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误差判别统计量和参数初值对抗差估计的影响分析 被引量:1
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作者 李金龙 徐君毅 《大地测量与地球动力学》 CSCD 北大核心 2010年第3期96-99,共4页
针对抗差估计中难于获得可靠参数初值的问题,提出基于高崩溃点的初始等价权求取参数初值,以提高抗差估计的崩溃污染率。计算结果表明,采用该方法求得参数初值并求解残差能有效抵制粗差对残差的影响,有利于计算合理的等价权,在观测量粗... 针对抗差估计中难于获得可靠参数初值的问题,提出基于高崩溃点的初始等价权求取参数初值,以提高抗差估计的崩溃污染率。计算结果表明,采用该方法求得参数初值并求解残差能有效抵制粗差对残差的影响,有利于计算合理的等价权,在观测量粗差污染率较高时,该方法仍有效。 展开更多
关键词 抗差估计 误差判别统计 参数初值 单位权均方差因子 崩溃点
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基于国家气象观测站逐日降水格点数据的交叉检验误差分析 被引量:28
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作者 熊秋芬 黄玫 +1 位作者 熊敏诠 胡江林 《高原气象》 CSCD 北大核心 2011年第6期1615-1625,共11页
利用2006-2008年2 403个国家气象观测站地面雨量计的逐日降水量资料,采用与网格点最近的观测站有、无降水确定该网格点有、无降水和Barnes插值方案确定网格点降水大小的混合插值方案,得到全国空间分辨率为0.1°×0.1°(约10... 利用2006-2008年2 403个国家气象观测站地面雨量计的逐日降水量资料,采用与网格点最近的观测站有、无降水确定该网格点有、无降水和Barnes插值方案确定网格点降水大小的混合插值方案,得到全国空间分辨率为0.1°×0.1°(约10km×10km)的逐日降水量格点数据,在此基础上通过交叉检验方法统计格点数据的误差,从相关系数、平均偏差、平均绝对误差、平均相对误差、均方根误差、复合相对误差、观测均方根、插值均方根、相对方差比率和降水概率密度函数分布等方面研究了在该混合插值方案下得到的我国逐日降水格点数据的误差分布,分析了误差统计量的时空变化特征。交叉检验的统计结果表明:(1)观测站逐日降水量的估计序列(即在不使用该观测站实际观测情况下由周围观测站插值得到网格数据,再由网格数据反插观测站估计值)与实际观测序列比较,两者的相关系数为0.81,平均偏差为-0.02mm.d-1,平均绝对误差为1.3mm.d-1,平均相对误差为58.67%,均方根误差为4.5mm.d-1,复合相对误差为41.17%,相对方差比率为93.12%,即格点化的降水资料具有较高的精度。(2)观测站逐日降水量的估计序列与实际观测序列的概率密度分布比较接近,插值误差基本符合正态分布。(3)逐日降水格点误差的空间分布规律是:平均绝对误差和均方根误差从我国西北向东南逐步增大;而平均相对误差的分布特点是东部特别是东部平原小、西部相对大;相关系数的分布特点是东部高、西部相对低。(4)误差统计量的逐月变化规律是:绝对误差和均方根误差明显表现为随月降水总量的增减而相应增减,一般是7月达最大,12月为全年最小值;而相关系数的大小与降水性质有关,一般大尺度系统性降水多时(11月)相关系数偏高,局地对流性降水偏多时(8月)相关系数偏低。 展开更多
关键词 降水 空间插值 交叉检验 误差统计量
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城域网应用层流量异常检测与分析 被引量:3
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作者 裴唯 袁小坊 +2 位作者 王东 董智超 谢高岗 《计算机应用研究》 CSCD 北大核心 2010年第6期2222-2225,共4页
首先对流量数据按应用层协议进行分类分析,采用小波分析对原始流量数据进行去噪处理,建立流量数据矩阵;然后采用主元分析(PCA)方法进行流量建模;在此基础上,通过SPE统计量的控制图能快速检测出流量异常,结合SPE统计量的贡献图可以分析... 首先对流量数据按应用层协议进行分类分析,采用小波分析对原始流量数据进行去噪处理,建立流量数据矩阵;然后采用主元分析(PCA)方法进行流量建模;在此基础上,通过SPE统计量的控制图能快速检测出流量异常,结合SPE统计量的贡献图可以分析出导致异常的主要原因。实验结果表明,小波去噪能降低异常检测的误警率,SPE贡献图可有效分析流量异常的原因。 展开更多
关键词 主元分析 小波去噪 平方预测误差统计量 贡献图
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基于支持向量回归的股市波动性预测
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作者 张楠 孙德山 《现代商业》 2008年第36期37-37,36,共2页
详细介绍利用支持向量回归方法进行金融时间序列预测的建模原理。将其应用到深圳股票市场的数据,进行预测。最后运用6种误差统计量对预测结果与基于BP算法、基于ARCH(1,1)模型、基于GARCH(1,1)模型的4种预测结果进行比较,并得出结论:基... 详细介绍利用支持向量回归方法进行金融时间序列预测的建模原理。将其应用到深圳股票市场的数据,进行预测。最后运用6种误差统计量对预测结果与基于BP算法、基于ARCH(1,1)模型、基于GARCH(1,1)模型的4种预测结果进行比较,并得出结论:基于支持向量回归的预测方法最优。 展开更多
关键词 金融时间序列 支持向回归 BP算法ARCH(1 1)模型 GARCH(1 1)模型 误差统计量
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一种顾及观测质量信息的自适应抗差Kalman滤波方法 被引量:2
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作者 戴粤 戴吾蛟 《测绘工程》 CSCD 2020年第3期67-70,75,共5页
针对观测数据含有异常粗差且无多余观测的应用情形,提出一种顾及观测质量信息的自适应抗差Kalman滤波方法。该方法两步计算得到自适应因子和抗差等价权矩阵,即首先利用顾及观测质量信息的抗差Kalman滤波得到消除观测粗差影响的参数估计... 针对观测数据含有异常粗差且无多余观测的应用情形,提出一种顾及观测质量信息的自适应抗差Kalman滤波方法。该方法两步计算得到自适应因子和抗差等价权矩阵,即首先利用顾及观测质量信息的抗差Kalman滤波得到消除观测粗差影响的参数估计值,然后根据该值构造动力学模型误差判别统计量并计算自适应因子。以某边坡GPS变形监测数据序列处理为例,利用RPDOP(Relative Position Dilution of Precision)值作为观测质量信息进行处理分析,结果表明该方法能够有效控制动力学模型误差和观测粗差对滤波估值的影响。 展开更多
关键词 自适应抗差Kalman滤波 观测质信息 模型误差判别统计 自适应因子
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加权PCA残差空间的加速度传感器故障诊断 被引量:2
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作者 李立力 刘纲 +1 位作者 张亮亮 李青 《振动.测试与诊断》 EI CSCD 北大核心 2021年第5期1007-1013,1039,1040,共9页
