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“直觉调整差误”偏向对贝叶斯推理成绩的影响 被引量:1
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作者 史滋福 张庆林 《心理科学》 CSSCI CSCD 北大核心 2011年第4期970-973,共4页
采用贝叶斯推理问题作为实验材料,探讨被试解决贝叶斯推理问题的启发式策略,从认知偏向的角度分析该问题的困难原因。结果发现:(1)贝叶斯推理问题解决过程中的"可得性启发"与后验概率估计过程中的"直觉调整差误"密... 采用贝叶斯推理问题作为实验材料,探讨被试解决贝叶斯推理问题的启发式策略,从认知偏向的角度分析该问题的困难原因。结果发现:(1)贝叶斯推理问题解决过程中的"可得性启发"与后验概率估计过程中的"直觉调整差误"密切相关;(2)贝叶斯推理问题解决过程中文、理科被试都同样会产生"直觉调整差误"偏向;(3)贝叶斯推理问题解决过程中的后验概率估计值和对推理问题中包括"虚报率"信息的命题的"可得性"测量所得主观概率之间存在显著的负相关。 展开更多
关键词 贝叶斯推理 认知偏向 直觉调整 后验概率
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电力系统调度运行存在的问题与解决方法探讨 被引量:29
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作者 司徒友 《广东科技》 2009年第22期85-86,共2页
电力系统调度是组织、指挥、指导和协调电网运行,防止误操作事故是反事故工作中的重中之重,也是安全生产长期紧抓不放的工作重点。但是,由于厂站人员误操作而引发的事故仍时有发生,在关注厂站现场防止误操作的同时,不应忽视调度员可能... 电力系统调度是组织、指挥、指导和协调电网运行,防止误操作事故是反事故工作中的重中之重,也是安全生产长期紧抓不放的工作重点。但是,由于厂站人员误操作而引发的事故仍时有发生,在关注厂站现场防止误操作的同时,不应忽视调度员可能出现的误操作。本文分析了调度员误下令、误调整的原因及如何防止一些方法。 展开更多
关键词 电力系统调度 操作 误调整 预防措施 解决方法
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墨泰两国金融危机比较及启示
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作者 夏阳 《金融经济》 1997年第10期22-25,共0页
1997年3月份以来,泰国爆发金融危机,并波及到整个东南亚金融市场,成为国际金融界和全球关注的焦点。联想到两年前曾经爆发的墨西哥金融危机,笔者试图从两国金融危机的比较中以期寻找一些有益的启示。
关键词 比较及启示 墨西哥金融危机 泰国 汇率体制 外资 金融市场 经常项目赤字 中和干预 误调整 流人
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Error Control Strategy in Ultrasonic Body Area Networks
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作者 Wenbin Liu Yongjian Yang +1 位作者 Fan Wang En Wang 《China Communications》 SCIE CSCD 2016年第11期244-259,共16页
Recently,ultrasonic waves had been introduced as the transmission medium in Body Area Networks(BANs) to reduce the incalculable damage caused by radio waves. However,the communications based on ultrasonic waves suffer... Recently,ultrasonic waves had been introduced as the transmission medium in Body Area Networks(BANs) to reduce the incalculable damage caused by radio waves. However,the communications based on ultrasonic waves suffer from poor propagation of signals in air and consume too much energy. To address these limitations,firstly,we make the theoretical analysis to ensure ultrasonic waves could be used in BANs(UBANs). Then,we propose an error control strategy in UBANs to dynamically adjust the error control scheme and the Max-Retries based on the current channel state,which is called UECS. The UECS is based on IEEE 802.15.6 standards and considering the characteristics of ultrasonic waves in BANs. Simulation results show that UECS achieves better performance in terms of packet delivery ratio and energy consumption compared with the traditional strategies. 展开更多
关键词 body area networks ULTRASONIC error control ultrasonic transducer
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Impacts of Coordinated Traffic Signal Control Strategies and Bus Priority
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《Journal of Civil Engineering and Architecture》 2012年第1期81-92,共12页
Delay in signalized intersections may constitute a significant part of bus journey times in urban environment. Providing priority for buses at traffic signals can be an effective measure to reduce this delay. Bus prio... Delay in signalized intersections may constitute a significant part of bus journey times in urban environment. Providing priority for buses at traffic signals can be an effective measure to reduce this delay. Bus priority in Swedish urban traffic signal systems are normally coordinated with fixed time plan selection. Within this framework local traffic actuated signal timing adjustments are applied based on detector inputs aimed to reduce the number of vehicles in the dilemma zone. Active bus priority is also achieved with the aim to display green signal at the arrival of the bus to the stop line. Due to lack of knowledge of traffic performance impacts of these techniques a major research study was undertaken funded by the Swedish Road Administration. The aim was to evaluate the following control