针对大型梯级水电年末预留水位优化问题,提出在给定置信度条件下的来水在险值(inflow at risk,IaR)方法,用以计算第1年可靠来水流量,并构建以发电收益最大化为目标的全景梯级水电跨年随机优化调度模型,使得年末预留水位能够适应第2年多...针对大型梯级水电年末预留水位优化问题,提出在给定置信度条件下的来水在险值(inflow at risk,IaR)方法,用以计算第1年可靠来水流量,并构建以发电收益最大化为目标的全景梯级水电跨年随机优化调度模型,使得年末预留水位能够适应第2年多种来水情况下的运行约束。采用条件风险价值(conditional value at risk,CVaR)指标衡量发电收益风险,并建立将发电收益经济性与风险性统一的双层规划模型。针对所建混合整数线性规划模型的解算,提出了主、子问题一体控制的最优奔德斯(Benders)分解方法,并对模型进行求解。对一个2级梯级水电站系统进行仿真分析,结果表明,所提出的全景跨年随机优化调度模型在不同风险偏好下,可以有效提高梯级水电站的跨年发电收益、减少弃水量,同时验证了最优奔德斯分解策略的高效性。展开更多
Abrupt changes in freshwater inputs from large rivers usually imply regime shifts in coastal water environments. The influence of a water regulation event on the age of the Yellow River water in the Bohai was modeled ...Abrupt changes in freshwater inputs from large rivers usually imply regime shifts in coastal water environments. The influence of a water regulation event on the age of the Yellow River water in the Bohai was modeled using constituent-oriented age and residence time theory to better understand the change in the environmental function of the hydrodynamic field owing to human activities. The water ages in Laizhou Bay, the central basin, and the Bohai strait are sensitive to water regulation. The surface ages in those areas can decrease by about 300 days, particularly in July, and the age stratification is also strengthened. A water regulation event can result in declines in the water age in early July ahead of declines in the water age under climatological conditions(without the regulation event) by about 1 and 5 months in the central basin and Laizhou Bay, respectively. The change in the coastal circulation due to the water regulation event is the primary reason for the change in the Yellow River water age. The high Yellow River flow rate can enhance the density flow and, therefore, reduce the age of the Yellow River water. The subsequent impact of a single water regulation event can last about 1.0 to 4.0 years in different subregions.展开更多
文摘针对大型梯级水电年末预留水位优化问题,提出在给定置信度条件下的来水在险值(inflow at risk,IaR)方法,用以计算第1年可靠来水流量,并构建以发电收益最大化为目标的全景梯级水电跨年随机优化调度模型,使得年末预留水位能够适应第2年多种来水情况下的运行约束。采用条件风险价值(conditional value at risk,CVaR)指标衡量发电收益风险,并建立将发电收益经济性与风险性统一的双层规划模型。针对所建混合整数线性规划模型的解算,提出了主、子问题一体控制的最优奔德斯(Benders)分解方法,并对模型进行求解。对一个2级梯级水电站系统进行仿真分析,结果表明,所提出的全景跨年随机优化调度模型在不同风险偏好下,可以有效提高梯级水电站的跨年发电收益、减少弃水量,同时验证了最优奔德斯分解策略的高效性。
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 41176007 and 40706007)
文摘Abrupt changes in freshwater inputs from large rivers usually imply regime shifts in coastal water environments. The influence of a water regulation event on the age of the Yellow River water in the Bohai was modeled using constituent-oriented age and residence time theory to better understand the change in the environmental function of the hydrodynamic field owing to human activities. The water ages in Laizhou Bay, the central basin, and the Bohai strait are sensitive to water regulation. The surface ages in those areas can decrease by about 300 days, particularly in July, and the age stratification is also strengthened. A water regulation event can result in declines in the water age in early July ahead of declines in the water age under climatological conditions(without the regulation event) by about 1 and 5 months in the central basin and Laizhou Bay, respectively. The change in the coastal circulation due to the water regulation event is the primary reason for the change in the Yellow River water age. The high Yellow River flow rate can enhance the density flow and, therefore, reduce the age of the Yellow River water. The subsequent impact of a single water regulation event can last about 1.0 to 4.0 years in different subregions.
