强化货币政策的跨周期调控能力是建设现代中央银行制度的重要内涵。本文依托央行沟通中内含的未来信息,在构建系统性理论分析框架的基础上,探讨纳入央行沟通的货币政策规则,为央行进行跨周期调控提出具体可实施思路。实证结果表明:第一...强化货币政策的跨周期调控能力是建设现代中央银行制度的重要内涵。本文依托央行沟通中内含的未来信息,在构建系统性理论分析框架的基础上,探讨纳入央行沟通的货币政策规则,为央行进行跨周期调控提出具体可实施思路。实证结果表明:第一,我国央行沟通中展示的未来宏观经济信息与政策走势具有较高可信性;第二,我国货币政策制定中会考虑未来经济状态,表现出跨周期调控特征;第三,基于反事实分析得出,我国央行沟通有效地平抑了产出缺口与通胀率的波动,并且央行对产出与通胀之间的偏好会因时而变。最后,本文为增强央行沟通的跨周期调控能力给出了建设性意见。Strengthening the cross-cycle control ability of monetary policy is an important connotation of building a modern central bank system. Relying on the future information contained in the central bank’s communication and based on the construction constructing a systematic theoretical analysis framework, this paper discusses the inclusion of central bank communication in monetary policy rules, and proposes specific and implementable ideas for the central bank to conduct cross-cycle regulation. The empirical results show that: first, the future macroeconomic information and policy trends displayed in the communication of China’s central bank are highly credible;second, China’s monetary policy formulation will consider future economic conditions, indicating the characteristics of cross-cycle regulation;third , based on the counterfactual analysis, it is concluded that China’s central bank communication has effectively stabilized the fluctuation of the output gap and inflation rate, and the central bank’s preference between output and inflation will change from time to time. Finally, this paper gives constructive suggestions for enhancing the cross-cycle regulation ability of central bank communication.展开更多
文摘强化货币政策的跨周期调控能力是建设现代中央银行制度的重要内涵。本文依托央行沟通中内含的未来信息,在构建系统性理论分析框架的基础上,探讨纳入央行沟通的货币政策规则,为央行进行跨周期调控提出具体可实施思路。实证结果表明:第一,我国央行沟通中展示的未来宏观经济信息与政策走势具有较高可信性;第二,我国货币政策制定中会考虑未来经济状态,表现出跨周期调控特征;第三,基于反事实分析得出,我国央行沟通有效地平抑了产出缺口与通胀率的波动,并且央行对产出与通胀之间的偏好会因时而变。最后,本文为增强央行沟通的跨周期调控能力给出了建设性意见。Strengthening the cross-cycle control ability of monetary policy is an important connotation of building a modern central bank system. Relying on the future information contained in the central bank’s communication and based on the construction constructing a systematic theoretical analysis framework, this paper discusses the inclusion of central bank communication in monetary policy rules, and proposes specific and implementable ideas for the central bank to conduct cross-cycle regulation. The empirical results show that: first, the future macroeconomic information and policy trends displayed in the communication of China’s central bank are highly credible;second, China’s monetary policy formulation will consider future economic conditions, indicating the characteristics of cross-cycle regulation;third , based on the counterfactual analysis, it is concluded that China’s central bank communication has effectively stabilized the fluctuation of the output gap and inflation rate, and the central bank’s preference between output and inflation will change from time to time. Finally, this paper gives constructive suggestions for enhancing the cross-cycle regulation ability of central bank communication.
