三辊弯板内承式机组经验调型参数计算及确定方法

三辊弯板内承式螺旋焊管机组调型参数是保证焊管成型质量及其稳定性的一个重要因素。根据调型参数理论设计公式和实际试验研究分析,提出了生产中实用的计算公式及确定方法,为螺旋焊管稳定成型提供了可靠依据。

三辊弯板机中带钢变形过程的力学分析与建模

在螺旋焊管的成形过程中,带钢要经过弹塑性大挠度的弯曲变形过程,由于此过程非常复杂,涉及到材料和接触的非线性,其理论解析十分困难,目前还不具备统一的模型。本文根据梁的塑性弯曲工程理论,对三辊式弯板机构中带钢的成形和变形过程进行了分析,建立了带钢的力学计算模型。该力学模型为推导三辊弯板机的理论调型参数方程奠定了基础。

Rock skeleton models and seismic porosity inversion

By substituting rock skeleton modulus expressions into Gassmann approximate fluid equation, we obtain a seismic porosity inversion equation. However, conventional rock skeleton models and their expressions are quite different from each other, resuling in different seismic porosity inversion equations, potentially leading to difficulties in correctly applying them and evaluating their results. In response to this, a uniform relation with two adjusting parameters suitable for all rock skeleton models is established from an analysis and comparison of various conventional rock skeleton models and their expressions including the Eshelby-Walsh, Pride, Geertsma, Nur, Keys-Xu, and Krief models. By giving the two adjusting parameters specific values, different rock skeleton models with specific physical characteristics can be generated. This allows us to select the most appropriate rock skeleton model based on geological and geophysical conditions, and to develop more wise seismic porosity inversion. As an example of using this method for hydrocarbon prediction and fluid identification, we apply this improved porosity inversion, associated with rock physical data and well log data, to the ZJ basin. Research shows that the existence of an abundant hydrocarbon reservoir is dependent on a moderate porosity range, which means we can use the results of seismic porosity inversion to identify oil reservoirs and dry or water-saturated reservoirs. The seismic inversion results are closely correspond to well log porosity curves in the ZJ area, indicating that the uniform relations and inversion methods proposed in this paper are reliable and effective.

螺旋焊管波浪压痕的消除

简要介绍和分析了螺旋焊管生产过程中产生的波浪压痕及其成因,并给出了消除方法。通过生产实践证明,在螺旋焊管生产过程中,经过理论计算,只要能准确地给出成型器1～3号微型辊组的位置参数,就能够消除焊管管体的波浪压痕。

Cluster of Strong Earthquakes and Aftershocks in Ahar-Varzeghan Area on August 11, 2012

Seismic events are very complex spatial-temporal phenomena. Seismic catalogues, reporting information about spatial-temporal distribution of the main shocks, are nowadays available for many seismic areas in the world, very often major events mark the beginning of a series of earthquakes （aflershocks） whose frequency and energy are meanly decreasing in time down to the background level of activity. Azerbaijan is one of the most active segments of the Alpine-Himalayan seismic belt and marks the junction between the African-Arabian and Indian plate to the south, and Eurasian plate to the north. The cluster of earthquakes that struck near Varzeghan-Ahar was centered near the Gosha-Dagh fault, but preliminary data suggested that the fault was not responsible for the temblor. On the late afternoon of Saturday, August 11, 2012, the northwest of Iran was shaken by two of the strong earthquakes in Iranian history. First was hit by Mw （moment magnitude scale） = 6.4 Richter at local time 16：54 （12：23 GMT （Greenwich Mean Time））, and about 11 min later, an Mw = 6.3 struck 10 km to the west. The spatial-temporal clustering of micro earthquakes （aftershocks） near Varzeghan, is parameterized by means of a generalized passion model. The region has known faults but numerous smaller or deeply buried faults remain undated, according to the Geological Survey of Iran.

On nonparametric change point estimator based on empirical characteristic functions

We propose a nonparametric change point estimator in the distributions of a sequence of independent observations in terms of the test statistics given by Huˇskov′a and Meintanis(2006) that are based on weighted empirical characteristic functions. The weight function ω(t; a) under consideration includes the two weight functions from Huˇskov′a and Meintanis(2006) plus the weight function used by Matteson and James(2014),where a is a tuning parameter. Under the local alternative hypothesis, we establish the consistency, convergence rate, and asymptotic distribution of this change point estimator which is the maxima of a two-side Brownian motion with a drift. Since the performance of the change point estimator depends on a in use, we thus propose an algorithm for choosing an appropriate value of a, denoted by a_s which is also justified. Our simulation study shows that the change point estimate obtained by using a_s has a satisfactory performance. We also apply our method to a real dataset.

Parametric sensitivity analysis of precipitation and temperature based on multi-uncertainty quantification methods in the Weather Research and Forecasting model

Sensitivity analysis(SA) has been widely used to screen out a small number of sensitive parameters for model outputs from all adjustable parameters in weather and climate models, helping to improve model predictions by tuning the parameters. However, most parametric SA studies have focused on a single SA method and a single model output evaluation function, which makes the screened sensitive parameters less comprehensive. In addition, qualitative SA methods are often used because simulations using complex weather and climate models are time-consuming. Unlike previous SA studies, this research has systematically evaluated the sensitivity of parameters that affect precipitation and temperature simulations in the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model using both qualitative and quantitative global SA methods. In the SA studies, multiple model output evaluation functions were used to conduct various SA experiments for precipitation and temperature. The results showed that five parameters(P3, P5, P7, P10, and P16) had the greatest effect on precipitation simulation results and that two parameters(P7 and P10) had the greatest effect for temperature. Using quantitative SA, the two-way interactive effect between P7 and P10 was also found to be important, especially for precipitation. The microphysics scheme had more sensitive parameters for precipitation, and P10(the multiplier for saturated soil water content) was the most sensitive parameter for both precipitation and temperature. From the ensemble simulations, preliminary results indicated that the precipitation and temperature simulation accuracies could be improved by tuning the respective sensitive parameter values, especially for simulations of moderate and heavy rain.