针对加速度传感器在健康监测系统恶劣工作环境下易发生故障的问题,提出一种基于残差空间主元加权统计量的传感器故障诊断方法。首先,将传感器故障采用故障方向和故障幅度向量来表征,并求取传感器故障在残差空间的投影;其次,通过理论推... 针对加速度传感器在健康监测系统恶劣工作环境下易发生故障的问题,提出一种基于残差空间主元加权统计量的传感器故障诊断方法。首先,将传感器故障采用故障方向和故障幅度向量来表征,并求取传感器故障在残差空间的投影;其次,通过理论推导得出平方预测误差(squared prediction error,简称SPE)统计量与残差空间主向量中各元素呈平方关系,将各元素作为SPE统计量的非线性加权系数;然后,结合贝叶斯推论,采用加权后的SPE统计量计算累积贡献率,并将其作为传感器故障定位的指标。三跨连续梁数值算例结果表明,传统方法对两类常见的增益和偏差故障诊断率分别为5.45%和3.43%,所提方法的诊断率分别为69.8%和100%,且在两种传感器故障类型下均能准确定位故障传感器;意大利帕尔马Lamberti实桥测试数据的算例表明,所提方法对增益故障的诊断率达到77.58%,且能正确定位发生故障的传感器通道。 展开更多
关键词 结构健康监测 故障诊断 残差空间 平方预测误差统计量 累积贡献率
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Semiparametric Regression and Model Refining 被引量:13
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作者 SUN Haiyan WU Yun 《Geo-Spatial Information Science》 2002年第4期10-13,共4页
This paper presents a semiparametric adjustment method suitable for general cases.Assuming that the regularizer matrix is positive definite,the calculation method is discussed and the corresponding formulae are presen... This paper presents a semiparametric adjustment method suitable for general cases.Assuming that the regularizer matrix is positive definite,the calculation method is discussed and the corresponding formulae are presented.Finally,a simulated adjustment problem is constructed to explain the method given in this paper.The results from the semiparametric model and G_M model are compared.The results demonstrate that the model errors or the systematic errors of the observations can be detected correctly with the semiparametric estimate method. 展开更多
关键词 model error systematric error semiparametric regression model refine regularizer matrix smoothing parameter
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Resolution performance analysis of cumulants-based rank reduction estimator in presence of unexpected modeling errors
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作者 王鼎 吴瑛 《Journal of Central South University》 SCIE EI CAS 2013年第11期3116-3130,共15页
Compared to the rank reduction estimator (RARE) based on second-order statistics (called SOS-RARE), the RARE employing fourth-order cumulants (referred to as FOC-RARE) is capable of dealing with more sources and... Compared to the rank reduction estimator (RARE) based on second-order statistics (called SOS-RARE), the RARE employing fourth-order cumulants (referred to as FOC-RARE) is capable of dealing with more sources and mitigating the negative influences of the Gaussian colored noise. However, in the presence of unexpected modeling errors, the resolution behavior of the FOC-RARE also deteriorate significantly as SOS-RARE, even for a known array covariance matrix. For this reason, the angle resolution capability of the FOC-RARE was theoretically analyzed. Firstly, the explicit formula for the mathematical expectation of the FOC-RARE spatial spectrum was derived through the second-order perturbation analysis method. Then, with the assumption that the unexpected modeling errors were drawn from complex circular Gaussian distribution, the theoretical formulas for the angle resolution probability of the FOC-RARE were presented. Numerical experiments validate our analytical results and demonstrate that the FOC-RARE has higher robustness to the unexpected modeling en'ors than that of the SOS-RARE from the resolution point of view. 展开更多
关键词 performance analysis rank reduction estimator (RARE) fourth-order cumulants (FOC) spatial spectrum angle resolution probability unexpected modeling errors
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基于主成分分析法的动车组空调故障检测技术研究
