; they were triggered by the denial of something through verbal aggression and controlled by non-restrictive measures. The most common predictors of violence were irritability and boisterousness. It was also concluded that the BVC shows good predictive characteristics （sensitivity and specificity） of violence, thus, it may be considered as a useful and effective instrument to assess the risk of violence and, consequently, to adjust nursing interventions to prevent this phenomenon.展开更多
基金University Grants Commission (UGC) for funding to pursue this work
文摘This paper presents results from a statistical validation of the hindcasts of surface wind by a high-reso-ution-mesoscale atmospheric numerical model Advanced Research WRF （ARW3.3）, which is set up to force the operational coastal ocean forecast system at Indian Na- tional Centre for Ocean Information Services （INCOIS）. Evaluation is carried out based on comparisons of day-3 forecasts of surface wind with in situ and remote-sensing data. The results show that the model predicts the surface wind fields fairly accurately over the west coast of India, with high skill in predicting the surface wind during the pre-monsoon season. The model predicts the diurnal variability of the surface wind with reasonable accuracy. The model simulates the land-sea breeze cycle in the coastal region realistically, which is very clearly observed during the northeast monsoon and pre-monsoon season and is less prominent during the southwest monsoon season.
基金supported by the Special Public Sector Research of Meteorology (Grant No. GYHY200906018)the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2009CB421407)the National Key Technologies R&D Program of China (Grant No. 2007BAC29B03)
文摘On the basis of two ensemble experiments conducted by a general atmospheric circulation model(Institute of Atmospheric Physics nine-level atmospheric general circulation model coupled with land surface model,hereinafter referred to as IAP9L_CoLM),the impacts of realistic Eurasian snow conditions on summer climate predictability were investigated.The predictive skill of sea level pressures(SLP)and middle and upper tropospheric geopotential heights at mid-high latitudes of Eurasia was enhanced when improved Eurasian snow conditions were introduced into the model.Furthermore,the model skill in reproducing the interannual variation and spatial distribution of the surface air temperature(SAT)anomalies over China was improved by applying realistic(prescribed)Eurasian snow conditions.The predictive skill of the summer precipitation in China was low;however,when realistic snow conditions were employed,the predictability increased,illustrating the effectiveness of the application of realistic Eurasian snow conditions.Overall,the results of the present study suggested that Eurasian snow conditions have a significant effect on dynamical seasonal prediction in China.When Eurasian snow conditions in the global climate model(GCM)can be more realistically represented,the predictability of summer climate over China increases.
文摘The risk of violence in psychiatric settings implies the assessment of dynamic predictors to adjust nursing interventions. So as to identify the pattern of aggressive behaviors, assess the dynamic predictors of violence in hospitalized patients, and analyze the predictive qualities of the Brcset Violence Checklist （BVC）, an exploratory/descriptive study was conducted in psychiatric wards in Coimbra, Portugal. The instruments used were： the staff observation aggression scale-revised （SOAS-R）, visual analogue scale （VAS）, and the BVC. For the period of a month, 64 patients with a mean age of 29 years, unemployed, and with psychotic disorders were observed. In this group, 13 people displayed 15 aggressive behaviors of moderate severity, which had consequences for nurses; they were triggered by the denial of something through verbal aggression and controlled by non-restrictive measures. The most common predictors of violence were irritability and boisterousness. It was also concluded that the BVC shows good predictive characteristics （sensitivity and specificity） of violence, thus, it may be considered as a useful and effective instrument to assess the risk of violence and, consequently, to adjust nursing interventions to prevent this phenomenon.
