Targeted observation is an observation strategy by which the concerned phenomenon is observed. In geoscienee, targeted ob- servation is mainly related to the forecasts of weather events or predictions of climate event...Targeted observation is an observation strategy by which the concerned phenomenon is observed. In geoscienee, targeted ob- servation is mainly related to the forecasts of weather events or predictions of climate events. This paper will first review the history of targeted observation, and then introduce the main methods used in targeted observation. The discussion on the theo- retical basis of targeted observation includes its advantages and limitations. After presenting the current situation of domestic and international targeted observations in atmospheric and oceanic sciences, the methods used for targeted observation, and their effect evaluation and testing are mainly discussed here. Finally, the author presents his suggestion about the prospect of further development in the field, and how to extend the method of targeted observation to deal with numerical model errors.展开更多
This paper addresses estimation and its asymptotics of mean transformation θ = E[h（X）] of a random variable X based on n lid. observations from errors-in-variables model Y = X＋ v, where v is a measurement error wi...This paper addresses estimation and its asymptotics of mean transformation θ = E[h（X）] of a random variable X based on n lid. observations from errors-in-variables model Y = X＋ v, where v is a measurement error with a known distribution and h（.） is a known smooth function. The asymptotics of deconvolution kernel estimator for ordinary smooth error distribution and expectation extrapolation estimator are given for normal error distribution respectively. Under some mild regularity conditions, the consistency and asymptotically normality are obtained for both type of estimators. Simulations show they have good performance.展开更多
This paper studies the relationships of the monetary policy, stock market and real investment in China based on Markov-Switching-Vector Error Correction Model. It shows that there is a cointegration relationship among...This paper studies the relationships of the monetary policy, stock market and real investment in China based on Markov-Switching-Vector Error Correction Model. It shows that there is a cointegration relationship among the three ones. We disclose the riddle that the stock market is in recession, but the growth rate of economy is very high in recent years. We also find that Chinese economy operated stably most of the time during the past 8 years. But if the economy is difficult to continue its high growth, it is more likely to appear ＂hard landing＂ than ＂soft landing＂. The impulse response analysis indicates the asymmetry between the ＂too cold＂ economy regime and the ＂too hot＂ regime. And the economy will oscillate during the subsequent time when it is shocked under the ＂too hot＂ regime.展开更多
基金sponsored by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41230420)the National Basic Research Program of China(Grant No.2012CB417404)
文摘Targeted observation is an observation strategy by which the concerned phenomenon is observed. In geoscienee, targeted ob- servation is mainly related to the forecasts of weather events or predictions of climate events. This paper will first review the history of targeted observation, and then introduce the main methods used in targeted observation. The discussion on the theo- retical basis of targeted observation includes its advantages and limitations. After presenting the current situation of domestic and international targeted observations in atmospheric and oceanic sciences, the methods used for targeted observation, and their effect evaluation and testing are mainly discussed here. Finally, the author presents his suggestion about the prospect of further development in the field, and how to extend the method of targeted observation to deal with numerical model errors.
基金This research is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No. 19771011 and 10071009) the RFDP (No. 20020027010) of MOE.
文摘This paper addresses estimation and its asymptotics of mean transformation θ = E[h（X）] of a random variable X based on n lid. observations from errors-in-variables model Y = X＋ v, where v is a measurement error with a known distribution and h（.） is a known smooth function. The asymptotics of deconvolution kernel estimator for ordinary smooth error distribution and expectation extrapolation estimator are given for normal error distribution respectively. Under some mild regularity conditions, the consistency and asymptotically normality are obtained for both type of estimators. Simulations show they have good performance.
文摘This paper studies the relationships of the monetary policy, stock market and real investment in China based on Markov-Switching-Vector Error Correction Model. It shows that there is a cointegration relationship among the three ones. We disclose the riddle that the stock market is in recession, but the growth rate of economy is very high in recent years. We also find that Chinese economy operated stably most of the time during the past 8 years. But if the economy is difficult to continue its high growth, it is more likely to appear ＂hard landing＂ than ＂soft landing＂. The impulse response analysis indicates the asymmetry between the ＂too cold＂ economy regime and the ＂too hot＂ regime. And the economy will oscillate during the subsequent time when it is shocked under the ＂too hot＂ regime.