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作者 游进 《轨道交通装备与技术》 2023年第2期29-33,36,共6页
针对动车组空调系统难以建立准确的模型进行故障检测的问题,采用主成分分析法对空调系统采集的大量运行数据进行特征提取,建立动车组空调系统主元模型,通过平方预测误差统计量指标进行故障检测。并使用运用中采集的蒸发器脏堵、制冷剂... 针对动车组空调系统难以建立准确的模型进行故障检测的问题,采用主成分分析法对空调系统采集的大量运行数据进行特征提取,建立动车组空调系统主元模型,通过平方预测误差统计量指标进行故障检测。并使用运用中采集的蒸发器脏堵、制冷剂泄漏、传感器异常等故障数据进行了检测测试,取得了良好的效果。 展开更多
关键词 动车组 空调系统 主成分分析 平方预测误差统计量 故障检测
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Asymptotic Normality of LS Estimate in Simple Linear EV Regression Model 被引量:1
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作者 Jixue LIU 《Chinese Annals of Mathematics,Series B》 SCIE CSCD 2006年第6期675-682,共8页
Though EV model is theoretically more appropriate for applications in which measurement errors exist, people are still more inclined to use the ordinary regression models and the traditional LS method owing to the dif... Though EV model is theoretically more appropriate for applications in which measurement errors exist, people are still more inclined to use the ordinary regression models and the traditional LS method owing to the difficulties of statistical inference and computation. So it is meaningful to study the performance of LS estimate in EV model. In this article we obtain general conditions guaranteeing the asymptotic normality of the estimates of regression coefficients in the linear EV model. It is noticeable that the result is in some way different from the corresponding result in the ordinary regression model. 展开更多
关键词 EV model LS estimate Asymptotic normality
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Statistical Inference for Partially Linear Regression Models with Measurement Errors 被引量:6
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作者 Jinhong YOU Qinfeng XU Bin ZHOU 《Chinese Annals of Mathematics,Series B》 SCIE CSCD 2008年第2期207-222,共16页
In this paper,the authors investigate three aspects of statistical inference for the partially linear regression models where some covariates are measured with errors.Firstly, a bandwidth selection procedure is propos... In this paper,the authors investigate three aspects of statistical inference for the partially linear regression models where some covariates are measured with errors.Firstly, a bandwidth selection procedure is proposed,which is a combination of the differencebased technique and GCV method.Secondly,a goodness-of-fit test procedure is proposed, which is an extension of the generalized likelihood technique.Thirdly,a variable selection procedure for the parametric part is provided based on the nonconcave penalization and corrected profile least squares.Same as"Variable selection via nonconcave penalized likelihood and its oracle properties"(J.Amer.Statist.Assoc.,96,2001,1348-1360),it is shown that the resulting estimator has an oracle property with a proper choice of regularization parameters and penalty function.Simulation studies are conducted to illustrate the finite sample performances of the proposed procedures. 展开更多
关键词 Partially linear model Measurement error Bandwidth selection Goodness-of-fit test Oracle property
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A new probability decoding scheme based on genetic algorithm for FEC codes in optical transmission systems 被引量:1
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作者 袁建国 王琳 +2 位作者 何清萍 李好 王永 《Optoelectronics Letters》 EI 2012年第5期376-379,共4页