strategies using Stockholm as case study: (1) Fixed time coordination (FTC); (2) Fixed time coordination with local signal timing adjustment (FTC-LTA); (3) FTC-LTA with active bus priority (PRIBUSS); (4) Self-optimizing control (SPOT) with active bus priority. The methodologies for the study included field data collection using mobile and stationary techniques, offiine signal timing calculations with TRANSYT, microscopic simulation modeling using the HUTSIM model. The study obtained the following results: (1) Local traffic adjustment with the manual FTC reduced total delay by 1%. (2) Signal timings determined using TRANSYT reduced the average intersection delay by 9% compared to manual signal settings. (3) Local traffic adjustment reduced total delay by a further 5%. (4) Bus travel time was reduced by 11% using PRIBUSS, and 28% using SPOT. (5) Travel time for all vehicles did not increase using PRIBUSS, and was reduced by 6.5% with SPOT. Results of comparing PRIBUSS and SPOT to FTC-LTA were shown to be statistically significant. 展开更多
关键词 Bus priority traffic signals PRIBUSS SPOT FTC-LTA.
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EMPIRICAL LIKELIHOOD CONFIDENCE REGION FOR PARAMETERS IN LINEAR ERRORS-IN-VARIABLES MODELS WITH MISSING DATA 被引量:3
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作者 Juan ZHANG Hengjian CUI 《Journal of Systems Science & Complexity》 SCIE EI CSCD 2011年第3期540-553,共14页
The multivariate linear errors-in-variables model when the regressors are missing at random in the sense of Rubin (1976) is considered in this paper. A constrained empirical likelihood confidence region for a parame... The multivariate linear errors-in-variables model when the regressors are missing at random in the sense of Rubin (1976) is considered in this paper. A constrained empirical likelihood confidence region for a parameter β0 in this model is proposed, which is constructed by combining the score function corresponding to the weighted squared orthogonal distance based on inverse probability with a constrained region of β0. It is shown that the empirical log-likelihood ratio at the true parameter converges to the standard chi-square distribution. Simulations show that the coverage rate of the proposed confidence region is closer to the nominal level and the length of confidence interval is narrower than those of the normal approximation of inverse probability weighted adjusted least square estimator in most cases. A real example is studied and the result supports the theory and simulation's conclusion. 展开更多
关键词 Confidence region coverage rate empirical likelihood ratio multivariate linear errors-in- variables model weighted adjusted LS estimation.
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TRACKING ERROR REDUCTION IN CNC MACHINING BY RESHAPING THE KINEMATIC TRAJECTORY 被引量:2
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作者 GUO Jianxin ZHANG Qiang GAO Xiao-Shan 《Journal of Systems Science & Complexity》 SCIE EI CSCD 2013年第5期817-835,共19页
In this paper,a method of reducing the tracking error in CNC machining is proposed.The structured neural network is used to approximate the discontinuous friction in CNC machining,which has jump points and uncertainti... In this paper,a method of reducing the tracking error in CNC machining is proposed.The structured neural network is used to approximate the discontinuous friction in CNC machining,which has jump points and uncertainties.With the estimated nonlinear friction function,the reshaped trajectory can be computed from the desired one by solving a second order ODE such that when the reshaped trajectory is fed into the CNC controller,the output is the desired trajectory and the tracking error is eliminated in certain sense.The proposed reshape method is also shown to be robust with respect to certain parameters of the dynamic system. 展开更多
关键词 CNC controller ROBUSTNESS structured neural network tracking error.
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