Based on the genetic algorithm(GA),a new genetic probability decoding(GPD) scheme for forward error correction(FEC) codes in optical transmission systems is proposed.The GPD scheme can further offset the quantificatio... Based on the genetic algorithm(GA),a new genetic probability decoding(GPD) scheme for forward error correction(FEC) codes in optical transmission systems is proposed.The GPD scheme can further offset the quantification error of the hard decision by making use of the channel interference probability and statistics information to restore the maximal likelihood transmission code word.The theoretical performance analysis and the simulation result show that the proposed GPD scheme has the advantages of lower decoding complexity,faster decoding speed and better decoding correction-error performance.Therefore,the proposed GPD algorithm is a better practical decoding algorithm. 展开更多
关键词 DECODING Error statistics Genetic algorithms Light transmission Probabilistic logics PROBABILITY
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TESTING SERIAL CORRELATION IN SEMIPARAMETRIC VARYING COEFFICIENT PARTIALLY LINEAR ERRORS-IN-VARIABLES MODEL 被引量:5
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作者 Xuemei HU Feng LIU Zhizhong WANG 《Journal of Systems Science & Complexity》 SCIE EI CSCD 2009年第3期483-494,共12页
The authors propose a V_(N,p) test statistic for testing finite-order serial correlation in asemiparametric varying coefficient partially linear errors-in-variables model.The test statistic is shownto have asymptotic ... The authors propose a V_(N,p) test statistic for testing finite-order serial correlation in asemiparametric varying coefficient partially linear errors-in-variables model.The test statistic is shownto have asymptotic normal distribution under the null hypothesis of no serial correlation.Some MonteCarlo experiments are conducted to examine the finite sample performance of the proposed V_(N,p) teststatistic.Simulation results confirm that the proposed test performs satisfactorily in estimated sizeand power. 展开更多
关键词 Asymptotic normality local linear regression measurement error modified profile leastsquares estimation partial linear model testing serial correlation varying coefficient model.
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Residual Cusum Test for Parameters Change in ARCH Errors Models with Deterministic Trend
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作者 金浩 田铮 《Journal of Mathematical Research and Exposition》 CSCD 2009年第6期1011-1021,共11页
This paper analyzes the problem of testing for parameters change in ARCH errors models with deterministic trend based on residual cusum test. It is shown that the asymptotically limiting distribution of the residual c... This paper analyzes the problem of testing for parameters change in ARCH errors models with deterministic trend based on residual cusum test. It is shown that the asymptotically limiting distribution of the residual cusum test statistic is still the sup of a standard Brownian bridge under null hypothesis. In order to check this, we carry out a Monte Carlo simulation and examine the return of IBM data. The results from both simulation and real data analysis support our claim. We also can explain this phenomenon from a theoretical viewpoint that the variance in ARCH model in mainly determined by its parameters. 展开更多
关键词 residual cusum test invariance principle Brownian bridge change point.
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